Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 280816
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Surface high pressure currently centered in the northern Plains
will continue to settle southward through the Nation`s midsection
today bringing the first in a string of days of below average
temperatures. There should be a good blow-up of diurnal cu beginning
around mid-morning and dissipating by early evening. Baring some
persistent and unexpected patches of clouds overnight like those
currently across MN, most locations should fall into the 50s for
lows.

Glass

.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

The long wave trof over eastern NOAM will persist with varying degrees
of intensity through the end of the week and into the weekend ahead,
maintaining below average temperatures across the region. Surface
high pressure will continue to dominate on Tuesday although in a
weakening state. Cooling aloft could produce enough instability
for some spotty diurnal showers, however my confidence is not
great enough to mention in the forecast. The surface pressure
pattern during the later half of the week will largely be
dominated by weak high pressure although there could be subtle
wind shifts/pressure trofs passing southward associated with weak
disturbances in the NNW flow aloft. Any precipitation will be
quite spotty and mainly diurnally driven with probabilities too
low to mention, until Friday/Saturday when the odds are slightly
higher. The main baroclinic zone and threat of organized showers
and thunderstorms will remain well southwest/south of the CWA.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Northwest winds near or below 10KT tonight will increase and become
gusty once again by mid- morning on Monday, but not quite as gusty
as on Sunday afternoon. Through the day, winds will slowly veer
to a more northerly direction before becoming light
northerly/light and variable overnight Monday night. Expect
diurnal cumulus to return on Monday as well, and while most
locations should see scattered coverage, models indicate several
hours of broken ceilings Monday morning through early Monday
afternoon that could affect metro area TAF sites. However,
ceilings will be around 5000ft, thus, VFR flight conditions will
prevail through the period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Light northwest winds tonight will increase and gust to around
18KT by late morning on Monday. Expect diurnal cumulus to develop
by around 15Z, and with cooler air aloft and models indicating
steepening lapse rates, broken ceilings are expected for at least
several hours from late Monday morning through Monday afternoon.
However, cloudcover should scatter out by late afternoon and then
clear, with winds becoming light northerly overnight. VFR through
the period.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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