Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 181911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
311 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

Seems as though mother nature has the U.P. stuck in the rinse-n-
repeat cycle, with continued rain/clouds; however, it does appear
some adjustments are taking place. The trough axis/shortwave over
the region will shift the warm/humid conditions to the east, with a
quasi-zonal/northwest flow building in for the upcoming week. Temps
this afternoon have struggled to warm due to the thick solar shield
overhead, keeping temps generally in the 50s to a few low 60s in the
far southern portions of the U.P. The precip shield has shifted
northeast over Lake Superior, but with heights beginning to rise
along the western CWFA showers have become less organized with more
cellular/scattered coverage.

Overnight skies will remain cloudy with a few spotty showers, but
expect a period between 6-12z Mon to have dry weather. Then guidance
indicates a weak lobe of vorticy to pivot southeast along the back
side of the 500mb trough axis and help to re-introduce rain around
15z thru Mon aftn/eve. With temps a thermal trough overhead, expect
some differential heating within the column to help maringally
destabilize and produce some isolated thunderstorms by 18z Mon and
persist thru the afternoon. The main instability axis does appear to
be south of Marquette along the Michigan/Wisconsin stateline.
Otherwise to the north chances of rain will return. Highs Mon will
continue unseasonably cool in the low/mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

Overall, there is no end in site for the daily chances for
precipitation as we remain in an active weather pattern with
northwest flow transitioning over to zonal flow, with numerous
shortwaves progged to roll across the region. Temperatures will
start off cooler on Tuesday as we remain north of the jet stream,
and then gradually warm to near normal through the end of the week.
This weekend looks to remain seasonal, with additional chances for
precipitation towards the latter half of the weekend.

Precipitation wise, diurnal showers are possible on Tuesday mostly
across the central and east, and then better chances for widespread
showers and possibly thunderstorms arrive late Wednesday through
Thursday as a cold front pushes east across Upper Michigan. A few
strong storms may be possible if enough moisture can return this far
north ahead of this front, given the amount of shear progged to be
in place. Any lingering showers and storms should continue to push
east through the day on Thursday, allowing things to dry out from
west to east. Friday through the weekend, numerous shortwaves will
traverse the area bringing additional chances for precipitation. The
best chances for precipitation will be in the afternoon and evening
hours, with diurnal heating. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

Showers and LIFR conds will be slowly departing to the
east/northeast, but expect IFR CIGs to linger through late
tonight. Winds will be shifting to the northwest, which should aid
in lifting CIGs to low-end MVFR conds. Dry weather should arrive
late tonight thru Monday morning, but with another weak low
pressure arriving midday Mon expect chance of rain to return by
late Mon morning.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

Low pressure system will depart Lake Superior to the Northeast, this
will usher in slightly cooler air with northwest winds between 15-
20kt. This will help to build waves slightly along the Lake Superior
shoreline. With cooler/less-humid air flowing over the lake, expect
any fog to slowly dissipate by late tonight/early Monday.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...Ritzman
MARINE...Beachler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.