Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
134 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Tight pressure gradient between 990 mb low over far northwestern
Ontario and 1032 mb high along the eastern seaboard continues to
produce gusty south to southwest winds across the Upper Great Lakes.
Mid levels remain very dry across the even though southerly
winds are transporting some low level moisture is
pretty shallow and trapped below an inversion.  The net result has
been lots of low clouds across the area with nothing more than a
little drizzle.  This trend will continue into the evening hours
ahead of surface trough that is currently moving through eastern MN.
After surface trough moves through the area this evening and
overnight tonight.  Once winds shift to the west...low level
moisture will be pushed to the east allowing skies to clear from the
west through the overnight hours.

Sunday`s weather will be very tranquil with surface ridging briefly
nosing across the area. Skies will be mostly sunny and with 85h
temps around 10C...high temperatures will be unseasonably mild in
the low to mid 60s.  clouds will begin to increase from the west

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Above normal temperatures and unsettled weather expected through the
first half of the upcoming work week.

Sunday night through Monday night: As the brief high pressure ridge
continues to slide to the east of the area Sunday night, low
pressure will slide into central Saskatchewan. Between the two
systems, warm/moist southerly flow will kick in on the tightening
pressure gradient. Additionally, a warm front to the south of the
U.P. Sunday evening will lift northward through the Upper Great
Lakes Sunday night and to the north of the area Monday morning.
Isentropic ascent, associated with the WAA/warm front sliding into
the U.P., along with increased moisture will allow for showers and
isolated elevated thunderstorms to develop Sunday night into Monday
morning. As the aforementioned low pressure system shifts eastward
into Northern Ontario, a cold front will shift southeast into the
U.P. Monday afternoon into Monday night before stalling just to the
south of the area. At the same time, a 500mb shortwave is progged to
slide into the region. This will keep a continued chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms through this time period.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Tuesday, the stationary front will remain
in close proximity to the U.P. helping to keep a few scattered
showers in the forecast; however, overall moisture looks to be
limited. Tuesday night into Wednesday the front will shift south and
east of the area as the aforementioned low pressure system slides
into northern Quebec. Drier air and more anticyclonic flow will push
into the area Wednesday allowing for a break in the rain shower
chances. Temperatures will also begin to cool closer to normal
throughout the day Wednesday with CAA on northwesterly winds.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A broad trough is progged to
slide across the Upper Great Lakes region during this time Period.
This will allow 850mb temps to drop to around -5C to -8C during this
time period with northerly flow off of Lake Superior. This may end
up giving some lake effect rain showers for north to northwesterly
wind favored locations. Have only kept slight chance of rain showers
in the forecast at this point, with a little wet snow possibly
mixing in over the higher terrain late Wednesday night and again
late Thursday night.

Rest of the extended: Models have differing solutions during this
time period, but the general trend is for a surface ridge to build
across the Upper Great Lakes region as the Upper level 500mb trough
axis slide to the east of the area. This would lead to a bit drier
weather for this time period with near normal temperatures. At this
point have gone with a consensus of the models.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

A weak surface trough crossing the region will be replaced by a weak
ridge moving in during the day on Sunday. This will produce VFR
conditions across all three TAF sites through the forecast after some
lingering fog/lo clds exit SAW early this morning. This ridge will
quickly slide east late in the forecast allowing a warm front to
begin lifting toward Upper Michigan...increasing sky cover late.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 307 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

Southerly winds up to 30 knots will continue into the early evening
hours over eastern Lake Superior. Northeast wind gusts may approach
30 knots over far western Lake Superior Sunday evening with low end
southeasterly gales possible over the eastern lake by Monday morning.
Winds through the remainder of the forecast should be 20 knots or

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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