000
FXUS63 KDLH 220820
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
320 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Surface high pressure over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will shift east
into northern Ontario today into Friday, so the Northland`s dry
northeast flow today will become easterly Friday. Expect generally
seasonal weather.

Today...An area of low pressure in the Central Plains had a
trough/stationary front extending to northwest Wisconsin as of
early this morning, and it could be the trigger for showers and
some thunder today. However, the radar trends have been shifting
the precipitation farther south, suggesting drier weather for the
Northland. The dry RAP seems to be following the latest radar
trends the best among the rest of the models, so leaned on the
drier RAP. Now there only remains low chances of showers and
thunder across parts of northwest Wisconsin. One feature the
models have not captured has been the showers across the Arrowhead
early this morning. These showers seem to be tied to a mid-level
deformation band...which disappears later this morning. Highs
today will be in the lower 60s.

Tonight...There will be clearing tonight. Lows will range the
lower 40s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s and lower
50s across the southern forecast area. Friday`s highs will be in
the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Focus is on next low pressure system which will lift a warm front
across the upper midwest Friday night into Saturday. This front
and associated warm air advection is expected to be the focus for
showers and a few thunderstorms. There will be a breif dry period
late in the day saturday, as models suggest a dry slot pushes into
the Northland. However, the break will be short lived as the cold
front sweeps across the region, triggering another round of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

The rain chances will remain in the forecast into next week as a
slow moving upper level low tracks across northern minnesota. The
GFS bufr soundings show steep lapse rates associated with the low
as 850 hPa temps fall into the single digits. Although timing
differs with the gfs showing the slower trend, long range model
suggest high pressure builds into the region for the later half of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

A stationary front will gradually slide southeastward from southern
MN and central WI into northern IA and southern WI by Thursday
evening. This will result in showers and storms impacting KHYR and
potentially moving into KDLH/KBRD tonight. This will bring MVFR to
IFR ceilings or lower as the lower levels moisten per the latest
RAP/HRRR. In the heavier showers/storms expect visibility
reduction, with visibility lowering most likely at KHYR. Kept in
the MVFR range based on surrounding observations, but lower is
possible.

Will gradually see conditions improve to VFR at KDLH/KBRD/KHYR as
the front slides away allowing drier air to move in from the
northwest. Expect VFR conditions to develop late in the TAF period
for KHYR and around 12Z to 15Z for KDLH/KBRD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  49  61  52 /  10  10  10  50
INL  64  42  65  50 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  67  52  64  56 /  10  10  20  40
HYR  64  52  64  54 /  40  10  10  40
ASX  62  51  63  52 /  20  10   0  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for LSZ121-
     141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...WL