058
FXUS63 KDLH 291126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northern
Ontario will not be moving anywhere in a hurry through Tuesday. It
will mainly spin and slowly drift north and east through Ontario.
This low will maintain cool, humid, and breezy west-northwest flow
across the Northland. Multiple shortwave troughs will drop through
the area, helping to develop rain showers.

Today will be the wetter and breezier day. Scattered showers will
develop across the Northland by late this morning. The GFS, NAM,
RAP, and SREF indicate there will be up to a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead, and in the far
southeast forecast in northwest Wisconsin. These areas could see
some isolated, weak thunderstorms. Expect highs in the middle to
upper 50s, with afternoon gusts of 15 to 25 mph. There could be
stray gusts to 30 mph with the heavier showers and the storms.

The showers will taper off this evening around and after sunset.
Another shortwave trough will probably spread additional showers
out of Canada into northern Minnesota later in the night.
Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster temperatures to the lower 40s.

Tuesday will be a similar story to Monday, but not quite as wet
and windy. Also, the threat of thunder looks very low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The upper level trough will continue to move east Tuesday night
into Wednesday with northwest flow over the region. A low level
ridge will be in place over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas by
Wednesday afternoon but will weaken as it moves east into
Thursday. There will be a chance for showers Tuesday evening over
eastern portions of the Northland and over the Arrowhead Thursday,
but most other areas will be dry. Highs Wednesday will be in the
mid sixties to around seventy...and in the upper sixties to mid
seventies Thursday.

Friday also looks like a dry day with shortwave ridging over the
Northern Plains and a surface ridge extending south into the
region. Highs will range from the mid sixties to lower seventies
but be cooler around Lake Superior as off lake winds develop.

The models start to diverge in their solutions over the weekend
and confidence is lower than normal into early next week. The
differences are in how they treat a northern stream shortwave that
will start to affect the region Saturday continuing into Sunday.
The GFS is now stronger with the shortwave but also seems to be
suffering from convective feedback as the wave continues into
Minnesota. The ECMWF which had a stronger low/wave with previous
runs is now weaker and keeps much of the area dry through the
weekend with high pressure. We have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast over the weekend over portions of
the Northland but overall confidence in one model is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

An upper level low will remain over the area today into tonight
and a couple of shortwaves will rotate around this low through the
period. Periods of showers will occur into this evening but
coverage should diminish for most areas later this afternoon into
this evening. A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions will occur for
most areas this morning. We do expect ceilings to lift some
through the day with VFR conditions occurring this afternoon and
evening...mainly across southern TAF sites. MVFR and possible IFR
ceilings will expand again later tonight.

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through much of the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  43  54  42 /  50  20  30  20
INL  54  44  54  42 /  70  30  40  20
BRD  57  45  57  43 /  30  10  30  10
HYR  58  45  56  43 /  50  40  40  20
ASX  58  45  56  44 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Melde