Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 152329
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
629 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring very strong winds to the Northland
  tonight into Saturday.

- With this cold front a chance for rain and snow showers for
  much of the Northland tonight into Saturday, with a 40-60
  percent chance of a tenth of an inch of precipitation along
  the international border, but elsewhere very low (<10%) odds
  for more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation.

- Behind this cold front, the weather pattern shifts to a
  cooler pattern than the past few weeks, with the first below-
  normal days of the month likely on Sunday before the
  temperatures moderate to near to above normal temperatures
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A large vertically stacked low over central Ontario will lead to
a cold front moving southeast through the Northland.
Precipitation that falls ahead of the front will mainly be rain,
but will switch to rain/snow mix and then all snow overnight
tonight as temperatures decrease both on the surface and aloft.
Saturday, snow showers could linger with northwest flow and
limited moisture in the Arrowhead. As lapse rates increase
throughout the day, some snow showers could become convective in
nature through the afternoon. Saturday night, the cold air
mass behind the front advected to the southeast will lead to
lake effect snow for the remainder of the weekend. Snowfall
totals will likely (60-70%) be light to around an inch across
northeastern Minnesota. Snowfall totals in northwest Wisconsin
from lake effect is uncertain, but confidence is increasing that
the Iron county snowbelt could see up to 6 inches of snow.

The cold air mass will also bring below normal temperatures in
what seems like forever. High temperatures will continue to
decrease Saturday, and on Sunday will be in the mid 20s. As the
cold air mass exits on Monday, we will fall into a pattern of
high temperatures ranging from low 30s near the borderlands to
around 40 along the southern edge of the forecast area, which
will last through the mid week.

Consistent northwest flow next week will cause a couple chances
for precipitation as shortwaves move across the Northland and
northern Plains. Global models start to diverge after the mid
week, so confidence on when/where precipitation could occur is
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A clipper moving across Ontario has spread high clouds across the
Northland this evening. Radar also shows some light rain entering NW
MN. A cold front will dip across the region with robust winds on the
backside of the boundary. I have opted to calm winds down a bit
prior to the frontal passage as diurnal cooling could cap winds off
briefly. Additionally, the winds in the lower levels will be quite
strong so if we do manage to have winds subside at the surface low
level wind shear will be more prevalent.

Scattered snow showers will also be possible behind the front. These
showers may quickly drop visibilities at times as they do look to
have some convective elements. Ceilings look to lower as we head
into the morning hours with widespread MVFR expected. Gusty winds
will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Increasing winds from an approaching cold front will begin out
of the southwest, then shift to the northwest after the front
passes. Winds and waves will start out hazardous to small craft
this afternoon and evening before chances for gales increase
Saturday into Sunday. Widespread wind gusts around 35 kts and
waves 4-7 ft along the South Shore are possible. Small Craft
Advisories will upgrade to Gale Warnings later this evening.
Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed after the Gale
Warning ends Sunday morning as elevated winds and waves
continue.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...KML


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