Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 140335
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
935 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

Look for VFR conditions through about 15z on Tuesday. Low level
wind shear will be a threat across southern Wisconsin early
tonight as surface winds relax, but the low level jet remains
rather strong. A cold front will sweep through the area late
tonight. Clouds will begin spreading south with the cold air
advection on Tuesday. We begin to see some MVFR cigs show up by
early afternoon and linger into Tuesday evening. West to northwest
winds will get gusty on Tuesday with steep low level lapse rates.
Those winds will settle down Tuesday evening.

MARINE...

Southwest to west winds will approach small craft advisory
conditions tonight with a few gusts to 25 knots, ahead of an
approaching trough of low pressure from the northwest. That trough
and its associated cold front will sweep through Lake Michigan
by, or shortly after sunrise on Tuesday. Look for brisk west to
northwest winds to develop by mid morning on Tuesday and persist
through early to mid afternoon Wednesday. A small craft advisory
is in effect for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

A surface trough and cold front, stretching from low pressure over
Canada and headed toward James Bay, will sweep through Wisconsin
tonight. The front should exit southeast Wisconsin between 3-6 am
Tuesday morning, coming through the area dry. Cold air advection
tomorrow will steepen the low level lapse and likely bring a deck
of clouds with it. The atmosphere remains very dry, but we could
squeeze out some rain/snow showers north of Milwaukee and Madison
during the afternoon, probably ending before evening. Expect the
clouds to linger. We do have a rather potent mid level short wave
pushing thru in the afternoon to help support that weak
convection.

Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure slides across the area during this period. Wednesday
will be the coolest day of the week with some warm air advection
trying to get starting during the afternoon on Thursday as the
ridge slides east. Still dry, but we`ll have to watch the WAA for
any light shower development.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is high.

This is still looking like a very mild and dry period. Another low
pressure system will track across southern Canada Friday into
early Saturday. Southerly winds ahead of the trough will pull a
very mild airmass north into the region. 925mb temps will be
pushing +10 to 11C, but this peak occurs Friday night, with some
cooling on Saturday as the trough passes by. For now, it looks
fairly certain we`ll see highs in the lower to mid 50s through
this period. But, there is potential we could get even warmer,
especially on Saturday if that trough slows down.

Monday...Forecast confidence is medium.

Low pressure is expected to form over the central plains by early
next week. This should bring a deeper surge of moisture into the
region resulting in increasing chances of rain for Monday into
Tuesday of next week. Still mild for sure.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Look for VFR conditions through about 18z on Tuesday. Low level
wind shear will be a threat across southern Wisconsin this evening
between 02-09z Tue as surface winds relax, but the low level jet
remains rather strong. A cold front will sweep through the area
late tonight, reaching KMSN about 08-09z Tuesday and KMKE by 12z
Tue. Clouds will begin spreading south with the cold air advection
on Tuesday. We begin to see some MVFR cigs show up by early
afternoon and linger into Tuesday evening. West to northwest winds
will get gusty on Tuesday with steep low level lapse rates. Those
winds will settle down Tuesday evening.

MARINE...

Southwest winds will approach small craft advisory conditions
tonight, ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure from the
northwest. That trough and its associated cold front will sweep
through Lake Michigan by, or shortly after sunrise on Tuesday.
Look for brisk west to northwest winds to develop by mid morning
on Tuesday and persist through early to mid afternoon Wednesday. A
small craft advisory is in effect at 9 am Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hentz
TONIGHT/Tuesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday...Davis



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