Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 222050
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
350 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Just a few showers are currently moving across southeast Missouri
into south central Illinois.  These are occurring on the northern
periphery of Tropical Depression Cindy.  Moisture and showers
associated with Cindy will be confined to the southeastern part of
the CWA while an shortwave trough moves across Iowa into Illinois in
the mid-level flow. This will in turn cause the cold front that is
currently over the Upper Midwest to drop south across the region
late tonight and on Friday at the same time the remnants from Cindy
moves northeast across Arkansas and Kentucky.  Have kept high
chance/low likely PoPs for showers and thunderstorms late tonight
through early afternoon on Friday before the rain moves southeast of
the area by late in the afternoon.

Agreeable MOS guidance looks good for lows tonight.  Highs tomorrow
will be closer to the SREF mean MOS temperatures.


Britt


.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Much cooler and drier weather will be the rule beginning Friday
night and lasting through the weekend and at least through early
next week.

Longwave trough will carve out across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS
this weekend and early next week with northwest flow aloft across
the mid-Mississippi Valley. There looks to be at least a few
reinforcing shots of cooler air behind individual shortwave troughs
and associated cold fronts. The end result should be 4 days of well
below normal temperatures along with dry weather. While the
possibility of isolated instability showers cannot totally be
ruled out during the afternoon hours Sunday or Monday, better
chance of this activity will be further to the northeast where
stronger mid/upper level forcing will reside.

Very strong surface high (~1025 hPa) will settle into the bi-state
area early next week. This high will slowly slide to the east
Tuesday into Wednesday. Return flow around this high will bring
warm/moist advection which will bring an increasing threat for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly focused on the Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms on the northern periphery of
Cindy will likely stay south across southeast Missouri and south
central Illinois this afternoon and tonight. Meanwhile a cold
front will move southeast across the area late tonight and on
Friday morning bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Ceilings are expected to generally stay between high MVFR or low
VFR through the end of the period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Showers and isolated thunderstorms on the
northern periphery of Cindy will likely stay south of the
terminal this afternoon and this evening. A cold front will move
through the terminal on Friday morning bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Ceilings are expected to generally stay
between high MVFR or low VFR through midday on Friday.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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