Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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921
FXUS63 KMQT 030956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW OVER ERN IA AND SERN LOWER MI AND A STRONG
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER IA HAVE LED TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER MAINLY WRN/NWRN AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT.
SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI SAW A BURST OF SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED THERE
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTED NW. OVERALL...THE HRRR/RAP HAVE
PERFORMED WELL TONIGHT IN SHOWING INCREASE IN SNOW RATES OVER THE
NCENTRAL AND NW AS UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASED WHILE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALSO STRENGTHENED. FOLLOWED RAP/HRRR MODEL TRENDS IN THE
NEAR TERM.

NW EDGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN PLACES TOO FAR NW BY
MOST MODELS...THE GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THAT SO FOLLOWED IT
INTO THE FUTURE. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E THIS MORNING.

A LOT OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE JUST SE OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND A BOOST IN SNOWFALL RATES/AMOUNTS.
AFTER THAT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LES THROUGH TONIGHT IN
N THEN NW WIND SNOWBELTS.

COULD HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES FROM DICKINSON COUNTY THROUGH
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF CRITERIA...BUT WITH ROADS LIKELY STILL SLIPPERY...SOME
BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY...AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING IN...DECIDED TO JUST LET
THOSE CONTINUE. DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE ONLY GO UNTIL 12Z TODAY AND
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT UNTIL 18Z. COULD CERTAINLY SEE PULLING
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT EARLY IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT BECOME
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT CALL AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED. ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES MAY ONLY END UP WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS...BUT SAW NO BENEFIT TO CANCELING THE
WARNING AND CHANGING TO AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBLEM ALONG M-28 LATER TODAY. THINK OTHER
WARNINGS WILL WORK OUT JUST FINE...SO LEFT THOSE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C TO -15C. THE COMBINATION OF DELTA
T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AN ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY OVER THE WEST WHILE THE EAST CONTINUES TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 6-7KFT
IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND 3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT...AGAIN
POINTING TOWARD THE DIMINISHING TREND. OVER THE EAST
HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STAY AROUND 6-7KFT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE IN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AROUND 19:1
TO 22:1 ALONG WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES FOR THE
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AND VERY BRIEF
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AS ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND -14C TO -15C WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK UP AGAIN.
THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AS WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 6-8KFT AS THE
WAVE SLIDES THROUGH WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP PEG ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WESTERN U.P./KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY
OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KFT. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C TO -15C. THIS WILL
ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD
OCCUR FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELDS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE SHOWING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD END UP BRINGING WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW
ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST GFS/EC
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...PREVIOUS MODEL RUN COMPARISONS SHOW
THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENTS FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS
POINT WILL NOT GET INTO THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT. THE TREND WOULD
BE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NE...CREATING
BLSN AT TIMES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME FZDZ AT
SAW FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WED WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VSBYS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE EVEN IF THIS
OCCURS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT WED EVENING TO MVFR AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS
OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>007-009-084-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013-
     014.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ010>012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS



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