Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 140541
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1141 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Lake effect snow has been occurring along portions of the North
Shore this afternoon/early evening as southerly winds continue.
KCKC has dropped to 1.5miles in light snow and we expect this to
continue this evening before winds veer some and slightly warmer
air arrives. We updated the forecast to reflect a higher chance
for snow along portions of the North Shore through late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Focus for short term is flurries tonight and warming trend
beginning this weekend.

Current surface analysis indicate clouds covering most of the NE
MN forecast area and NW Wi half covered. Some flurries have been
reported out of the clouds so some will put into the grids this
evening. The better news is warm air advection has developed and
will cause warmer temperatures to push into the forecast region.
This trend will continue into next week.

Temperatures overnight will not fall much from current readings
due to cloud cover.Lows tonight will only be in the single figures
below zero with highs Saturday in the middle to upper teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The extended forecast period begins with dry and quiet conditions
Sunday through early Monday morning as sfc high pressure translates
across southern MN Sunday morning. Low level winds from the west
will turn to more of a southwesterly direction, which will enhance
thermal advection, taking temperatures to near normal and above
normal values. Highs Sunday will be in the lower to mid 20s across
the Northland.

As the high pressure departs, an area of low pressure develops over
the TX/OK Panhandle region and translates through the region Monday
and Tuesday. This system will have plenty of support in the upper
levels as 250 mb divergence will accompany the upper level low. In
addition, a secondary mid-level shortwave looks to move out of
Canada and intersects the previously mentioned system over the
region. This should provide good support with two shortwaves in the
region, yet the model soundings disagree on the magnitude of
isentropic lift, with the 13.12z GFS going much stronger lift than
the corresponding NAM. The better lift appears to be more favorable
over NW WI due to the proximity of the first-mentioned shortwave,
along with better moisture and thermal advection. Latest guidance is
still unclear on precipitation types as the new GFS is now going all
snow across the Northland, which is a much different solution from
yesterday`s corresponding guidance. The NAM/ECMWF/CMC are still
indicating possible wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and
rain across NW WI, so will go with these solutions for this forecast
package. These chances of precipitation should continue through the
day Tuesday, coming to an end Tuesday evening as the system departs.

Wednesday through Friday morning looks dry at this time as mid-level
ridging builds into the region. GFS model soundings are indicating a
fairly dry column throughout this period, so no mentions of any
precipitation. However, the bigger story for this period will be
increasing temperatures as low level warm air advection strengthens
along the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF are progging 925 mb temperatures
to increase to near zero, and even a few degrees above zero
Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, the consensus blends are giving
highs into the mid to upper 30s, and perhaps even some 40s in NW WI
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Clouds remained over portions of northeast Minnesota and all of
Wisconsin late this evening due to continued warm air advection.
There has been clearing though with both KHIB and KINL seeing
clear skies as of 0530Z. Clearing will continue from west to east
tonight but it will be slow. There has not been much for
precipitation except for some lake effect snow along portions of
the North Shore and that will be ending over the next couple
hours. Ceilings will continue to be mainly VFR but some brief
MVFR ceilings will also be possible with even lower ceilings
northeast of KTWM due to lake processes. VFR conditions are then
expected Saturday into Saturday evening.

LLWS will continue into the early morning hours, mainly impacting
northern Minnesota, and we continue that mention in the
KDLH/KHIB/KINL TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -4  16   1  22 /  10   0   0   0
INL  -5  13  -3  25 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  -5  18  -3  25 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  -4  19  -7  23 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  -2  20   2  27 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140>145.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...Melde


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