Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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892
FXUS63 KDLH 262355
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
655 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A mid-level shortwave, with an associated sfc low, will advance
across northern Illinois into Michigan tonight. A ribbon of positive
vorticity advection that has supported rain/freezing rain across
portions of the Northland this morning will weaken while the
shortwave translates to the northeast. A secondary shortwave trough
that has developed out of the Four-Corners region this morning will
help push the previous shortwave to the east, while ejecting a
northern stream ribbon of PVA into the Northland later this evening
and overnight. Modest to weak isentropic lift looks to be associated
with this northern stream, so not sold on it supporting any
precipitation. Additional inhibition is provided by a push of drier
850-600 mb layer air, as evident in the latest NAM and RAP model
soundings, which removes the deeper moisture that has been in place
this morning. So, have decided not to include POPs with this
shortwave at this time. Areas of fog are also expected to develop
tonight as a low-level inversion traps boundary layer moisture,
along with light winds in place. Model guidance is hinting at
some of the thickest fog possible over the Iron Range area north
towards the International Border, and along the Gogebic Range
areas of Iron and Ashland counties. Visibilities could reduce to
as low as 2 SM in some spots, but most of the Northland should see
reductions between 3 to 5 SM.

Chances of precipitation should ramp down somewhat later this
evening, but maintaining over northwest Wisconsin overnight as
weak PVA lingers over this area. The northern PVA ribbon looks to
reinforce this lingering PVA. Moreover, deeper moisture should linger
over this area through Monday morning. So, kept chances of rain
showers for the eastern portions of our NW WI forecast area. Some
freezing rain may also develop as temperatures cool down overnight
and Monday morning. However, QPF should not be quite as high as
it was this morning, so not expecting much ice accumulation, if
any at all. Any lingering precipitation should diminish by Monday
afternoon as high pressure builds into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Split flow pattern will continue for most of the upcoming week, with
the primary storm storm track remaining to our south from the
central Plains States into the middle Great Lakes, and another
series of fast-moving waves traversing Canada to our north in faster
more zonal flow aloft.

Overall, this will mean generally tranquil weather with a slow
warming trend, although there will be a few small chances for
precipitation with several weak disturbances traversing the region.
Temperatures, especially at night and during the early mornings, may
be sufficiently cold to support some wintry mixed precip, but
overall this should not amount to many significant impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Low pressure over southern Lake Michigan this evening will
continue northeast tonight and an upper level disturbance will
also move through the region. Light rain from the North Shore into
the Pine City area this evening will continue east through the
evening. The cloud forecast will be quite variable across the
Northland tonight with mostly VFR conditions over far northern
Minnesota this evening and MVFR/IFR ceilings around Lake Superior
and over northwest Wisconsin. VFR conditions will develop further
south through the evening but as the night progresses more MVFR
and IFR ceilings will develop. Fog will also be possible, most
widespread and dense around Lake Superior. As weak high pressure
moves over the region Monday, conditions will gradually improve
for most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  28  47 /  30  10   0   0
INL  30  46  27  48 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  33  54  30  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  32  45  26  52 /  30  20   0   0
ASX  31  42  26  45 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Melde



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