Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231742
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1142 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

INCREASED POPS INTO NE MN AS THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. STILL EXPECTING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
TO OCCUR OVER NW WI...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A 1-3 INCH AREA OF SNOW
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND SWD THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
FORECAST WAS JUST HOW FAR WEST THE ADVISORY-LEVEL /3-5 INCH/
SNOWFALL WOULD FALL AND HOW QUICKLY IT WOULD COME TO AN END
TODAY/TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT
SNOW...FOG...AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MOVED ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WEST TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THIS BROUGHT ABOUT AN
INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL BASED ON EARLY MORNING REPORTS. TOWARDS SUNRISE
WE ARE EXPECTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL AS EVIDENCED BY DRIER
AIR ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THE LOW OVER IOWA LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING THE MOISTURE AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH WILL MAKE UP THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL...SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM CST. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
DRAMATIC CHANGES. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THE BEST LIFT COULD
END UP JUST A TAD FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND THUS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN BAYFIELD/SAWYER COUNTIES IS
A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL THINK AT LEAST THREE INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THE END OF THE DAY.

BY THE AFTERNOON SNOWFALL RATES WILL DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BUT STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW. NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...AND WHILE THE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE AIR AND LAKE IS NOT VERY LARGE...THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO MAKE UP FOR IT WHEN IT COMES TO
SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. HIGHER TERRAIN IN
BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
30S.

TONIGHT SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
EVENING. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FRONT HE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY FROM BIGFORK UP TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND POINTS WEST. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SNOWFALL
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. HIGHS NEAR FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUR STRONG STORM SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES
AROUND THE AREA FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FOR FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT
OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS A PIECE OF ENERGY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MOVES A SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY EVENING NORTHEAST
TO IOWA BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND ON TO WISCONSIN BY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AND
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES ARE NOT VERY LARGE
SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...MODEL QPF
VARIES GREATLY...AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A LARGE VARIANCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THINGS FAIRLY LOW IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR QUITE A BIT MORE...POSSIBLY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND LOOKS COLDER AS THE FRIDAY SYSTEM ALLOWS A SURGE OF
COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 20
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ROCKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST SHIFTS FARTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION AND PUTTING SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
IFR/LIFR TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
GRADUALLY BE AN IMPROVING TREND THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  30  31  23 /  80  50  10  10
INL  34  28  31  22 /  20  20  20  20
BRD  34  30  31  22 /  40  40  10  10
HYR  34  32  32  24 /  90  60  20  10
ASX  34  32  33  27 / 100  80  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004-
     008-009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP






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