Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST
FEATURING A W COAST RIDGE AND CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS BLO TO MUCH BLO NORMAL AT
TIMES...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
FOR PCPN...THIS IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR THE UPPER LAKES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE MAY BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT.

BEGINNING SAT...STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING SE THROUGH ONTARIO WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT NRLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT MORNING. THERE COULD BE THE TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO
POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ONSHORE OVER
MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-20 TO -25C BY 00Z SUN...SHARP TRANSITION TO A MORE
DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LVL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING
INVERSION TO 4KFT OR LOWER WILL LIMIT LES INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST
OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO MID TO UPPER 20S SCNTRL...TEMPS WILL
FALL THRU THE DAY AS BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW BY SUN NIGHT.
INVERSION HGTS PLUNGING BLO 2KFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DGZ DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN UP
OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE SHORE
BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA IF CLOUDS/LES SHIFT W FROM WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY DUE TO
DRAINAGE OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS BACK
DUE TO HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BY MON AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...MODELS INDICATE A VERY COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH
850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING OVER THE AREA WED INTO EARLY THU.
WITH DGZ DRIVEN BELOW LAKE SURFACE AND INVERSIONS AT OR BLO 5KFT
SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WED
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.

MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK (FRI-SAT) AS
AMPLIFIED WRN RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT KSAW...WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AND ENDING
LATE TONIGHT AND VSBY MAY STILL DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
FORECAST. MVFR OR VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REST OF THIS FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ264-267.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA


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