Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 240839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.