Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260531 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1131 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AT 345 PM...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SNOW HAD SPREAD ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN NW WI.

THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH SOME FGEN BANDING...SHOULD CAUSE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION...MAINLY FROM PINE COUNTY EASTWARD INTO NW WI.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 12Z AND 18Z MODELS...ON A FAIRLY NARROW
STRIP OF SNOW ACROSS THAT GENERAL AREA. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW CREEP NORTHWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA BUT NOT REALLY
LOOKING LIKE ANY ACCUMULATION THAT FAR NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LIFTS OVER WISCONSIN DURING THE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIODS. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS A PORTION OF NW
WISCONSIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
WORK WEEK AS A CLOSED H50 LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS ONTO AND INTO THE
HUDSON BAY REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR. H85
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS SUNDAY...REACHING THE
NEGATIVE 20S MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR AND NW TRAJECTORIES
WILL FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SNOW BELT REGION FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND SNOWFALL ACCUMS REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MAINLY FALL AS FLURRIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HYR WHERE 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTH. COULD SEE -FZDZ OR FLURRIES AROUND
DLH FRIDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
AROUND HYR CLOSER TO 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  28  17  22 /  10  10  10  10
INL  19  22   3  15 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  24  27  15  20 /  20  20  10  10
HYR  27  31  21  24 /  50  40  50  40
ASX  27  32  23  26 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...BJT





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