Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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204
FXUS63 KDLH 211156
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
556 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Windy conditions continued across the Northland as of 330 AM, with
several locations reporting gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. We
have even had some gusts into the 40+ mph range this morning.
Strong cold air advection, and moisture dropping southward behind
a cold front was causing snow showers to develop across the
region as well. Temperatures ranged from the teens in the far
north, to the lower to mid 30s in portions of northwest WI.

The focus for today will be cloud trends, and the chance of snow
showers. Arctic air will continue to settle into the region today,
with gusty northwest winds and scattered snow showers and
flurries. The best chance of snow showers will be this morning,
before the low pressure system pulls rapidly off to the east. The
south shore of Lake Superior could see some snow accumulation, but
generally only an inch or two in the Gogebic Range. Will also
keep some flurries into tonight across the region.

High pressure will dominate the weather across the western Great
Lakes late tonight and early Wednesday, but the next system will
move in rapidly as the day wears on Wednesday. This clipper-like
system will slide southeastward to near Fargo by late Wednesday,
with light snow spreading into the western half to two thirds of
the CWA during the afternoon. Snowfall of up to an inch is
possible in the western CWA Wednesday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the upper teens in the far north, to
the 20s south. Lows tonight will range from the single digits to
the teens, with highs on Wednesday again in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A mainly sunny Thanksgiving will be followed by a mild and wet end
Friday before colder air moves across the Upper Midwest for the
weekend causing temperatures to fall into the single digits Saturday
night. Temperatures slowly rebound early next week.

On the synoptic scale a broad warm front zone will be building east
across the Upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A weak clipper
will traverse this warm frontal zone late Wednesday leading to a
chance for light snow, possibly ending as freezing drizzle. A brief
period of clearing behind the clipper should lead to at least partly
sunny skies on Thanksgiving Thursday as the warm frontal zone stalls
out across southern Canada. This warm front will be associated with
a low deepening across southern Canada late week tracking east
towards north of Lake Superior Friday night. Ahead of the low
temperatures will be mild - while highs will only be in the mid 20s
to mid 30s Thursday, they will rise to the 40s on Friday with above-
freezing highs likely for all of northeast Minnesota, even in the
the MN Arrowhead. Gusty west winds will accompany the cold frontal
passage Friday, though the colder air won`t arrive until Friday
night. Temperatures fall Friday night, barely rise Saturday, then
continue to fall Saturday night as colder air moves in aloft. A few
wrap-around snow showers may bring up to an inch of snow in northern
Minnesota, but otherwise the main concern for the weekend will be
lake effect snow along the south shore. North-northeast winds will
continue through Saturday night, and while current guidance is not
especially bullish on lake effect snow, there will be a long
period of time for lake effect processes to get going and sustain
which should lead to accumulating snowfall across the south shore.

After lows hit the single digits Saturday night, temperatures will
rise Sunday into Monday as a warm front again builds east into the
region, continuing the pattern of the past few weeks. Highs will be
closer to normal early next week in the low to mid 30s Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Strong northwest winds continue today with gusts of 25 to 35
knots, strongest this morning then gradually weakening late in the
day. MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR at most sites today as
skies partially clear out towards late morning, with the best
chance for improvement VFR conditions at BRD, DLH, and HYR. MVFR
ceilings may return this afternoon at DLH and HYR for a time, but
generally the trend will be improving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  10  25  18 /  50  10  20  40
INL  20   7  22  13 /  50  10  30  10
BRD  24  11  27  20 /  30   0  40  10
HYR  25  11  27  20 /  30  10  10  30
ASX  26  16  28  21 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Gale Warning until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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