Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 172346 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
646 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Localized patchy fog
is not out of the question tonight, but given current clouds and
upstream clouds, any fog development should be limited.

Showers and a few storms are possible later Monday into Monday
night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017)

TONIGHT AND MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...High.

Cold advection will cease later this evening with the core of high
pressure to track from the Middle Mo River Valley to nrn WI.
Middle to high clouds will increase late tnt via warm advection.
The drier airmass and some clouds should limit any organized areas
of fog.

For Mon, a shortwave trough and 850-700 mb warm, moist advection
will affect srn WI late in the day. The Moisture transport will
arrive into sw WI for late afternoon thus PoPs range from likely sw
of Madison to slight chance for portions of ern WI. Some sunshine is
expected on Mon especially over ern WI so 70 degree temps are
forecast once again. However, nely winds may keep temps in the upper
60s near the lake.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Surge of warm air and moisture advection will continue across
southern Wisconsin Monday evening.  With enhanced synoptic lift from
right entrance region of upper jet, wl continue likely wording
across western CWA for a time, with high chance in the east. Deeper
moisture gets shunted off to the east later Monday night as low
level jet focuses farther west in the northern Plains ahead of
digging short wave advancing eastward from the northern U.S.
rockies.

Increasing warm air advection and approaching cold front
will increase the chance for more showers and a few storms affecting
southern WI later Tuesday night, and continuing into Wednesday.
Despite cold front weakening as it progresses across WI, elevated
CAPE 1-2K joules on Wed.  At this point, thinking enough breaks in
the cloud cover can be anticipated resulting in destabilization.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

For much of this period, a sprawling high pressure ridge will be
located over the eastern CONUS while several tropical systems moving
through the western Atlantic. In contrast, persistent long wave
troffing will be located over the western CONUS through this period.
Colder low level temperatures associated with the upstream trof will
remain west of Wisconsin while warmer southwest low level flow
results in continued above normal temperatures for southern WI.

The downstream high pressure ridge will expand westward into the
Great Lakes for much of the period.  Hence dry conditions can be
expected for the bulk of the period with the abnormally dry
conditions over southern WI most likely expanding.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tonight and Monday. A Chance
of showers for late Mon aft for south central WI. Cigs will fall to
4-6 kft.

MARINE...Wnwly winds will become nely for Mon-Mon nt. Waves of
3-4 feet are possible north of North Point Lighthouse on Mon.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...DDV
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Monday Night through Sunday...MBK



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