Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Summary: There are low chances of showers and storms early today,
but the Northland can expect a clearing trend from this west this
afternoon. Thursday will be cool and cloudy.

As of early this morning: A shortwave trough was lifting through
Wisconsin, upper Michigan, and Lake Superior region. There were
associated storms across northeast Iowa to central Wisconsin, and
showers as far north as northwest Wisconsin. There was an area of
low pressure over the border between northwest Ontario and
Manitoba, and its cold front stretch south through western
Minnesota. There were isolated light showers along the cold front.
Much of the Northland had partly to mostly cloudy skies. The
temperatures were primarily in the lower and middle 60s.

Early this morning: Parts of northwest Wisconsin will likely get
showers, and maybe some weak thunderstorms, as the shortwave
trough continues lifting through the region. There is a low chance
of showers and weak storms along the cold front as moves into the
western forecast area.

Late this morning and this afternoon: There will be a clearing
trend from the west in the wake of the cold front moving east
through the Northland. Most of the models have no shower/storm
development along the front, with the exception of the HRRR and
RAP over northern Minnesota, which warranted low chances of pcpn
for the Iron Range, Ely, and inland Arrowhead areas. The sunny
skies, breezy westerly flow, and dry humidity this afternoon will
promote good heating, so leaned on the warmer model guidance, such
as the local wrf and 4 km NAM. High temperatures will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Park Point, downtown Duluth, and the city of
Superior will experience downslope warming from the westerly flow,
so bumped up the forecast for those areas to around 85 degrees.

Tonight: An upper level low will be over southern Manitoba by
tonight, and it will shift into Ontario by dawn Thursday. Cooler
air will begin to pour into the Northland. Mostly clear skies and
light winds speeds overnight should let temperatures drop to the
lower and middle 50s.

Thursday: The upper low will move east across northwest Ontario,
and the Northland can expect cool and breezy weather. The west-
northwest flow, with gusts to around 20 mph, will advect 850 hpa
temperatures around 6 degrees Celsius. The cool and humid air
aloft, combined with the synoptic lift from the upper low/trough,
will contribute to the development of widespread broken/overcast
cumulus by the early afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated
weak storms are forecast for far northern Minnesota. Leaned on the
cooler GFS model guidance since the extensive cloud cover will
discourage heating, so highs are forecast to range from the lower
60s across the Borderland to the low 70s across northwest

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Thursday night through Friday to be relatively quiet across the
region with cyclonic flow still producing some showers over the
arrowhead Thursday night. These will end by Friday morning as a
ridge of high pressure builds across the area.

A large, longwave trough to move across the Rockies and towards
the Midwest for this upcoming weekend, bringing chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the area beginning Friday night and
continuing through early Sunday depending on the model and the
speed at which it brings that upper level trough through the area.
The GFS is a little faster than the ECWMF this morning and for now
favor this solution. Have kept at least some chance pops going
through much of this period.

Early next week still has a significant amount of disagreement
between the models, with intermittent shower and thunderstorm
chances through Wednesday. For now Sunday night and Monday appear
dry for most of the area, and there may be a few more dry periods
as well. Temperatures remain seasonable to warmer than normal with
southwest flow aloft and a ridge of warmer temperatures at 850mb
nosing into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A cold front is advancing slowly east across the terminals. Ahead
of the front IFR/MVFR stratus affected most of the terminals, and
where there were holes in the stratus fog had formed with IFR
visibilities. Rain showers were affecting KHYR with LIFR ceilings
and IFR visibilities. The cold front is expected to slowly move
east bringing a return to VFR conditions from west to east between
14z and 20z. Once conditions return to VFR west winds will
increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. The winds will diminish
once again around 00z this evening. An area of MVFR stratus is
expected to spread to KINL after 10z tonight, moving to the
remaining terminals after the end of the TAF period.


DLH  81  56  69  50 /  10   0   0   0
INL  79  53  62  44 /  20   0  40  10
BRD  80  55  68  46 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  79  54  72  47 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  81  57  73  52 /  30   0   0  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
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