000
FXUS63 KMQT 040133
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
833 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...REACHING NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST.
WEST AND CENTRAL WILL SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION...THEN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SFC WILL
BRING A WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOW TO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE STRONGEST
ASCENT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL.

THE TRICKY PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS PRECIPITATION TYPE.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME AGREEING ON
THE THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM MOVES AN 850MB WARM
WEDGE ALL THE WAY TO IRONWOOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 3-5C
BY 21Z WED. THIS WOULD BRING A POT POURRI OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST...WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX. THE ECMWF/GEM...THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODELS AS OF RECENTLY...BRING THE WARM AIR IN BUT IT IS
LESS EXTENSIVE AT THIS TIME...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE WEST AROUND
0-1C. FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...DECIDED TO BLEND THE
12Z GEM/12Z NAM TO GET SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. EXTENDED SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL. OTHERWISE...BOTH THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM
HAVE PRIMARILY RAIN EAST...AND A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL.

AS FOR HEADLINES...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD
REACH UP TO 6 INCHES FOR GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...SOUTHERN
HOUGHTON...AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SEE MORE
OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN 2 AND
4 INCHES...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
OF UP TO 0.15 INCHES. AGAIN...HIGHER TERRAIN IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE
COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. OPTED TO LEAVE
COUNTIES EAST OF MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON OUT FOR NOW...AS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY COLD AS A RIDGE THRU THE NE
PACIFIC TO ALASKA FORCES A DEEP TROF INITIALLY INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE TROF IS TO SHIFT E WHILE THE NE
PACIFIC/ALASKA RIDGE EITHER WEAKENS OR RETROGRADES. PERHAPS THIS MAY
BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE TOWARD A WARMER PATTERN LATER THIS
MONTH. PRIOR TO THAT...COLD WILL DOMINATE. IN FACT...AS THE TROF
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND NOW GFS
ARE HINTING AT A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR...EVEN BY MID WINTER
STANDARDS...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. 00Z ECMWF HAD -30C 850MB
TEMPS REACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. IF SO...THERE WILL BE A DAY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHERE HIGH TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE 0F OVER THE
INTERIOR W. WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DOMINATING...LES WILL BE A DAILY
CONCERN...AND FOR MOST DAYS THE ONLY PCPN IN THE FCST. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE 2 PERIODS WITH SYNOPTIC PCPN TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
WILL BE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM (WED NIGHT) AS LOW PRES SYSTEM
IN THE SHORT TERM EXITS TO THE NE. THE SECOND WILL BE LATE SUN/EARLY
MON AS A WAVE LIFTS NE THRU THE UPPER LAKES AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI. SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A CHANGOVER TO
MAINLY LIQUID PCPN ACROSS THE E HALF WITH A WINTRY MIX A LITTLE
FARTHER W. OVER THE FAR W FCST AREA...SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE THE
PREVAILING PTYPE. HOWEVER...WITH THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY NAM MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING FARTHER W...INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF
SLEET/FZRA OVER THE FAR W. PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM S TO N
MID/LATE EVENING. AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE...COLDER AIR WILL SURGE
BACK INTO AREA...AND ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL END OR CHANGE TO
-SHSH/FLURRIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT LEAST -10C
OVER THE WRN LAKE BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC
SNOW DEPART. WITH MAIN DEFORMATION SNOW SHIELD ON BACKSIDE OF LOW
PASSING BY TO THE W/NW...IT DOESN`T APPEAR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW LATE
WED NIGHT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH. WIND WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY THU MORNING AS CAA INCREASES
INSTABILITY WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. UNDER WRLY
FLOW...THE KEWEENAW WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRONGEST WINDS. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SUGGESTS GUSTS EASILY INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE BY THU
MORNING...AND WITH 850MB WINDS UP NEAR 45KT...PEAK GUSTS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES THU MORNING. AT LEAST BY THE TIME THE WIND
FIELD IS THAT STRONG...THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL HAVE ENDED. IN
THE END...THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WINTER WX HEADLINE FOR
COMBINATION OF ADVY WIND AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WRLY FLOW LES WILL TAKE OVER THU AS 850MB TEMPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
FALL TO -14C E TO -19C W BY 00Z FRI. LES WILL CONTINUE IN A NEAR
STEADY STATE THRU FRI AND ON INTO SAT AS 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT
AROUND -20C DURING THAT TIME. W WINDS SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME. SO LES WILL
ESSENTIALLY OCCUR CONTINUOUSLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA INTO
PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON COUNTY LATE WEEK. LES FOR LOCATIONS S TOWARD
KIWD AND ALSO E OF MUNISING ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES OCNL VEERING OF WINDS TO WNW DIRECTION...SO
LES WILL AFFECT THOSE AREAS AS WELL...IT JUST WON`T BE CONTINUOUS
THRU THE PERIOD. ADVY TYPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH BLSN WILL
PROBABLY BE THE RULE OVER THE KEWEENAW EACH DAY.

LES WILL WIND DOWN AND PROBABLY END FOR A TIME SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
WINDS BACK TO THE SW WITH PASSING HIGH PRES RIDGE. WINDS MAY THEN
BECOME E OR SE SUN AFTN/EVENING...DEPENDING ON STRENGTH/TRACK OF SFC
WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...THERE MAY BE SOME ISSUES WITH LES AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL -SN WILL BE IN OFFING AS THE
WAVE LIFTS NE THRU THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM
TO WATCH AS THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE PICTURE THAT WILL BE
DIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF TIMING/TRACKS
OF THE 2 WAVES CHANGES IN THE RIGHT WAY...THERE WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PHASING AND A STRONG WINTER STORM TO TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES AND LEAD THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA. WHATEVER
DOES HAPPEN WITH THE WAVE...WESTERLY FLOW LES WILL THEN RESUME FOR
MON/TUE AS BITTER COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA. AS COLD AS IT
MIGHT BE...LES WON`T PRODUCE MUCH ACCUMULATION AS COLD AIR
SUPPRESSES DGZ TO NEAR THE SFC...RESULTING IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT
ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. WITH THE POTENTIAL BITTER COLD
EARLY NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH THE COLD LATE THIS WEEK...THERE MAY BE
SOME ISSUES WITH WATER LINES FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW COVER IS
SPARSE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

CHALLENGING FCST FOR THIS TAF PD AS MIXED PCPN COULD COME INTO PLAY
WED AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES FROM THE PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

KCMX AND KIWD...GENERALLY NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED WITH WX UNTIL WED
MORNING WHEN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVANCES TOWARD
AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MVFR UNDER GENERALLY DRY
EASTERLY FLOW. AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO LIFR IN MODERATE SNOW. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SNOW COULD MIX WITH FZRA BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

KSAW...INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER
SRN WI AND LOWER MI WILL LOWER CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING. MAIN EVENT WILL BE LATE WED MORNING WHEN NEXT BATCH OF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH WITH ADVANCING PLAINS LOW AND ASSOC WARM
FRONT. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW IN THE MORNING
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2013

...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY TO WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE CROSSED LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOVED JUST
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FAR WEST. THE REMAINDER OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SEE PRIMARILY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST WILL BECOME GALES TO 35 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO GALES UP TO 40
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THESE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...AND DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 1
     AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 1
     AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ247-248-250-
     251.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     THURSDAY FOR LSZ241>245.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...MCD