Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 272333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
733 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Visible satellite shows widespread cloud cover across Upper Michigan
which has spread in from convection over MN and nw WI. Water vapor
imagery shows a well-defined shortwave over central MN which is
poised to move into nw and central WI. Models indicate Q-vector
convergence ahead of this shortwave may continue to support
shra/isold tsra especially over scntrl Upper Mi into the evening
hours closer to the stalled frontal boundary over northern WI.

Tonight: The front and shortwave will continue southeastward tonight
as drier high pressure and associated anticyclonic flow builds into
the U.P. from the NW. This should effectively end the chances of
showers and thunderstorms across most of the area by late evening,
except for the far south central portions of the U.P. where
scattered shra and isolated tsra may linger through late evening
with model fcst MLCAPE of a few hundred j/kg over mainly Menominee
County. Skies will also begin to clear from the north allowing for a
bit cooler night tonight with inland temps dropping to lower to mid
50s...possibly falling into upper 40s over a few typical cold spots
over interior west.

Thu, sfc high pres will be more firmly building into the Upper Great
Lakes, pushing cold front well s toward the Ohio Valley.
There will be some cloud cover to start the day across the southern
fcst area on the backside of a shortwave, but otherwise expect a
mostly sunny. Should be a more pleasant day with highs in the 70s
and dwpts finally falling into the more comfortable low/mid 50s
across the area. N to NE wind ahead of mesohigh developing over wrn
Lake Superior will result in coolest conditions near Lake
Superior...closer to 70F.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a trough over the upper Great Lakes
00z Fri with embedded shortwaves in the trough. One is over southern
Lake Michigan, another over the western Dakotas and another over
Nebraska. These shortwaves do not have much moisture to work with
and will go dry for now from Thu night into Sat. Did not make too
many changes to the going forecast overall.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the Pacific
NW 12z Sun with a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes. The trough
moves into the northern Rockies and Northern Plains 12z Mon. A 500
mb ridge will build back into the central plains 12z Tue with the
trough topping the ridge over the northern plains. More troughing
moves into the northern Rockies 12z Wed with a cold front moving
through the area. Temperatures look to stay above normal for this
forecast period. Will have some low chance pops starting on Tue as a
warm front approaches the area and continue these into Wed as a cold
front moves towards the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 733 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Although some -shra wl linger at IWD early in the fcst period and
cause some MVFR cigs at times, expect predominant VFR conditions at
the 3 TAF sites this fcst period with a dry NE wind ahead of hi pres
over scentral Canada bldg toward the Upr Lks.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 334 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

High pressure, building across the Upper Great Lakes Region tonight,
will linger across Lake Superior into the upcoming weekend. This
will keep winds around or less than 15 kts into the weeekend.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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