Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 051740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER



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