Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT


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