Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
704 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

Low pressure around 990mb tracking north of Lk Superior this aftn.
Have seen breezy conditions at times, especially near Lk Superior
and over eastern forecast area. Warm up has arrived over parts of
Upper Michigan with mid 40s observed over western Upper Michigan.
Temps have stayed in the low to mid 30s elsewhere. A lot of dry air
to overcome in low-levels but could be enough lift with the low for
some drizzle or flurries this aftn east, then this evening over much
of the forecast area as band of deeper moisture and steeper lapse
rates move through along sfc low pressure trough. Plenty of high
clouds regardless until late tonight so min temps tonight should be
in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Intervals of clouds and sunshine on
Saturday. Dwpnts will be on the rise, but think extensive low clouds
as some models show is too aggressive. Not as much wind on Saturday
and expect highs similar to today, mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 406 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

...A winter storm remains possible Monday into Tuesday...

Overall, the main forecast concern remains with the possible winter
storm Monday into Tuesday. Those who have travel plans across Upper
Michigan should monitor the forecast over the up and coming days
closely, as the details in regards to this system and possible
impacts will be refined.

Potential Winter Storm Monday into Tuesday: Over the next few days a
longwave trough is progged to push onshore and track across the
western and central CONUS, favoring the development of a lee cyclone
across the central Plains which will gradually lift northeast across
northern Illinois and lower Michigan Monday through Tuesday. This
system will bring wintry precipitation to the region; however, at
this time the track of the axis for wet, heavy snow and the onset of
this wintry precipitation remains uncertain across Upper Michigan.
The GFS and the tail-end of the NAM favor a more western track with
the heavier band of system snow; whereas, the ECMWF and Canadian
track this band across central Upper Michigan. Forecast sounding
show some locations, mainly across the south-central and along Lake
Michigan, may see periods of freezing drizzle as we lose the deeper
moisture and lift. But to reiterate, this will be highly dependent
on the track of the system. Given the uncertainty, opted to hold off
on issuing a winter storm watch and opted to update the Special
Weather Statement to highlight and draw attention to this time
period. Over the next day or so, once we start to get better
sampling across the RAOB network the expected hazards and impacts
will become more clear.

After the system exits the region, we could see a brief period of
lingering lake effect snow through the middle of the week, but this
will be highly dependent on how cold 850mb temperatures get. We
should see a break in the wintry precipitation towards the end of
the week as high pressure tracks across the region, before another
round of warm air advection is progged to return and favor the
development of rain/snow.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 703 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites with mid to upper level
clouds.  A vigorous low-level jet will result in LLWS at KSAW
through this evening.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018

Northeast gales are expected across most of Lake Superior Monday
into Tuesday. Heavy freezing spray is expected Monday night through
Tuesday night.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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