Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201751
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE 1006MB SFC LOW
SLIGHTLY OFFSET OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED TODAY WHILE MOVING TO THE EXTREME ERN U.P. BY 00Z
THU AND TO GEORGIAN BAY BY 12Z THU AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
FAR WRN CWA. THE FOG CURRENTLY OVER NCENTRAL...ERN...AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WRN UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.
WITH THE LOW MOVES E TODAY...EXPECTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MI TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN. THINK THAT
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A RESULT
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY 12Z THU WITH A BROAD
500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ON FRI INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING LATE ON THU WHICH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT. ONLY DRY PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE POPS LOOKS
TO BE THU MORNING AND THEN BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE THU
NIGHT WITH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THEN FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. LOOKS
TO BE GETTING MORE HUMID THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING ON THU. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING OFF THE
EAST COAST 12Z SAT. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION 12Z SUN AND THERE IS A BUNCH OF WARM AIR WITH THE RIDGE
POISED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.
HEADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WHERE IT AFFECTS THE AREA
INTO TUE. STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND A
COOL DOWN STARTING ON MON AND THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EVERY PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES
AND PRODUCING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KIWD
HAS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE LOW CLOUDS AND
HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME BREAKS UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BUT THINK THAT SCATTERING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET AND BROUGHT CONDITIONS BACK DOWN
TO LOW END IFR.

AS FOR KCMX/KSAW...BOTH SITES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER THE DEEPER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...HAVE BRIEFLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS UP TO MVFR FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPED
THEM BACK TO IFR FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING ON
HOW THE FOG OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EVOLVES TONIGHT
UNDER THE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MAY SEE VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO
AIRFIELD LANDING MINS AT KCMX WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. FOG THEN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WARM...HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS
UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-244-
     249>251-264-266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS






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