Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 251858
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
258 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the wrn U.S. with several
shortwaves in the central plains. These shortwaves will be the
weather maker for tonight and Thu as one of the shortwaves ejects
out of the wrn U.S. trough. Deeper moisture returns tonight and
remains over the area into Thu. Nam shows some strong isentropic
lift on I300K surfaces tonight with deep moisture moving through
the cwa. GFS and ECMWF show about the same thing as well.

Looks like a decent chance for rain tonight and have likely pops
spreading from west to east overnight. Could see with this whole
event 0.25-0.75 inch of rain with the highest amounts in the western
cwa through Thu afternoon. Looks like late tonight there would be a
break in the morning...then confidence becomes lower in the
afternoon for pops. Some models are going completely dry while
others are putting out some qpf. Went middle of the road and could
be conceivable after a break in the morning...could see
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon
with heating of the day and lake breeze boundaries helping to aid in
the convection that forms and have some slight chance and low chance
pops to account for this on land. Did not make too many changes to
the going forecast overall. Did keep some mention of fog in for
tonight through Thu morning for the area as winds will be light
tonight and low level moisture will again be abundant with the rain
developing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 512 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Southwest mid/upper level flow from the plains into the western
Great Lakes will prevail through this weekend between a mid/upper
level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the east.
Shortwave troughs emerging from the plains will bring rounds of
shra/tsra into the cwa. However, confidence in the the timing,
intensity and position of each of the shrtwvs is low as is typical
with patterns dominated by warm season convection. By early next
week, a more zonal but still active pattern is expected.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.

Thursday, Some showers and a few tsra may still linger over the
eastern cwa in the morning as a shrtwv moves away from the area. mid
level ridging and weak qvector div during the rest of the day will
be less favorable for additional tsra during the afternoon even
though temps in the lower 80s will push MLCAPE values into the 1k-2k
J/Kg range. However, some isold shra/tsra may still develop along
lake breeze boundaries.

Friday through Sunday, Higher shra/tsra chances are expected by
Friday night into Saturday as a warm front provides a focus for pcpn
along with the likelihood of shrtwvs emerging a deepening trough
over the plains. Although confidence is limited with the timing, the
models suggest that a stronger shortwave and associated surface low
will finally lift through the upper MS valley toward the northern
Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday bringing additional shra/tsra
with slightly drier air moving in by late Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday, The models are trending toward a period of mid
level ridging may bring a respite from the pcpn with shra/tsra
chances moving back in by late Tuesday. However confidence in these
details is still marginal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Low clouds will dissipate this afternoon with VFR conditions to
follow until convection moves in tonight. Quite uncertain with the
timing/coverage/intensity of convection late this evening and
tonight, but went with a blend of mesoscale models. Best chances for
thunderstorms will be at KIWD. Will have conditions deteriorate with
the rain moving in late tonight to lifr/vlifr at all sites. Have
LLWS in at SAW overnight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 257 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

A period of NE winds up to 25 knots is expected over the western
lake today into early tonight and across the eastern lake late
tonight into Thu morning as low pressure develops over the plains
and moves to the Upper MS valley. Otherwise, expect winds at or
below 20 knots through the forecast period. Fog will continue to be
a problem at times and will be dependent on the rain that falls.
For now, went with widespread fog at times.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for
     LSZ162-240>242-263.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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