Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 251951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

IT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES. OUR CURRENT N TO NW WIND REGIME BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT WILL BE CHANGING AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE
SFC HIGH OVER S MN/IA/W WI CONTINUES TO BUILD E. WITH ZONAL TO
SLIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE ARE STILL A FEW SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
TO DEAL WITH. THESE ARE ASSISTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONGOING
SHOWERS NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER N MN. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS UPPER MI...THESE PESKY FEATURES...AT LEAST
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND STEEP 900-700MB LAPSE
RATES...WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER N LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 0.75IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 1-1.5IN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE AGAIN TOMORROW /850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C/...AND
WITH S-SW WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EVEN THE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
GET A REPORT OF 90F AROUND PELKIE-BARAGA...OR N MENOMINEE CO. STILL
EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO SLIDE IN OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID
AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THE
BREEZE...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MID AFTERNOON ON
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL PERSIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FCST PD (SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. A FEW OF
THE MODELS GENERATE UP TO 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE WEST HALF BUT FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT SHRA SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY FCST. WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
UPPER MI WITH 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
COULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN 8H TEMPS CLIMB TO 20-22C. HOW WARM THE HIGH
TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. IF WE GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE...IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI COULD REACH THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE OF MODELS KICKING OFF WAA SHRA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DEPICT DRIER CONDITIONS
UNDER RIDGING INTO TUESDAY SUGGESTING GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA NEXT WEEK WILL BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PROPELS A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. LAYER PWATS
NEARLY TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES OF 800-1500
J/KG WOULD INDICATE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. FRONT EXITING EAST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW LINGERING CONVECTION OVER ERN CWA TO END BY WED AFTERNOON.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS DEPICT SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL PUSH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SHOW ABSENCE OF GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. 8H THERMAL RIDGE
OF 18-20C AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY
PROVIDED CLOUDS DON`T MOVE IN TOO EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPES
OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES WILL
WARRANT THUNDER MENTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE S MN AND WI BORDER AT 18Z SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT DIURNAL CU
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI /SAW/ TO FADE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE IN FROM
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W HALF OF MN. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING E ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES...BUT AT THIS TIME STILL THINK
ANY SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL REACH W QUEBEC THIS EVENING. EXPECT A TRAILING
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MOVE OVER THE W GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND OVER ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
A LOW DEVELOPS OVER S MANITOBA AND TRACKS NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
SWEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME
GUSTY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY 25-30KT WINDS. A HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


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