Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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432
FXUS63 KMQT 012021
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
421 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 420 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over
northeast Indiana and a ridge from the nrn plains to north of Lake
Superior. Radars indicated weak shortwave spokes to the north of the
low that supported bands of showers. At the surface, light northeast
winds prevailed between a ridge over nrn Ontario and low pres over
the s end of Lake Michigan.

Tonight, radar trends and short range models suggest that the area
of forcing to the southeast and 305k-310k isentropic lift will expand
back to the nw into the se half of the cwa during the evening.
However, enough dry air remains below 750 mb to limit the westward
extent of the pcpn. The clouds over the west may be thin enough for
radiational cooling and patchy fog. Otherwise, thicker mid clouds
will keep min temps from the mid 40s to the lower 50s central and
east.

Sunday, the mid level low will finally slide far enough off to the
east to the ern Great Lakes so that the pcpn will end and for skies
to gradually clear across the west half. However, there may be
some lingering light showers or sprinkles over the far east and south
early. With increasing sunshine, temps will remain above normal
with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

No precip expected Sun night into Tue as high pressure ridging is in
control. Could see fog Sun night as ridge is overhead, then again
Mon night (especially over the southeastern CWA) as SE flow
increase.

Next chance of rain is late Tue night through Wed evening as a
shortwave and cold front move through. Not guaranteed as the
system will be pretty volatile.

Quite a lot of uncertainty after Wed as models show a series of
potent system, but are not in agreement on timing/strength/track.
Given this uncertainty, just stuck with blends and allocated time to
fixing some AWIPS issues.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Expect VFR conditions through most of the period as mid clouds move
across Upper Michigan to the north of low pressure south of the
region. A few showers may affect SAW this afternoon and evening.
Late tonight some fog is also expected to develop at IWD as mid
clouds diminish.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 420 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

A weak pressure gradient across Lake Superior through Mon will keep
east to northeast winds at 20 kts or less. Southeast winds increase
over 20 kts Tue into Wed ahead of front moving out the Northern
Plains. The strongest winds will occur over north central and
eastern Lk Superior. Behind the front on Thu, west winds may gust
to near 25 kts.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



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