Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180902
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
302 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A fast moving shortwave that is moving across the forecast area
early this morning will continue southeast through this morning.
This shortwave is bringing light snow to areas around the Northwest
Angle as of 2 AM, with temperatures in the 30-34 range. Earlier
there was some rain reported, but temperatures were 34 or warmer.
Expect a few sites are getting a mix, but it should change to snow
as wetbulb effects kick in as dewpoints are in the 20s.  On the back
side of this system as the precipitation moves out, there may be a
brief period of freezing drizzle as there is a short period of
lingering low level moisture as the higher levels dry out.  Do not
expect much of an impact with it as it will happen for only a short
time range at any one location and there is not much moisture
available. Also, would prefer to see lower visibilities associated
with it if we were going to get more than a trace, which I do not
see upstream.  This afternoon this shortwave moves off to the east
quickly and allows cloud cover to decrease.  Have stayed fairly
close to guidance for highs, rising into the low to mid 30s. Tonight
remains quiet and mild with the forecast area in a warm air
advection pattern.  The melting that occurs today may produce some
fog tonight, but location and timing are pretty uncertain and have
left out for now.  Friday the warm air advection pattern continues
initially, followed by a cold front in the afternoon as a low
pressure system moves out of Manitoba into Ontario.  Despite the
melting that will have been going on do not expect much in the way
of low cloud cover or precipitation as there is not much moisture
moving in from the south, our only moisture source being melting
snow.  Temperatures get even warmer than today, with highs in the
mid and upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The Northland will end the week with another mild day. Expect light
westerly winds and temperatures in the low to middle 30s on Saturday.

The focus of the forecast is on a potential winter storm early next
week. The GFS, European, and Canadian have been fairly consistently
indicating a Colorado Low lifting into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region during the Sunday through Monday timeframe since at
least this past Saturday. The latest 00Z models have continued that
trend. This low will likely bring snow to the region, possibly heavy
snow, but it`s just a matter of where. There have been fluctuations
in the projected path of the low, and that is to be expected this
far out since the main wave which will cause this storm is still
well off in the Pacific Ocean (and not within the air balloon
network on the continent). At this point, all we can say is that
there is steadily increasing confidence that the parts of Northland
could get snow of at least 1 inch sometime Sunday through Monday
evening. The best chances for snow currently include east-central
Minnesota, the Minnesota North Shore, and northwest Wisconsin. This
storm could bring heavy snow to parts of the region, so stay tuned
for more updates.

Temperatures will dip back below normal early next week in the wake
of the storm system. Highs will be in the teens for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Low level wind shear will be a concern overnight into the morning
hours due to decoupled winds at the surface, and strong winds
aloft. Ceilings will gradually lower tonight across northeast
Minnesota as low pressure moves in from southern Manitoba. This
will spread freezing drizzle and light snow to INL/HIB. Based on
GFS/RAP/NAM soundings expect the freezing drizzle threat at INL
during the onset of precipitation, whereas HIB could see some
freezing drizzle as precipitation is tapering off late Thursday
morning. Have removed the prevailing snow at HYR/DLH as forecast
guidance has jogged the low a bit further north, which should keep
precipitation on the periphery of these sites.

High pressure will build in behind the departing low. This will
gradually scatter out ceilings Thursday afternoon, and bring a
return to VFR conditions at all terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  22  37  24 /  60   0  10  10
INL  33  20  39  21 /  60  10  30   0
BRD  35  22  40  23 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  33  20  39  25 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  33  22  40  28 /  50   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...WL



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