Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 152027
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
327 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring very strong winds to the Northland
  tonight into Saturday.

- With this cold front a chance for rain and snow showers for
  much of the Northland tonight into Saturday, with a 40-60
  percent chance of a tenth of an inch of precipitation along
  the international border, but elsewhere very low (<10%) odds
  for more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation.

- Behind this cold front, the weather pattern shifts to a
  cooler pattern than the past few weeks, with the first below-
  normal days of the month likely on Sunday before the
  temperatures moderate to near to above normal temperatures
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A large vertically stacked low over central Ontario will lead to
a cold front moving southeast through the Northland.
Precipitation that falls ahead of the front will mainly be rain,
but will switch to rain/snow mix and then all snow overnight
tonight as temperatures decrease both on the surface and aloft.
Saturday, snow showers could linger with northwest flow and
limited moisture in the Arrowhead. As lapse rates increase
throughout the day, some snow showers could become convective in
nature through the afternoon. Saturday night, the cold air
mass behind the front advected to the southeast will lead to
lake effect snow for the remainder of the weekend. Snowfall
totals will likely (60-70%) be light to around an inch across
northeastern Minnesota. Snowfall totals in northwest Wisconsin
from lake effect is uncertain, but confidence is increasing that
the Iron county snowbelt could see up to 6 inches of snow.

The cold air mass will also bring below normal temperatures in
what seems like forever. High temperatures will continue to
decrease Saturday, and on Sunday will be in the mid 20s. As the
cold air mass exits on Monday, we will fall into a pattern of
high temperatures ranging from low 30s near the borderlands to
around 40 along the southern edge of the forecast area, which
will last through the mid week.

Consistent northwest flow next week will cause a couple chances
for precipitation as shortwaves move across the Northland and
northern Plains. Global models start to diverge after the mid
week, so confidence on when/where precipitation could occur is
low.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as a cold
front with very strong winds moves through the region this evening.
THere is a small area of stratus changing into stratocumulus clouds
with ceilings around 15-20 kft (MVFR) in north-central Minnesota
early this afternoon which will slowly dissipate as higher clouds
aloft move in from the northwest. The cold front arrives this
evening with increase west to west-northwest winds gusting as high
as 30-35 knots overnight. Light rain/snow showers may also accompany
the frontal passage at HIB and INL, with brief periods of IFR
visibilities possible in some of the more intense snow showers.
Precipitation coverage and intensity diminishes towards dawn but
strong northwest winds gusting to 20-30 knots persisting through the
day. Overcast skies with ceilings MVFR to VFR are expected at most
terminals, with a post-frontal snow shower possibly bringing a burst
of snow to a few spots Saturday afternoon - highest chances at HIB
and INL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Increasing winds from an approaching cold front will begin out
of the southwest, then shift to the northwest after the front
passes. Winds and waves will start out hazardous to small craft
this afternoon and evening before chances for gales increase
Saturday into Sunday. Widespread wind gusts around 35 kts and
waves 4-7 ft along the South Shore are possible. Small Craft
Advisories will upgrade to Gale Warnings later this evening.
Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed after the Gale
Warning ends Sunday morning as elevated winds and waves
continue.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...KML


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