Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU SRN WI. VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SHOW LOW-MID
LEVEL TROFFING CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. WL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS THRU MID MRNG...AS THIS WAVE EXITS SRN WI.

BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE KEEPING WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WEST. THIS AREA WAS ON PERIPHERY OF MID-CLOUDS...AND RECENT
RAINFALL HAS KEPT THIS AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH.
KEFT DOWN TO 1/2NM BR BUT CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN SHORTLY...KEEPING
PERSISTENT DENSE FOG AT BAY THRU 12Z.

AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST LATER TODAY...WITH PWAT VALUES
HANGING AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP INLAND...WHICH APPEARS TO BE WEAK
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU IN REGION. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SET OFF AT LEAST SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA AS AFTN MUCAPE
REACHING 500-1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE IN
THIS AREA...LESS THAN 20 KTS. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 10 KTS. WL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN HWO.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NEXT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WILL BE
TRANSLATING SSE TODAY...AND SHOULD PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WI
TNGT. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS STRONGER WAVE...AS
DEPICTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GEM ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN WI OVERNIGHT...WHILE ECMWF AND GFS WEAKER. AXIS
OF LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES ACROSS SRN WI...WITH AN
INCREASE IN COLUMN RH.

DESPITE WEAKER SYNOPTIC FORCING ON GFS...THIS GUIDANCE STILL
CARRIES AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER WRN CWA
DURING THE NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WARRANT BEEFING UP
POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THEY PROGRESS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SE WI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT UPSTREAM NEAR SEVERE OR SEVERE STORMS WOULD
WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY ADVANCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
DURING THE EVE. LIKELY TO HAVE MORE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
LACK OF ANY DRY AIR INTRUSION.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET
STREAK ALSO SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB THEN
LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. NAM/GFS
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING
TUESDAY...WITH WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES UP TO AROUND 600 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK TO MODEST. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...HIGHEST IN THE EAST CLOSER TO THE WEAK
UPPER DIVERGENCE.

GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
OCCURS WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA. NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING DURING THIS TIME. KEPT
TUESDAY NIGHT DRY WITH NO UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO SPEAK OF.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR COLLABORATION...BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
BE DRY HERE...WITH MAIN SYSTEM REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS WELL...AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MAY HOLD DOWN
HIGHS MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TO A DRIER LOOK FOR THE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN AT 500 MB SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHIFTING THROUGH AT TIMES. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...AND IT TRIES TO KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD IN THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY PERIOD...KEEPING SOME LOW
POPS FOR COLLABORATION. AGAIN...COULD END UP BEING DRY FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CONTINUED WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

APPEARS LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO CIGS
REMAINING HIGHER THIS MORNING IN ERN AREAS. MVFR MAY YET AFFECT
KMSN FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AS UPSTREAM -SHRA MOVE SWD.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY A VFR PERIOD WITH SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.
CIGS AND VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS SHOULD THESE SHOWERS MAKE
A DIRECT HIT ON TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS LATE TNGT IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD


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