Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 160956
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
356 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

At 345 AM, skies were clear across the Northland. Temperatures
ranged from the single digits above zero along the south shore of
Lake Superior, to the single digits to teens below zero for much
of the rest of the region. Winds were generally from the W/SW.

The focus for the short term period is the potential for some
light snow showers tonight and Friday.

High pressure will move from Nebraska to Illinois by this evening.
Sunny skies are in store for the Northland today, with high
temperatures reaching the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds will
become gusty out of the southwest.

Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will slide eastward out of the
Northern Plains/south central Canada tonight and Saturday. While
there may be some spotty snow showers developing tonight and on
Saturday, limited moisture should result in little to no snow
accumulation. Have trimmed POP`s just a little, and kept them in
the 20/30 percent range. Temperatures will warm a bit on Saturday,
reaching the lower 20s in the north and lower 30s in the
south/southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The extended period will be active, especially through Tuesday with
accumulating snow likely Sunday and it remains possible over the
southeast third/half of the Northland Monday and Tuesday.

A fast westerly flow aloft will exist across the Northland Saturday
night. An area of surface low pressure will be centered in South
Dakota at 12Z Sunday with a baroclinic zone over the region. The low
will move east Sunday but weaken during the day. A shortwave will
move across the Northland Sunday with an area of strong FGEN forcing
quickly translating across the area. The guidance is in good
agreement spreading snow across much of the Northland late Saturday
night through Sunday but do differ on the axis of highest
precipitation. The strongest forcing will be moving through quickly
but despite the fast movement, a fairly widespread area of snow with
accumulation from 2 to 5 inches will be possible. Some locally
higher amounts are not out of the question, and there will be some
lake enhancement along the North Shore as well.

The snow will diminish briefly from west to east late Sunday
afternoon/night. However, an upper trough will continue to dig into
the western CONUS Sunday into Sunday night which will cause the flow
downstream to back to southwest. As the upper trough moves east
through Tuesday another area of low pressure will be centered in the
Central Plains Monday morning and track northeast into the western
Great Lakes. Light snow may not end Sunday night over the southeast
half to third of the Northland, then snow is forecast to expand in
coverage Monday and diminish Tuesday. It still appears the best
chance for accumulation will occur over northwest Wisconsin into far
eastern Minnesota but quite a bit of uncertainty remains and
confidence is still not very high in how much snowfall will occur.
Those with travel plans Monday through Tuesday should monitor the
forecast closely as there is potential for significant snowfall.

High pressure will build in behind the departing low Tuesday night
and Wednesday bringing a period of dry weather for most areas
Tuesday night through Thursday. Highs Sunday through Wednesday will
be in the teens and twenties, warmest over northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

VFR conditions as a cold front moves through with some isolated
MVFR stratus though the main concern will continue to be wind
shift timing. Another VFR day for Friday under arctic air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  11  26   6 /   0  40  10  10
INL  19  10  21  -1 /  10  30  10  10
BRD  21  13  26   8 /   0  30  10  40
HYR  19  10  31   8 /   0  20  30  10
ASX  21  12  31  10 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...Wolfe



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