Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 311123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM: (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WILL START OUT DRY TODAY...BUT HAVE KEPT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BY 12Z ONCE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREA OVERNIGHT.

MOS HIGHS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MIXING DOWN
850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS AREA
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.  DEEP MIXING EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 90S.

(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WHILE OVERALL FLOW WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
PERIOD...A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY-MID WEEK WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNEDAY.  850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 20C...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY AT UIN. HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY ISOD TSRA EXPECTED...CHANCES OF IMPACTING THE TERMINAL ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. OTHERWISE...WLY WINDS WILL VEER TO NWLY
TODAY AND BECOME VRB TONIGHT.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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