Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 051919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER



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