Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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588
FXUS63 KDLH 011758
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1158 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

At 345 AM, Light snow continued across mainly northwest Wisconsin.
KDLH radar indicated a general decrease in returns during the
early morning hours, after showing several intense bands of snow
during the evening hours. Snow accumulation of up to 6 inches was
reported in portions of far northern Wisconsin into the evening.
Temperatures ranged from the single digits in the far northeast
portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead, to the mid to upper 20`s
across the south.

The focus for today through Thursday will be the potential for any
additional snow accumulation in northwest Wisconsin today, along
with trying to resolve the chance of precipitation moving in from
the west this afternoon and evening.

For today, we should continue to see light snow across northwest
Wisconsin. A few inches of additional snow accumulation will be
possible in the southeastern portion of the CWA, while there will
be some flurries lingering into portions of northeast Minnesota.
By this afternoon, a weak wave moving into the western CWA will
bring a new chance of snow showers into the western third of the
forecast area. While the area of precipitation associated with
this feature is fairly vigorous at this time, most of the model
guidance indicates that there will be a decrease in activity as it
moves into our CWA. As a result, have basically gone with chance
POP`s for this afternoon in that area. The rest of the Northland
should see partial sunshine and highs ranging from 20 in the
northeast to the lower 30s south.

The chance of snow showers will linger in the western and central
portions of the CWA tonight, while the focus shifts to snow
showers along the south shore. Not expecting much in the way of
snow accumulation from either of these events. Lows are expected
to range from the single digits in the north to the 20s south.

Thursday is expected to feature partly to mostly cloudy skies,
along with some scattered snow showers along the south shore.
Highs will range from the teens in the north to the 20s south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The extended forecast period features a return to well above normal
temperatures, along with light to moderate chances of precipitation.

Friday morning looks to be the coldest period for the following week
as a chilly air mass moves overhead. The 01.00z synoptic guidance is
progging 925 mb temperatures dropping into the upper teens and lower
20 degrees C below zero, which should support lows in the single
digits below zero, and depending on the amount of clearing that
develops, these values could be even colder. There could be some
light lake effect snow showers that develop due to the colder
temperatures along the Lake Superior snow belt region. Otherwise,
the rest of the Northland should remain dry as a sfc high pressure
ridge advances through the region.

A weak mid-level shortwave is then expected to bring only small
chances of a rain/snow mix Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Moreover, temperatures look to return to the 40s and even the lower
50s as southerly flow develops over the region. The biggest focus of
the extended forecast period will be on Monday through Tuesday
morning as a mid- to upper-level system advances over the region. A
130+ kt upper-level jet, upper-level divergence, and an associated
mid-level shortwave trough looks to provide deep lift across the
Northland, along with an enhanced 850 mb low-level jet of up to 50
kts expected to develop and enhance moisture transport. The 01.00z
GFS is progging good theta-e advection, along with Pwat values
approaching one inch along our southern counties. The thermal
profile is indicating the precipitation type to transition from a
rain/snow mix during the morning hours Monday to all rain by the
afternoon. The best chances of precipitation appear to be during the
afternoon and evening hours Monday as the best forcing advances
during that time. Due to the strong lift and enhanced moisture
transport, Monday looks to be a decent soaker across the Northland.
While some pulses of shortwave energy appear to linger through the
rest of the forecast period, the atmospheric profile appears to
become drier, putting a stop to the robust chances of precipitation
we see for Monday. Temperatures look to return to closer to normal
values Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens and lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Colder air will filter into the Northland through tomorrow amidst
light northerly flow. Much of the period should be VFR, but there
will be lingering MVFR ceilings at KHYR through early this
afternoon, and a period of MVFR and very light snow likely at KBRD
late this afternoon through early this evening. Terminals across
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will also have a very
low probability of MVFR ceilings tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  10  24  -1 /  10  10  10   0
INL  22   4  15  -8 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  32  13  26   4 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  28  14  28   3 /  60  10  10  10
ASX  25  14  28   5 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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