Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 091548
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
948 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Breaks in the clouds in the twin ports and along the north shore
at forecast issuance time. Satellite does indicate clouds starting
to fill in and will continue to fill in rest of the morning. The
rest of the day should be mostly cloudy and will put in flurries
across the forecast area. Rest of forecast unchanged.

UPDATE Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Still a few snow shower bands showing up on radar, but overall a
decrease in shower activity as weak high pressure builds today.
Another weak short wave will brush the arrowhead with light snow
again tonight though no snowfall accumulation is expected. High
pressure builds again on Sunday for another break between short
waves.

No real concerns, but wind chills this morning in Cook County
will approach -20 F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

This week will feature a series of weak Canadian Clippers
bringing light snow to the Northland. The first two Clippers, one
early in the week and the other in the middle of the week, will
bring a usual blast of Arctic air. Temperatures will be near or
below normal, with the coldest stretch of weather Monday into
Tuesday.

A Canadian Clipper will likely track from the Canadian Prairies
through northern Minnesota Sunday night and through western and
southern Wisconsin Monday. The good agreement between the 00Z GFS
and 00Z European on this track is why this seems to be the likely
track. The clipper will bring a period of moderate forcing for
ascent, likely generating a large swath of 1 to 2 inches of snow
across the Northland. Most of the snow will fall overnight, but
there will be a little lingering snow in northwest Wisconsin after
dawn. The 00Z Canadian and 00Z NAM12 have a track more to the north,
but still result in 1 to 2 inches of snow for the Northland.

The Northland will see its next blast of Arctic air in the wake of
the early Monday Clipper. Confident in widespread northerly wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph Monday afternoon and evening, and the gusts
could be as high as 35 mph. There will be strong cold air advection
and pressure rises, and good and relatively deep mixing. The GFS and
NAM12 have 25 to 35 knots within the mixing layer. Snow flurries are
possible through Monday afternoon and evening. An additional 2
inches of snow is likely for areas along and near the Gogebic Range
in northern Wisconsin because of lingering lake effect snow Monday
afternoon through Monday night.

A weak area of high pressure will move through the Northland Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but then another, weaker, Clipper will dive
south and move through the Northern Plains and/or western Great
Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This clipper may only bring a
light coating to around 1 inch of snow. However, the GFS has a
stronger Clipper than the European and Canadian, and suggests the
potential for another 1 to 2 inches. This Clipper might also bring
another period of gusty winds with its northerly blast of Arctic
air, but less confident because of the various modeled tracks.

The GFS, European, and Canadian suggest another weak Clipper could
track from Manitoba through or near Ontario and/or the Minnesota
Arrowhead sometime late Friday through Saturday. This could bring a
light coating of snow to some areas of the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Expect cold and gusty northerly winds early today. The widespread
MVFR ceilings and lingering light snow will probably scatter and
diminish this morning with the weakening winds, but there is a
possibility the MVFR could linger into this afternoon. Widespread
VFR conditions are likely by early this afternoon.

A weak area of low pressure will move southeast through the region
tonight. It will bring high cloud this afternoon and evening,
followed by low cloud cover in its wake later tonight. Some areas
will probably get or flirt with MVFR ceilings around and after
midnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  13  24  16 /  10  10   0  80
INL  14  10  20  10 /  10  10  10  80
BRD  21  17  28  22 /   0  10  10  70
HYR  16  11  26  15 /  10  10  10  70
ASX  18  14  25  15 /  40  20  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ003-004.

MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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