Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07


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