Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210019 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KBRD AND KHYR BETWEEN
04Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS BRIEFLY BRING CALM
WINDS TO THESE SITES.

LATEST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AFTER 16Z
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  65  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
INL  38  64  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  43  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  38  67  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  41  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...LE/WL






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