Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 131623 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

INCREASED WINDS AND WINDS GUSTS FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE NAM12
AND RAP13 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...POSSIBLY STRAY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
SW FORECAST AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND WERE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING QUITE DOUBTFUL FOR MOST OF THE ARROWHEAD
THIS MORNING AND WE WILL LIKELY CANCEL THE WARNING FOR THAT AREA AS
THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL HELP SEND THOSE CLOUDS EAST
THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH...AND SOME
CU TO FORM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER FIFTIES.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING...AND
PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT. WE DELAYED THE STARTING TIME BY A FEW HOURS
WHICH MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. THE UPPER TROUGH  WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS REMAINING. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER MOST AREAS SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTH.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THEY WILL
DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES TO LOWER SIXTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A BUILDING HIGH AT THE SFC FROM THE WEST
WILL DEFINE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH
N-CNTRL WI SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SFC FRONT COULD DROP IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTH ON WED...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN VERY LOW. THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM RETURN SLY FLOW DEVELOPING
AND USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES MON AND TUE WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...BUT QUICKLY COOL
AROUND THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON WED AS EAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
DEVELOP. HIGHS AROUND DULUTH ON WED WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER
50S. A SECONDARY SURGE OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED THUR AND FRI AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE S AND SW...AND HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION MOST OF TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE EWD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR...BUT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 09-12Z. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 04-10Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  43  61  43 /   0  30  50  10
INL  58  41  56  39 /   0  60  60  20
BRD  58  44  60  39 /   0  20  10  10
HYR  57  42  62  39 /   0  20  30  10
ASX  60  43  62  44 /   0  20  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT





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