Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170853
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today...Forecast confidence is high.

We`ll see fairly rapid column saturation this afternoon due to
steady warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the approaching
trough of low pressure. Much of the morning should stay dry across
southern Wisconsin, though we could see some showers push into
areas west of Madison after about 11 am. The rain will become
widespread by mid afternoon, continuing into the evening. The
consensus has the rain reaching Madison by noon-1 pm and Milwaukee
about 2-3 pm. There is some very minor, and very elevated CAPE in
the soundings, but doesn`t look sufficient to include thunder at
this time.

Tonight through Saturday...Forecast confidence is high:

Strengthening low pressure is expected to move through central or
northern IL tonight, heading northeast into Ontario Saturday.
Decent moisture surge with this low, as precipitable water values
will be around an inch this evening. The first round of rain will
continue during the evening hours, but it looks mostly dry then
overnight between areas of better forcing. Rain will then pick
back up Saturday morning across the forecast area, winding down
west to east during the afternoon.

Still looks like the rain could mix with or change over to snow
for a time late Sat morning into the afternoon before the precip
comes to an end. Not expecting any accumulations though, as the
window of opportunity for snow will be short lived and any snow
that does fall will likely melt quickly.

Gusty winds are expected on the back side of the low Saturday.

.LONG TERM...

Sunday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will be in place for much of the time Sunday through
the middle of next week. Models do bring a wave through Monday
night into early Tuesday, but kept the dry forecast going due to
limited available moisture.

Temps are expected to be chilly Sunday behind the departing low,
but then will likely recover nicely on Monday with temps
approaching or hitting the 50 degree mark. Cooler temps will
return for mid-week behind the departing trough.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

The MVFR CIGS across the area early this morning will lift to VFR
levels by about mid morning as drier air surges north ahead of
approaching trough. However, these improved conditions will only
last for about 4-6 hours as moisture will surge back in from west
to east. Look for CIGS to drop to MVFR levels again between 18-22z
across southern WI, with IFR CIGS/VSBYS tonight. The CIGS/VSBYS
will be lowering in response to rain spreading across the area
this afternoon and continuing through tonight.

Southerly winds will increase rapidly this morning with gusts by
mid morning pushing 24-28kts. The winds will diminish tonight as
a trough of low pressure moves overhead. Then strong northwest
winds kick in for Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

A small craft advisory remains in effect today and tonight due to
strong southerly winds and rapidly building waves ahead of an
approaching trough of low pressure. Winds will veer to the
northwest by Saturday and increase rapidly. A gale warning has
been posted for mid morning on Saturday through Saturday evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for LMZ643>646.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Today and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Tonight through Thursday...DDV



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