Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 272323
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
623 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD FEB ACROSS UPPER
MI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROF COVERING NEARLY ALL OF
NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE JUST OFF THE W COAST EXTENDING N INTO AK AND
FAR NW CANADA. WITH MAIN JET WELL TO THE S...CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM CA TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND THEN NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PASS WELL S OF UPPER MI. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A GREAT VIEW OF THE ICE COVER
ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OFF ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES THRU THE ICE
COVER WHICH OF COURSE IS NOT AN UNBROKEN SHEET OF ICE. TODAY MAY END
UP BEING THE MAX ICE COVER FOR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WINTER. WILL WAIT
TO SEE WHAT THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER COMES UP WITH FOR PERCENTAGE ICE
COVER. THE MAX PERCENTAGE SO FAR THIS WINTER WAS ON FEB 23 WITH
95.45 PCT. YESTERDAY IT WAS 95.44 PCT. LAST WINTER THE MAX WAS 95.74
PCT ON MAR 5. WITH MUCH OF THE ICE COVER MOBILE AS SEEN ON THE VIS
SATELLITE LOOP TODAY...BREAKS IN THE ICE WILL GROW UNDER WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPS IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT ICE GROWTH POTENTIAL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THAT MAY BE IT FOR THIS WINTER AS ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD
A BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN THAT BROUGHT THE PERSISTENTLY WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS IN FEB.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E WITH CENTER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SAT AFTN...A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER...RESULTING IN NO
PCPN CONCERNS AND ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. WITH HIGH
PRES SLIPPING E...TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AS
PRES GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER. NONETHELESS...WITH A VERY
DRY COLUMN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WILL UNDERCUT THE COLDEST AVBL
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS. CONSTRUCTED TONIGHTS MINS USING A BLEND OF
LAST NIGHTS MIN TEMPS AND THE COLDEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS
IN MINS DOWN AROUND -20F IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA BTWN -5 AND -15F. WITH SOME STIRRING OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE NIGHT...A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MAY NOT
FALL BLO ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S). SHOULD END UP
COOLEST E OF ESCANABA WITH SSW FLOW ACROSS THE ICE ON NRN LAKE MI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL A WARMER PATTERN...OR AT LEAST ONE WITH TEMPS NOT
AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL...IS SHAPING UP COMPARED TO THE PERSISTENT
CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MONTH.

TROUGHING WITH GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF PUSH OF COLD AIR...WEAK
SHORTWAVES/LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION H85-H7 MAY GENERATE SOME LGT
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY JUST AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW ON SUNDAY AFTN MAY ALSO
GET BOOST FM STEEPER 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES FCST AFT 18Z JUST AHEAD
OF AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT. SNOW AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH...THOUGH IF SNOW BECOMES MORE SHOWERY ON
SUNDAY MAY SEE LOW VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GETTING TO BE THE
HYBRID TIME OF YEAR WHERE AT LEAST WITH THESE WEAKER TYPE
SYSTEMS...HIGHER SUN ANGLE RESULTS IN LESS WIDESPREAD/STRATIFORM
TYPE SNOW AND INSTEAD THERE ARE MORE SNOW SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF SUNDAY ENDS UP THIS WAY OR NOT. PROHIBITING FACTOR FOR MUCH SNOW
ON SUNDAY AFTN WILL BE FACT THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS AT H85 AND
BLO AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS OUT OF THE AREA BY THAT POINT. SUPPOSE
WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C TO -20C BEHIND THE TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT THERE COULD BE LAKE EFFECT. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LES WILL
BE HELD DOWN BY THE MAINLY ICE COVERED WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND
INVERSIONS WELL BLO 5KFT. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NW FLOW AREAS THEN DROPPING THEM OUT ON MONDAY AS DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERWHELM THE WEAK LES SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT REBOUND AS MAIN
JET CORE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SW FLOW ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
OPENS UP OPPORTUNITY FOR A RETURN OF WIDESRPEAD SYSTEM SNOW TO UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXTENT OF SNOW FM THE SYSTEM
DEPENDS ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING EAST-
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
ONTARIO TUESDAY AND MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS MORE DRAWN OUT WITH WHOLE IDEA...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO UPR MICHIGAN AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING THOUGH 12Z RUN IS MORE
OVERNIGHT NOW WITH ARRIVAL. ECMWF SLOWER AND BRINGS IN SNOW ON
TUESDAY. GEM-NH SIMILAR TO GFS IN HOW QUICK IT BRINGS IN SNOW...BUT
IS EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKER WITH DEPARTURE OF SNOW ON
TUESDAY. GEM IS LIKELY A FAST OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AS EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS. MIXING RATIOS PULLING INTO
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER 3G/KG ON THE GFS BUT ARE 2-3G/KG FM
THE ECMWF. GFS COBB BUFKIT OUTPUT POINTS TO SLR/S MORE IN THE 13-
18:1 RANGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY POPS ARE ON RIGHT TRACK.
SIGNAL IS THERE THAT HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. STARTING TO APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE NEED FOR A HEADLINE
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA. GIVEN THERE IS A CONSISTENT
IDEA OF SYSTEM SNOW WITH AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION AND THERE IS
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MORNING AND/OR EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY
WOULD BE IMPACTED...WILL ADD A MENTION TO HWO AND PUT LIMITED
AND ELEVATED RISKS IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

LINGERING LGT SNOW COULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING
BLO -20C SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WNW WINDS FAVOR NW CWA AND SNOW BELTS EAST OF MQT-P53 FOR
MOST SNOW. SIMILAR TO A LOT OF LAKE EFFECT EVENTS RECENTLY...LACK OF
OPEN WATER WILL HOLD DOWN ACCUMS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT WHAT SNOW
OCCURS WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VSBY. INVERSIONS MAY RISE WELL ABOVE
5KFT ON WEDNESDAY IF GFS SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WOULD SEE BOOST TO POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...AT LEAST
LOCALLY WITHIN MORE CONCENTRATED AND HEAVIER BANDS. A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF GAPS THAT COULD OPEN UP IN THE ICE COVER THE
COMING DAYS. WINDS BACKING MORE W-SW THURSDAY WILL END LAKE EFFECT.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SW ON RETURN FLOW SIDE OF HIGH. NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND SWATH OF LGT SNOW CROSSES
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SHOWN THIS AND
ECMWF AT LEAST HINTS AT THE IDEA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO GALES EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KTS. LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND
THOUGH SHIFTING WINDS WITH A SERIES OF TROUGH PASSAGES MAY CAUSE
HOLES TO OPEN IN THE ICE FROM TIME TO TIME...A CONTINUED DOMINANCE
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EXTENSIVE ICE COVER.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA



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