Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY...THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500MB
RIDGE...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE JUST W OF THE CWA. THERE IS A
WEAK SFC LOW NEAR MPX...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE FROM THERE.
ALSO...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WITH A PLUME
OF HIGHER THETA E VALUES IN THE SAME AREA. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ON WV MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WITH ONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN CWA.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN UPPER MI UNDER THE SHORTWAVE
AND IN THE AREA OF HIGHER THETA E VALUES/SFC TROUGHING. ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST DUE TO THE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE UNCERTAINTIES
AND THE WEAK PATTERN MAKING FINE DETAILS HARDER TO PREDICT. THINK
THAT BEST PRECIP WILL BE LOCATED WITH THE WEAK SFC TROUGH AND THETA
E PLUME AS IT MEANDERS OVER WRN UPPER MI...WHERE SLIGHTS TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. DO NOT THINK THERE IS A RISK OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED N OF THE SFC WARM
FRONT...WHICH STAY WELL TO OUR S.

FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS NOT WORKED OUT AS STRATUS HAS BEEN
FAVORED IN MOST LAND AREAS...SO REDUCED FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST
OVER LAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A PRONOUNCED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY/SAT AS A TROF SETTLES INTO THE ROCKIES. ONE PIECE OF
ENERGY IN THE TROF WILL LIFT NE LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SUPPRESSING AND FORCING THE RIDGE EASTWARD SO THAT THE AXIS
EXTENDS THRU THE LOWER LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND MON. THE TROF WILL THEN
BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE
ENERGY SWINGS THRU THE TROF. END RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM/HUMID WEATHER EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AND THEN A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF PASSES. AS FOR PCPN...PATTERN THRU THE
WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AT TIMES...THOUGH
LIMITED AS HEIGHTS/RIDGE BUILD OVER AREA. PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING NE
OUT OF WRN TROF LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY TAKE A
TRACK FAR ENOUGH W AND NW TO PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHC AS
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE WEAK AS COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS E ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN MAY OCCUR MIDWEEK AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY SWINGING THRU THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE TROF MAY GENERATE
A LOW PRES WAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
SHOWN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE OR EVEN ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...THERE MAY BE A FEW SHRA OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...IN THE VCNTY OF SUBTLE DECAYING
LOW-LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. OTHERWISE...
STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS/BUILDING RIDGE AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (MOIST ADIABATIC) SUGGEST A TREND TO A DRY DAY IS LIKELY IN
THE OFFING. MIXING TO AROUND 850MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS AFTN
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WARMEST READINGS
(PERHAPS MID 80S) MAY BE OVER THE INTERIOR E DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS
ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED ALONG
THE LAKESHORES AFFECTED BY DEVELOPING EASTERLY WINDS.

AS ENERGY IN THE WRN TROF LIFTS NE THRU THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE WRN
DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CRANK UP THRU THE PLAINS.
WITH ONLY THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WINDS BRUSHING WRN UPPER
MI...SHRA/TSRA CHC LOOKS MINIMAL. WILL ONLY INCLUDE CHC OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR...LOWERING TO SCHC OVER WRN UPPER MI.

PCPN CHANCES ON SUN WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR E HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO HEIGHT
FALLS INTO UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP JUST SCHC POPS LIMITED
TO WRN UPPER MI SUN. WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES...SUN WILL BE WARMER/MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.

COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON.
SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...NOTHING MORE
THAN CHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED...SPREADING W TO E ACROSS THE AREA.
THE W HALF SHOULD DRY OUT MON AFTN. MON WILL STILL BE WARM/HUMID...
AT LEAST OVER CNTRL UPPER MI.

MAY BE ABLE TO SLIP IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MON NIGHT INTO PART
OF TUE AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS E OF THE AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO LIFT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGING THRU
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE TROF. GFS HAS SHOWED REASONABLE CONSISTENCY
ON THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
INCONSISTENT. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
IS SIMILAR TO THE GEM AND UKMET...SUGGESTING LESS PCPN POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT...A CONSENSUS APPROACH WILL BE UTILIZED...RESULTING IN
CHC POPS FOR LATER TUE INTO WED. COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO FOLLOW FOR
WED/THU AS TROF PASSES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LIGHT MAINLY UPSLOPE E-SE WIND FLOW
WILL LEAD ONCE AGAIN TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND STRATUS AT THE TAF
SITES. LOOK FOR KIWD AND KSAW TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH KCMX LOWERING TO VLIFR AND AIRFIELD MINS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT
KCMX TO IMPROVE TO IFR/LOW END MVFR BY EARLY FRI AFTERNOON WITH KIWD
AND KSAW IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE FRI MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES INTO MAINLY CENTRAL WI
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER THAT AREA. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLD SHRA BUT MAINLY OVER THE WRN TAF SITES WHERE I INCLUDED A
MENTION OF VCSH. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALSO LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO
AGAIN REDEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES FRI EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH MAY LEAD TO WIND
GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED MON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS EXPECTED. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE
ON LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS






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