Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART






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