Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 260000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

IT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES. OUR CURRENT N TO NW WIND REGIME BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT WILL BE CHANGING AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THE
SFC HIGH OVER S MN/IA/W WI CONTINUES TO BUILD E. WITH ZONAL TO
SLIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT...THERE ARE STILL A FEW SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
TO DEAL WITH. THESE ARE ASSISTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONGOING
SHOWERS NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER N MN. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS UPPER MI...THESE PESKY FEATURES...AT LEAST
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND STEEP 900-700MB LAPSE
RATES...WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER N LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 0.75IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO 1-1.5IN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE AGAIN TOMORROW /850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C/...AND
WITH S-SW WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EVEN THE AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
GET A REPORT OF 90F AROUND PELKIE-BARAGA...OR N MENOMINEE CO. STILL
EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO SLIDE IN OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID
AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ALONG THE
BREEZE...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MID AFTERNOON ON
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MI AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CONUS WHILE STRONG TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER ROCKIES HELPS DEVELOP
PRETTY STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. GFS SHOWS A LOT OF LGT QPF FM WI INTO UPR MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY
SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP WITH JUST A COUPLE THIN LAYERS OF MOISTURE AND
MINIMAL LIFT. PREFER THE DRIER IDEA FM THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL.
ONLY SMALL EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND FAR EAST CWA WITH MOISTURE FM
H8-H7 AND AT LEAST HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BASED WHEN LIFTING FM H85-
H8. PROBABLY JUST AN ACCAS FIELD WITH SPRINKLES OR SHRA. BEST CHANCE
WILL STAY OVER LK SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD FORM
BY AFTN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPS WEAK
RIDGE BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL LAKE BREEZES COME ONSHORE IN
THE AFTN...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S OR LOW 90S
WITH SOUNDINGS MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 TEMPS UPWARDS OF +20C BY AFTN.
THUS...WHEN LAKE BREEZE COOLING OCCURS IN THE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR
IT COULD HAVE SOME BITE TO IT...ESPECIALLY AT COPPER HARBOR/MARQUETTE
AND MUNISING WITH MORE OF AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED.

AFTER A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT IN THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT TIED
TO THE SCNTRL CANADA LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY...FEASIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE WEAKER
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES SLIDING OVER UPPER LAKES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ALL THE MODELS AT
LEAST HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY BUT GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THESE
SHORTWAVE AND SHOWS LGT QPF INTO EASTERN CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THINK
GREATEST FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...NEARER THE TIGHTER GRADIENT OF MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG
AND WHERE MUCAPES ARE OVER 3000 J/KG. CAPPING LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE
FOR CONVECTION CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE REGION AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING REMAINS STRONGEST WELL TO THE WEST OVER DAKOTAS AND
WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHARPER WARMING CENTERED AT H8 PER NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS. UNLESS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVES ARE STRONGER...PROBABLY WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER UPR MICHIGAN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO MAKE INTO UPR MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY
THOUGH AS MEAN WINDS FM WSW WOULD ADVECT ANY POP-UP SHRA/TSRA TOWARD
SW CWA OUT OF MUCH HIGHER MUCAPE AREA TO THE SW. CAPPING MAY DIMINISH
THAT POTENTIAL THOUGH. SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BTWN THE
PLAINS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH...MAIN LAKE MODIFICATION WILL BE OFF LK
MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS PUSHING PAST +20C SUPPORT
A HOT DAY AS LONG AS CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO DISRUPTIVE. MAY SEE MULTIPLE
READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FM IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DETAILS FAR FM CERTAIN...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE FROPA SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION...JUST NOT SURE
IT WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN. INCREASING SW H85 JET DOES BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT INTO UPPER LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C BOOSTING PWATS TO OVER 2.0
INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL TO START NIGHT...BUT DOES RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. H85 JET VEERS MORE
WESTERLY LATE SO MIGHT SEE MORE CONCENTRATED AND STRONGER STORMS
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN CLOSER TO PERSISTENT GRADIENT OF
HIGHER MLCAPE. STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO FOCUSED
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. WARMEST TEMPS AT H8 POINT TO STRONGEST
CAPPING OCCURRING SOUTH THOUGH. KEPT WITH CONSENSUS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS CWA...HIGHEST SOUTH...GIVEN STRONG FROPA/STRONGER
DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH MUCAPES OVER 1000J/KG OVER UPR MICHIGAN.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD
SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS NEARING 15KFT. MAYBE
BETTER WIND POTENTIAL AS 0-1KM SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS RUNS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS
COLD POOLS WILL BE ABLE TO BALANCE OUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. WITH
SUCH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIG HAZARD AS WELL.

SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT MOVES OUT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COULD BE WINDY BY WEDNESDAY AFTN AS WINDS SHIFT WEST AS SFC LOW
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 995MB HEADS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUDNINGS SHOWED WELL MIX PROFILE ON THE LAKE AND OVER KEWEENAW WITH
WINDS WELL OVER 30 KTS. COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH OVER
THE MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW. STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH LINGERING
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NW WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORELINE
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE 60S. MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS WITH
NEAR 80 DEGREES STILL POSSIBLE OVER FAR SCNTRL NEAR KMNM DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD RESULT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SYNCHS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND MLCAPES NEARING 500 J/KG. DID NOT CHANGE CONSENSUS POPS. AFTER
THE BLO NORMAL DAY ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK TO 80
DEGREES OR ABOVE FRIDAY THEN SLIP BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON THAT MAY AFFECT KSAW BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL REACH W QUEBEC THIS EVENING. EXPECT A TRAILING
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO MOVE OVER THE W GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND OVER ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
A LOW DEVELOPS OVER S MANITOBA AND TRACKS NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS WILL
SWEEP A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME
GUSTY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY THEN
WESTERLY 25-30KT WINDS. A HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF


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