Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 221427
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1027 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A TROUGH IN THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES HEADS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HEADS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE IS
ADDED A FEW DEGREES TO WESTERLY AFFECTED DOWNSLOPE AREAS FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ONLY
ITEM OF CONCERN IS AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA TO BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AND SEPARATED OUT
FROM THE REST OF THE FEATURE. MODELS STILL CONSISTENT ON THE BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING NORTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH STATIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION (AROUND A RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA) AND ALLOW
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS
MOST DAYS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST)...WHICH WILL MARK THE RETURN TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS FCST PERIOD AS A DRY
AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. UNDER TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX UNDER
A FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION. GUSTS AT THAT TERMINAL MAY
REACH UPWARDS OF AROUND 25KT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




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