000
FXUS63 KDLH 091749
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1149 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

DROPPED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FA THIS MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES HAD IMPROVED BEYOND
CRITERIA. SOME ISOLD AREAS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW PER OBS
BUT WEB CAMS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL LIGHT SNOW...MORE OF
A FLURRY SITUATION AND HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IMPROVED THE SKY
COVER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

AFTER MUCH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR OUR
WESTERN CWA...AND ONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF. PRODUCTS AND GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

WEAK LOW WAS PULLING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION IS A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT HAS TRANSITIONED AWAY FROM THE NORTH
SHORE AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT THIS
BAND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING
IN AND WITH LOSS OF LARGER SCALE LIFT. FETCH WILL BE ADEQUATE TO
KEEP THE BAND GOING IN SOME FORM DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
LAKE. WE UPPED POPS OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND INCREASED SNOW
ACCUM TO 1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY. IT WILL BE COLD TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING TOO FAR FROM THE READINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN TEMPS WILL FALL. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
AN ISSUE TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS AROUND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE
WALKER/BRAINERD LAKES/GRAND RAPIDS/AITKIN AREAS WILL WILL SEE THE
COLDEST VALUES THIS MORNING...AROUND 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
WE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY THERE DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME
FRAME FOR THE COLDER WIND CHILLS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND WE CAN ISSUE IF CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE OVER A LONGER PERIOD.

WE DID ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AND A WEAK RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THERE...BUT WE FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THE ARROWHEAD/IRON
RANGE AT THIS TIME. OTHER AREAS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AS WELL FOR A
TIME...BUT THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY STABILIZE TEMPS AND THEN CAUSE THEM TO RISE AS THE CLOUDS
THICKEN FURTHER. THE DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS THE NEED FOR AN EXPANDED
ADVISORY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING LOOKS STRONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF/THIRD. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VERY COLD THROUGH
THE COLUMN WHICH WILL LIMIT DENDRITIC GROWTH. HOWEVER THE
850-700MB LAYER LOOKS TO BE LESS STABLE THAN WHAT OCCUR ED
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES TONIGHT. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A VERY LIMITED TIME FOR SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL ALONG COASTAL LAKE/COOK COUNTIES.

THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING COLD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS IN STORE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. WILL
LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS INTO
EARLY WED AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE NEG TEENS AND 20S ONCE
AGAIN WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE WC VALUES -30 TO -40
AGAIN. HOWEVER...BY THUR AFTERNOON WEAK WAA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SW AND BUMP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE
ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...AND THEREFORE BE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE U.P. THAN IN
NRN WI. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
CORNUCOPIA TO HURLEY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
A WEAK S/W MOVES IN FROM THE NW AND BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND THUR MORNING. AMTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LESS
THAN AN INCH. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SUN...AS
AN ACTIVE BUT RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN SETS UP. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW IN TERMS OF TIMING AND DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...SO HAVE
JUST SLGT CHC POPS MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...BUT THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH -SN. THERE SHOULD
BE CLEARING SKIES AND  DECREASING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE CIGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THEN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE KBRD/KDLH/KHYR WILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH -SN TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I MUCH LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT FARTHER
NORTH AT KHIB AND KINL. THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS COULD REMAIN VFR.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS IN THE 3 TO
5 KFT RANGE MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -1 -13   2 -18 /  10  60  20  10
INL  -3 -22  -3 -24 /  30  40  10  10
BRD  -3 -10   4 -21 /  10  60  10  10
HYR   3 -16   5 -21 /  10  70  40  10
ASX   5  -7   7 -11 /  20  70  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-037.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI