Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
324 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Stacked low over the southeast corner of North Dakota will gradually
weaken and slide eastward across central Minnesota today, lifting
into northern Wisconsin on Wednesday. As this occurs, cooler air
will wrap around the low with surface winds shifting from mainly out
of the south today to out of the north on Wednesday. A frontal zone
will consolidate north of the Iron Range today leading to an
increased chance for rain towards the international border, while to
the south a broad dry slot evident on water vapor channel satellite
imagery will persist through the day, leaving areas south of the Iron
Range generally dry through today. As the low traverses east across
central Minnesota tonight into Wednesday, there will be a broad area
with a chance for rain/snow showers...mainly snow overnight
transitioning to a rain/snow mix during the day Wednesday due to
temperatures in the 30s.  Around an inch of snow possible for parts
of northern Minnesota where the band of broad lift will pivot around
today into tonight, but otherwise less than an inch of snow expected
through Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The area of sfc low pressure that has been responsible for the rain
showers we experienced Monday will eventually move out of the area
early Thursday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in a northwesterly
flow regime, along with a tightening sfc pressure gradient. A lobe
of 500 mb positive vorticity advection is progged to sweep through
during the day Thursday, which could generate a small chance of
snow, but the GFS/NAM model soundings look pessimistic with column
moisture, so chances of snow may stay exclusive to the morning when
there is at least some saturation in the dendritic growth zone. I
did add slight chances of a flurry Thursday and Friday to most of
the forecast area due to strong 850 mb cold air advection shown on
the synoptic models as the low departs.

Chances of lake enhanced snow is possible Thursday afternoon through
Friday night for northwest and north-central Wisconsin as the
northwest flow regime continues. GFS/NAM guidance indicates
sufficient moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer, along with enhanced
1000-850 mb isentropic lift, with values up to -5 ubar/s in this
area. Delta-T values between the Lake Superior and 850 mb temps are
within the desired range for lake enhancement, with delta-Ts of 11
to 13 degrees C.

Beyond Saturday, looks like off-and-on chances of snow are possible
Sunday through Tuesday morning as a series of mid-level shortwaves
moves through the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A large low pressure system will remain largely in place across
the Northland throughout the TAF period. An area of instability
rotated from southwest to northeast across the region during the
evening, and we will continue to see bands of precipitation wrap
around the main upper level low throughout the period. The impact
will be somewhat variable cloud heights and visibilities, with a
mix of VFR conditions as well as MVFR to IFR CIG`s and VSBY`s. We
could see a bit of an improvement on Tuesday, but probably only
improve to MVFR at most sites. Rain showers will also be found
across the region once again.


DLH  38  33  37  29 /  40  30  40  40
INL  39  32  35  27 /  80  40  40  30
BRD  38  32  37  29 /  40  30  50  30
HYR  39  32  39  30 /  30  20  40  40
ASX  42  33  39  31 /  30  20  40  50


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140-141.



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