Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

At 330 AM, skies were mostly clear across the Northland, with only
some high and thin cirrus. Temperatures ranged from 32 at Hibbing
to 54 at the Grand Marais Harbor. Winds were generally light.

Quiet weather will continue today through Wednesday, as we
remain in the warm sector of systems moving across central and
southern Canada. A frontal boundary will extend southeast into
the Minnesota Arrowhead for a time today, before pushing northeast
this afternoon. There should be some high cloud cover at times
today, but overall it should be sunny. Temperatures are expected
to be on the high side of objective guidance today and Wednesday,
and we have raised temps with this morning`s forecast. We should
see widespread temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s today,
and mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. A passage of a cold front on
Wednesday should bring a bit higher cloud cover, but moisture is
so limited that it looks like it will be at least partly sunny.

Winds will become a bit gusty across the region by this afternoon,
with even stronger gusts expected behind the cold front on

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The Northland can expect the relatively warm and dry weather to
continue through the end of the week, but a passing cold front will
likely bring showers (any maybe some thunder) Saturday and Saturday

A surface ridge will build into the Northland from the west
Wednesday night in the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, providing
a clear and cold night across the Northland. Although, the cold
spell is short-lived. An amplifying mid-level ridge will build
into the north-central US Thursday, and breezy southerly flow will
bring in unseasonably warm air into the region. The southerly
flow will continue towards the end of the week. Friday will be the
warmest day with sunny skies and breezy southerly flow. High
temperatures could reach the low 70s Friday, about 20 degrees
above seasonal normal!

A strong low-level jet will develop Friday night, and there will be
increasing humidity. Precipitable water values will increase to
around 1 inch. Passing shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft could
provide the forcing for some showers. An area of low pressure will
lift from the Northern Plains into Manitoba and Ontario Friday night
into Saturday night. Its strong cold front will sweep through the
Northland from west to east late Saturday morning through Sunday
evening. This front will likely bring light to moderate showers
through the Northland. The Canadian and GFS have up to several
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, so it`s worth having a slight chance of
thunder in the forecast.

Cooler and drier air will move into the Northland Saturday night
and Sunday, along with a weak surface ridge. Expect partial
clearing and highs returning to the 50s. The GFS, European, and
Canadian remain in good agreement into Sunday night and Monday. A
quasi-vertically- stacked area of low pressure, somewhat like an
Alberta Clipper, will track across southern Canada to the northern
Great Lakes. This low could bring showers to the Northland Sunday
night and Monday. Temperatures will cool down even more Monday,
with highs in the lower to middle 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites. A
period of low level wind shear is expected tonight into early
Wednesday morning at most sites across northeast Minnesota.
South-southwest winds today remaining light with a few sporadic
gusts to around 15-20 knots possible, then becoming windy by mid-
day Wednesday behind a cold front with southwest to west winds
increasing to around 15 knots with gusts over 25 knots by 18z.


DLH  68  47  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  48  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  69  47  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  71  47  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  71  49  70  40 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140-



LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...JJM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.