000
FXUS63 KDLH 250930
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECST AREA. AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID-MORNING. REST OF FCST UNCHAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE AND IN THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THEY WILL CONTINUE MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD/WRN MN BORDER MOVING ESE.
THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MN
TODAY AND NW WI TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPES ARE
1500-2000...SHEAR IS 20-40...AND SOME SUN TODAY. SPC HAS THE
FORECAST AREA IN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR WIND/HAIL WITH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER..BY THE AFTERNOON...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z SUN...THEN CONTINUE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE FIRST PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  59  82  59 /  50  40  20  50
INL  75  57  81  56 /  40  40  40  60
BRD  79  58  84  60 /  40  20  10  40
HYR  75  62  85  58 /  50  30  10  50
ASX  75  61  81  57 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE