Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290911

311 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2015

Majority of forecast area remains somewhat dry early this morning
with just some light rain/drizzle in the far north, far east and far
southern portions of forecast area as of 09z. Will see precipitation
on the increase today as next shortwave slides through region. Best
chances of rain will still be across the far northern and far
southern sections of cwa, so adjusted pops accordingly. However, QPF
amounts will be rather light, less than a tenth of an inch.
Otherwise, due to the clouds and light rain, highs will only be in
the upper 30s to upper 40s.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2015

Upper level low and shortwave over central Rockies to lift
northeastward towards forecast area tonight. This will help to
develop a surface low over west central Missouri on Monday,
strengthening and lifting northeast into Iowa by Monday night, so
will see another round of rain, with best chances along and north of
I70. The QPF expected with this round will be around a quarter of an
inch or less. Rain to taper off by daybreak on Tuesday. Lows tonight
and Monday night will be in the low 30s to low 40s with highs in the
low 40s to low 50s both Monday and Tuesday.

Beyond that, extended models are still indicating a dry period from
Tuesday through next Saturday as upper level ridging builds in. Near
normal temperatures expected through midweek, before warming up a
bit above normal for the last half of the work week and into next


.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

IFR/low MVFR ceilings will continue to prevail along and south of
the I-70 corridor for the rest of the night. The three TAFs in the
STL Metro area look to remain right on the edge all night, but
current thinking is that ceilings below 1000 FT will creep back
north before sunrise. An area of light rain will affect parts of
the region on Sunday...not sure exactly where it will end up, but
best chances still look over central and northeast MO as well as
west central and parts of southwest IL. Ceilings will be highly
dependent on areal coverage and intensity of rain...tho generally
speaking I expect higher ceilings (VFR/MVFR) over central/west
central IL, with lower ceilings across central through southeast
MO and southern IL.

Specifics for KSTL:

Ceilings around 1000 ft will prevail at Lambert for the rest of
the night into Sunday morning. Think it likely that the ceiling
will dip into IFR territory at some point before sunrise, though
I`m uncertain as to exactly when. There is a chance for some rain
by mid to late morning, tho I did not mention it in the TAF
because current thinking is that most of the rain will stay
west/northwest of the terminal. Ceilings should improve during the
late morning/early afternoon, but I think it unlikely the ceilings
will get above 2000 ft until later in the period.


Saint Louis     45  39  50  38 /  40  30  60  40
Quincy          41  36  43  34 /  50  50  70  40
Columbia        41  37  46  33 /  60  60  70  30
Jefferson City  41  38  48  33 /  50  50  70  30
Salem           47  41  51  41 /  20  30  50  40
Farmington      44  38  50  36 /  40  30  40  30



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