Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 221738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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