Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252055
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
355 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE..AS INDICATED BY DECREASING RADAR ECHOES ON
KDLH OVER THE PAST HOUR. LIGHT SNOW AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING..BUT
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

BY LATE EVENING..WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AS A SECONDARY SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW LK EFFECT SNOW TO CRANK UP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 925/850 TEMPS GET QUITE
COLD BY 12Z THURSDAY..AND SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN MANY OF THE FAVORED LK EFFECT AREAS. WE CONFINED
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO IRON COUNTY..WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SNOW WINDS DOWN BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MANY AREAS..BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE RISES WANE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY..BUT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL..ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW
WISCONSIN UNDERNEATH COLDEST CORE OF TEMPS ALOFT AND LONGEST
PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THE REST OF THIS WEEK LOOKS DRY...BUT RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE NORTHLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RESULT IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PARTS
OF NW WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

WARM SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE AND AS A LOW IN SW CANADA BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SSW WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY.

THE LOW WILL MOVE ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACH LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PASSING OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
WNW TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.

THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS
POINT TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO...JUST
NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER...AND WAS GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
EAST. THE REGION HAD OVC CIGS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE AND -SN OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...INCLUDING AT KDLH/KHIB/KINL. GUSTY WEST TO NW
WINDS WERE DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
LOW.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS
FROM -SN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST AND THEN NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP. MUCH OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 KNOTS. THE KHYR LIKELY WILL NOT GET AS HIGH OF WIND GUST SPEEDS
DUE TO THE SHELTERING OF THE SURROUNDING FOREST.

THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE FROM THE NW OVER MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR
POURS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVC/BKN MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME NNW LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  28  10  31 /  40  10   0   0
INL  11  25   7  35 /  60  10   0   0
BRD  20  33  12  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  31  10  34 /  20  10  10   0
ASX  22  28  12  30 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ145-146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-147-148.

&&

$$







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