Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 291904
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
304 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Through Sat, high pressure ridge currently centered over Lk Superior
slides east across northern Ontario and Quebec beneath weak split
wnw flow aloft. Dry weather will continue with sct-bkn cu this aftn
and again Sat aftn. Light winds and mainly clear skies support some
potential for shallow fog tonight, especially inland central and east
where temps fall off into the 40s again. Lowest PWAT is forecast over
east half so typical cold spots could be dip to upper 30s to near 40
similar to readings observed at cold spots over the west U.P. last
night. Highs on Sat will end up in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Less direct influence of the high pressure will result in weaker lake
breezes so even shoreline areas should reach into at least the low
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Surface ridging over the Great Lakes will continue to influence the
weather across Upper Michigan into early next week.  As upper
ridging begins to build back into the Great Lakes early next week we
will see a steady warming trend.  85H temps will climb from around
12C on Sunday into the lower 20s C by the middle of the week. As
southerly low level flow increases...there will be a noticeable
increase in humidity.

Some diurnal shower and thunderstorms activity will begin to become
a possibility again by next Tuesday into Wednesday but limited
forcing will keep chances in the slight to low chance range through
mid week.

A cold front will move into the area by later next week.  Extended
models still differ some on the overall timing with the GFS quickest
with a Thursday frontal passage and the ECMWF a little slower.  Will
continue with a consensus approach with an increase in pops for
later next week with details being fine tuned with time.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 303 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Scattered or broken cu clouds especially this aftn along the lake
breeze boundary at SAW. Expect VFR conditions and light winds to
prevail at all 3 TAF sites this fcst period. May be some patchy
ground fog late tonight, with best chance at SAW. At this point
wouldn`t expect the fog to reduce visibility much below MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at
137 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

High pressure will linger across the Great Lakes into middle of next
week. This will keep winds around or less than 15 kts.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA



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