Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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