Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271127 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
627 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. THERE WERE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NW WI AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 37 IN HINCKLEY TO
THE LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS THE
EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OVERALL WEATHER WILL
BE FAIRLY COMPLEX AND CHANGEABLE TODAY. WE SHOULD START OUT THE
DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BROUGHT THE PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN MONTANA
BORDER...AND ANOTHER NEAR THE MANITOBA LAKES WILL MERGE INTO ONE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE
INTO ONE DOMINANT TROUGH. A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE TWO STREAMS MERGE...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN AND WI...WITH
GENERALLY LOW POP SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 60 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA GIVEN SUNSHINE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MN BY LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD. WITH HEIGHT FALLS LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA
BY MIDDAY...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MOISTURE WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TWIN PORTS AND FAR NORTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE MN ARROWHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE
INCHES OF WET SNOW TO THE GRIDS...AND THAT WOULD MAINLY BE ON
GRASSY AREAS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROAD AND SIDEWALK
ACCUMULATION AS WELL DUE TO EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE TODAY BUT WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST BY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL UNDER COOL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEEPENING LOW
NEAR SOUTHERN JAMES BAY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

LIGHT LINGERING PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE A
MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST THERE WILL INITIALLY BE A DEEP SATURATED COLUMN WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SNOW ALOFT...BUT THE RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
DOWN LOW COULD MELT THE PCPN TO RAIN OR PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
SATURATION ALOFT WILL DISAPPEAR...WHICH WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. THEREFORE...KEPT THE FORECAST A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE. ADDED LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME HINTS OF VERY LIGHT PCPN...BUT IN THE ABSENCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF PCPN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR.

HALLOWEEN WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS SEEN THIS FALL SO FAR. THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR A SUNNY DAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  40  45  34 /  30  50  50  40
INL  58  39  42  32 /  40  60  60  50
BRD  58  39  45  32 /  30  40  40  10
HYR  58  41  48  35 /  30  40  40  40
ASX  57  42  50  36 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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