Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 310602 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF NOTCH OF CLEARING MAY PASS BY BRD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS IS LOW
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCT LAYER IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS AND AMENDMENTS MAY PUSH CIGS
LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT ALL
SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS INCREASES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...SO FEATURING LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  15  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...HUYCK






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