Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





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