Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 141748 AAB
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Update for new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

At 4 AM, it was mostly clear across the Northland. The exception
was an area of mid and high clouds streaming across portions of
northern Wisconsin. Temperatures ranged from 24 at International
Falls to 47 at Grand Marais Harbor.

The focus for today will be the development of a low pressure
system in the Central Plains. The low pressure system is expected
to develop today in response to a strong vort max and upper level
trough that is expected to emerge in the Central Plains today. The
low will gradually strengthen as the day wears on, and especially
tonight, as it moves to Lake Michigan by midnight tonight. A well
defined deformation zone will result in the development of
precipitation from southwest to northeast today, with widespread
rain by tonight. An assessment of forecast soundings and the top-
down approach indicates a small window of time where some light
snow could mix in across the northern half of the CWA. Current
thinking is that there may be about a half inch of snow in spots,
but this will still bear watching in the event the models do not
have a good handle on the dynamic cooling expected with the rapid
evolution of this deformation band.

The system will pull rapidly off to the east/northeast early
Sunday, with precipitation ending from west to east either late
tonight or early Sunday. Cooler air in the wake of the low
pressure system will bring below normal temperatures for Sunday,
with highs largely in the 40s. A weak shortwave pushing across
northern Minnesota during the day will bring a bit of cloud cover,
especially to the north, although most places will see partly to
mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The upcoming week looks dry and relatively warm. There will be a
couple weak cold fronts passages early in the week, but too dry to
support precipitation. Southerly flow will ramp up late in the
week, bringing very warm air into the region aloft. The GFS and
European have 850 hpa temperatures increase to 13 to 15 degrees
Celsius! High temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Developing low pressure over Kansas will quickly lift
northeastward through the Upper Midwest tonight through Sunday
morning. Precipitation to the northwest of the low track will
continue to develop over the next 2 to 6 hours and spread across
the terminals through this evening. Rain is expected for most of
the sites, with a potential for snow aloft. There is a chance a
rain/snow mix will reach the surface at DLH and HIB for a short
time overnight. Have included the mix in the forecast for DLH, but
still less than confident regarding timing at HIB and have
maintained all rain there. Precipitation will taper off fairly
quickly overnight departing HYR around 11Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  47  33 /  70  90   0  10
INL  49  27  48  29 /  40  40  10  10
BRD  53  34  50  33 /  80  90   0   0
HYR  55  40  51  32 /  70 100  20  10
ASX  55  37  51  33 /  60 100  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Huyck
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Huyck



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