Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 020828
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EARLY EACH
AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP HOLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LAFLIN

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/BR,
PRIMARILY IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 4-5SM,
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECT KSTL.
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING NEAR MIDDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

GLASS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     94  74  94  75 /   5   5  10   5
QUINCY          92  69  92  70 /  10   5  10   5
COLUMBIA        92  69  93  70 /  10   5   5   0
JEFFERSON CITY  92  69  93  70 /   5   5   5   5
SALEM           92  70  91  70 /  10   5  10   5
FARMINGTON      92  68  92  68 /  10   5   5   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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