Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 301955
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORTWAVES/SFC TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRI
WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NOW (ALREADY OBSERVING PRECIP OVER THE WRN CWA
AND NW OF THE CWA) AND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE TO A LITTLE WEAKER
MAGNITUDES FRI. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IN MOST PLACES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND ALONG
WITH AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AGAIN FRI.

OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIP IS LOW...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN AFFECTING THE AREA WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS A PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A
BROAD TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF ERN CANADA WHILE A BROAD RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES A NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING A
SERIES OF MAINLY WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES TO PASS THRU
AREA RESULTING IN PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN. TYPICALLY...THESE WEAK
SHORTWAVES ARE POORLY RESOLVED BY MODELS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FCST IN THE LONG TERM. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN PERHAPS TREND BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

FRI INTO SAT...MOST OF MODELS HINT AT A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...ONE FRI MORNING AND ANOTHER FRI NIGHT. WITH
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING 100-300 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THESE
WAVES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN NW FLOW EXPECT ANY PCPN
FROM ISOLD CONVECTION TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE TRENDING DRIER AS MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING...ALTHOUGH A
POCKET OF HIGHER INSTABILITY NOTED ALONG LAKE MI COUNTIES MAY STILL
WARRANT SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE.

TEMPERATURES FRI THROUGH SAT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MODELS COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FM SCNTRL CANADA AND ASSOC COLD FROPA FOR SUN
NIGHT/MON TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS 30-40 PCT AT THIS
TIME...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE THIS MAY BE BEST OPPORTUNITY
TO SEE WIDEPSREAD ALBEIT LIGHT PCPN. MODELS ADVERTISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR MON-WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AS LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
8H TEMPS DROPPING TO 4-6C BY MON EVENING AND THEN PERSISTING IN THAT
RANGE INTO WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA NEAR KIWD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED COVERAGE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY INCLUDE VCSH IN TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.