Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210606 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA TOWARD THE MN BORDER. CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE
MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW MAY
OCCUR WITH FROPA...BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET...
WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY... AND A MID-LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
CREATING A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...HIGH RES MODULES ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE
FORMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE... THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLORADO LOW
APPROACHING THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE LOW... WITH ECMWF COMING IN MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... GFS COMING IN WITH NEARLY 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... AND THE OTHER MODELS A BIT LESS. DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF AND MORE TOWARDS THE WET SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER. EXPECTING THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH... SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY... WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MU CAPE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WET PATTERN... WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE IT IS STILL FAR OUT... THE GFS IS
INDICATING ENHANCED INSTABILITY AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR KHYR AND KBRD. BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 6 DEGREES F
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KBRD AND KHYR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME
MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AS FOG MAY DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST NAM/GFS SHOW WINDS AT
KDLH SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ONCE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. AFTER 01Z EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  65  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
INL  33  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  40  70  47  69 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  35  69  43  71 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  35  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL






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