Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261734
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 345AM...THERE WAS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WAS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES...NEGLIGIBLE WIND...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO.

TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. COLD AND RELATIVELY HUMID NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...FROM DOUGLAS TO
IRON...WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED
SNOWFALL TOTALS QUITE A BIT OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY LEANING
ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS PCPN...IN PARTICULAR THE WRF RAW
AND NMM. THERE COULD BE ENHANCED DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH THIS SNOW
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING ENHANCED LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
NEAR -15 DEGREES CELSIUS ALOFT. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM DOUGLAS TO IRON...BUT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES CAN EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES.

TONIGHT...THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER NW WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. WE MIGHT NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SOME AREAS
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR WIND CHILLS
AROUND -20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH OF THE
REGION CAN EXPECT SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LINGERING...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A QUITE ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS THE
REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN A ZONAL FLOW...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES THAT WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON A H85 LOW THAT TRANSLATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FROM ALBERTA...EAST TO ONTARIO DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT
ACROSS MN AND INTO WI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR FZDZ AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FZDZ
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT H85 TEMPS INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM NOSE WILL
REACH. AS THE H50 CLOSED LOW TRACKS OVER ONTARIO SATURDAY...A SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG CAA AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLDEST READINGS ARRIVE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE H50 TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
ONTARIO AND OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECM/GEM ALL SUGGEST H85 TEMPS AROUND NEGATIVE 20 C...SKIRT
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...WITH READINGS APPROACHING NEGATIVE 30 C
RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO SLY FLOW/WAA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER/COLD FRONT THAT TRACKS OVER
THE REGION MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT
INL...AT THE OUTSET. HOWEVER...AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. THE FLURRIES/MVFR CIGS WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT 10Z AT
HYR DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  -4   9   6 /  60  10   0  70
INL   7 -12   8   2 /  20   0   0  40
BRD  19  -6   9   6 /  80   0   0  80
HYR  25  -1  11   1 /  90  60   0  80
ASX  26   5  13   2 /  90  80  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GSF





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