Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



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