000
FXUS63 KMQT 071050
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
650 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING
EAST OF THE CWA. WNW FLOW UPSTREAM ALSO REVEALS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE...ONE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER ND...ANOTHER PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN ALBERTA AND A THIRD ROTATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
FROM NRN SASKATCHEWAN. A COUPLE OF THESE UPSTREAM WAVES WILL IMPACT
WEATHER TONIGHT OVER UPPER MI.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS
Q-VECT DIV SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MIXING OF 12-14C 8H TEMPS TO THE SFC UNDER SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING WITH THE
ADVANCE OF Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES
DIVING SE FROM SRN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA INTO NRN WI AND SW UPPER MI.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY JUST SOUTH INTO NRN WI IN
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MID-LVL TROUGH...MODELS SHOW Q-VECT CONV SPREADING
NE THROUGH THE CWA SO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGHER CHC POPS FOR
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA NE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. UNDER NE-E
FLOW...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW
THROUGH NE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 S
SCNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE SFC STRONGEST LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL LIKELY BE OVER N LAKE MI AND FAR NW LOWER MI...WITH THE BROAD
500MB TROUGH KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNLIKE THE WARM MUGGY AIR OF THIS MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING AROUND 17C...850MB TEMPS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 10C.
THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MI TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
FAR N THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO INVADE...WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE SOLUTIONS GOING NEARLY DRY FOR MONDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...AROUND 0.2IN OF
PRECIP IS FCST IS FCST FOR S CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER ELONGATED WAVE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW WILL PUSH IN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS EACH SYSTEM TO ROUND THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY LOOSES
MORE AND MORE MOISTURE. LOOK FOR THE 500MB TROUGH TO FINALLY EXIT E
OF UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARMER AIR ON S-SW
WINDS WILL RETURN. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES...AS 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK TO AROUND 13C. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE W HALF FRIDAY...AND EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF UPPER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING W
TO E OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST
MODELS AT THIS POINT TO RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS APPROX 6HRS FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI...EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW OVER FAR N ONTARIO/S LAKE HURON. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOESN/T LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR NOW...AS
COOLER W TO NW FLOW RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
MORE 70 DEGREE DAYS AHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH COMES IN AND BRINGS INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. AS WINDS
SHIFT NE LATE TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND
KSAW UNDER RAIN SHOWERS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LINGERING FOG OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS/. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS