Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BECOME
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KNOT SPEED MAX ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  AS A RESULT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 45 KNOT
700 MB SPEED MAX AND 30 KNOT 850 MB MAX. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND BECOMES MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY AND SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SATURATE.

PRECIPITATION TIMING ON THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SLOWER 4 KM MESO MODELS.  PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER MESO MODELS.

LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF. WILL
GO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MODIFIED A LITTLE FOR
COLLABORATION.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS TOWARD RAW
2 METER MODEL TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WOULD DEFINITELY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OTHER
MODELS ARE QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS AT THIS POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 BY MID OR LATE WEEK VIA THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER TO IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV


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