000
FXUS63 KMQT 110913
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NRN MANITOBA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN CANADA.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER SASK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARD THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING LOW PRES OVER QUEBEC EXTENDED THROUGH NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN
MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH READINGS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FROM NRN MN AND NRN WI
THROUGH UPPER MI. EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO LIMITED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BRINGING AN INITIAL INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR. SO...MAX DAYTIME READINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES IN AND 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C BY
00Z/WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...AS THE SASK SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -21C AND INCREASING WINDS VEERING FROM THE FROM THE NNW TO
NE. A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SOME LES FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
THE POSITION OF THE DGZ WILL ALSO BE MOST FAVORABLE FROM 06Z-12Z/WED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MON SHOWED ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE ICE COVER FOR
AT LEAST SOME HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE TO SUPPORT LES. SINCE
THE ICE WILL STILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE LES POTENTIAL...EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE NE WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT IWD...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES/AMOUNTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST...OR FOR THE KEWEENAW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO AND WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -20 LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE CREATED
SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...NOT THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH ASSISTANCE
TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH 900MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
-22C. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE TOO STRONG AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. DID SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION FROM THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WONDERING IF CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL). THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST
VALUES OF -10F TO -18F OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF. WOULD EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM OVER THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND
MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN UNDER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GEM/ECMWF/NAM CONSISTENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH THIS WAA ON THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF THIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL TREND VALUES UP TO CHANCES AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS
THEY HEAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL AREA TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MIGHT
SEE UP TO A HALF INCH TOWARDS IRONWOOD AND THEN DIMINISHING AMOUNTS
HEADING EAST.

BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...FOCUS TURNS TO THE LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG AT 18Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW
WELL OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH IN-TURN CONTROLS THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FARTHEST NORTH (ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS
OF THE UKMET) AND RUNNING THE LOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE
GEM HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. ALL
IN ALL...THESE DIFFERENCES WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE
LAND CWA PRECIPITATION...SINCE THE WAA PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER REALLY WARM DAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREA WILL SEE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE ARE ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD SURGE AND WITH SOME GAPS STARTING TO SHOW
IN THE ICE NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO GO
WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER
AND POTENTIAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR IDEA AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THAT PUTS CHANCES OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FOR
SATURDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND HAVE
DIMINISHED POPS HEADING INTO SUNDAY (EVENTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND -17C). WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO
LOWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD START AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY...BUT IT/S INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME HI CLDS/STEADY WINDS LIMITING
THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AT ALL
3 TAFS SITES THRU SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WL PASS THRU UPR MI ON TUE
MRNG. THE RETURN OF COLDER AND MOISTER LLVL AIR AIDED BY SOME
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN MVFR SC DECK AT
ALL 3 LOCATIONS BY TUE AFTN. THE APRCH OF A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVNG MAY BRING SOME SHSN TO THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY AT IWD WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH NW TO N WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB