Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301126 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAD MOVED INTO FAR
NORTHERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE LOW-CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FURTHER COOLING...LIMITING THE
AREAS WHERE FROST IS PROBABLE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FROST ADVISORY AREA COULD STILL SEE
ISOLATED AREAS OF FROST...PRIMARILY IN LOW-LYING AND/OR AREAS
PROTECTED FROM THE WIND THROUGH 7 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. COOL AIR ADVANCING
ALONG WITH THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND
QUITE DRY...WITH MINIMUM VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES.

COOL AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDEWPREAD AREAS
OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL BE WARRANTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEEK
WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED...A LAKE BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC SUNDAY EVENING
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHLAND...IN PARTICULAR THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND. FROST IS
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND COOLER WEATHER NEAR THE LAKE...FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF
ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KINL/KHIB/KHYR THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE SCATTERING AND CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  35  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
INL  55  31  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  60  35  62  41 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  58  29  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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