Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 140242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
942 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016

.UPDATE...Frost Advisory remains in effect for early Fri morning.
Temps have been falling into the 30s where winds have decoupled.
Lower to middle 30s is the forecast with upper 30s to lower 40s
near Lake MI. Sly winds and warm advection will then increase on


.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are
expected for Fri and Fri evening although clouds will begin to
increase from the west Fri evening. Sly winds will likely gust in
the lower 20 kt range Fri afternoon. LLWS may be possible Fri
evening and overnight via a strong low level jet stream.


.MARINE...Small Craft Advisories will go into effect Fri afternoon
and evening and will last into Sat night. Breezy sly winds will
develop Fri afternoon and last through Sat. High waves will become
prevalent from Port Washington to north of Sheboygan.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016/

Tonight And Friday...Forecast Confidence Is High.

High pressure will slide off to the east of the region tonight into
Friday. The combination of light winds, clearing skies and lows in
the lower 30s away from Lake Michigan should lead to areas of frost
developing. Locations near the lakeshore should remain a bit warmer,
and may not see as much frost.

However, should see enough in the western portions of the lakeshore
counties to include all counties in the Frost Advisory later tonight
into early Friday morning.

South winds Friday will increase during the day, with mostly sunny
skies expected. Highs should rise closer to or a little above
seasonal normals, in the lower to mid 60s in most areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is high.

We`ll be stuck between high pressure to the east and low pressure
approaching from the west. The milder southerly flow will be dry,
so rather mild with lows in the lower to mid 50s.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

This is a rather active and unsettled period with a few rounds of
rainfall expected. We see our first chances arrive Saturday
afternoon in a shot of warm air advection ahead of the approaching
low pressure trough/cold front. Then Saturday night the trough
and cold front drop in likely bringing a round of showers and
storms. SPC day 3 has us in a marginal risk for severe storms. We
do see enough instability and shear with the arrival of a decent
mid level short wave to support that risk. We could see things
quiet down briefly on Sunday before the front that just moved
through heads back north as a warm front later Sunday into Sunday
night. The warm front will have a surge of warm air advection
with another mid level wave accompanying it to keep the chcs for
rain fairly high Sunday night. We finally quiet down on Monday as
we get into a nice dry warm sector ahead of another advancing low.
But, that low will track well to our north along the
U.S./Canadian border.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

If that low stays well to our north on Monday, we should see high
pressure build in as that low pushes off to the east. So we could
have some dry weather for most of next week.


Clear skies are expected tonight into Friday across the area, as
high pressure slides east of the region. Light to calm winds are
expected tonight, with increasing south winds on Friday. Winds may
back southeast at Milwaukee and Kenosha Friday afternoon. Some gusts
in the 15 to 20 knot range are possible Friday afternoon.


Increasing south winds Friday afternoon will gust to near 25 knots
north of Port Washington, and build waves to 3 to 4 feet. A Small
Craft Advisory begins at 19Z Friday in this area.

A Small Craft Advisory begins elsewhere at 03Z Saturday, as a tight
pressure gradient will allow for frequent south gusts of 25 knots.
Waves should build to 3 to 6 feet north of Port Washington, and 3 to
4 feet elsewhere.

The Small Craft Advisory ends at 00Z Sunday south of Port
Washington, and at 06Z Sunday north of there, as the waves subside
below 4 feet.


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ046-047-051-

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for



Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...Davis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.