Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 301759
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a broad 500 mb trough over the upper
Great Lakes which remains through 00z Mon. Looks quiet for this
forecast period and dry and will continue to go with persistence for
this forecast. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Weak mid/upper level troughing over the southern Great Lakes and
ridging over northern Ontario will leave a sfc ridge in place across
the nrn lakes through Sunday resulting in dry weather and
temperatures near seasonal averages. The forecast into next week will
be influenced by a trough lifting from BC and the Pacific northwest
into nrn Manitoba Tue that will be reinforced by another vigorous
shrtwv Wed into Thu. Strengthening srly flow and moisture advection
will bring warmer and more humid conditions into the region along
with an increasing chance for shra/tsra as a frontal boundary nears
and eventually pushes through the area and weak shrtwvs brush the
area.

Sunday through Monday, expect gradual warming with max temps
climbing a few degrees each day. On Mon, max temps will generally be
in the low/mid 80s. Dewpoints will also increase into the lower 60s
Mon. Some models are producing isold pcpn near or over parts of the
fcst area from Saturday night into Monday. Confidence is low with
any weak shrtwvs that may affect the region. In addition, the
shallow moisture profile will also not be favorable for diurnal
convection.

Tuesday-Thursday, temperatures are expected to climb into the mid
80s with dewpoints into the mid and upper 60s. A weakening front
nearing the area and a more zonal flow with the potential for some
weak shrtwvs moving through the area may support some sct shra/tsra
into mainly the west Tue that could spread to the east by Tue night.
Mid level ridging ahead of the shrtwv lifting into srn Canada will
reduce pcpn chances Wednesday. Confidence is lower by Wednesday
night into Thursday as the slower more amplified ECMWF keeps the
area dry while the flatter GFS/GEFS brings the front more quickly
into the nrn Lakes and greater shra/tsra chances with strong 850
theta-e advection. The ECMWF suggest that the best shra/tsra chance
would be late Thursday into Thursday night as the front moves
through.

Friday, The models were in agreement that cooler and drier weather
with temperatures closer to seasonal averages will prevail in the
wake of the front.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Expect VFR conditions and light winds to prevail this fcst period
with high pressure dominating.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

High pressure will linger across Lake Superior into early next week.
This will keep winds around or less than 15 kts through the entire
forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07


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