Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191136
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
A TROUGH FROM SRN SASK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW
WAS INCREASING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE
PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL WI AND
UPPER MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NR CNTRL MN WERE SUPPORTED BY
310K-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH FAVORABLE 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
ON 40-50 KNOT WINDS.

TODAY...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD UPPER MI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND THE STRONGER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE IN. WITH
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO UPPER MI AND
THE PRESENCE OF A DRY 850-600 MB LAYER...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ONLY CHANCE FOR TSRA WAS MENTIONED OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE MUCAPE
VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 800 J/KG. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT TOWARD
AFTERNOON AND DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...A BETTER PORTION OF THE
40-50 KNOT 900-850 MB WINDS MAY MIX TOWARD THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD MAINLY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE MI MARINE LAYER ARE ABLE
TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC OVER THE EAST AND WINDS GUST INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY.

TONIGHT...SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING AS THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH
AND THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE(PWAT TO 1.5 INCHES)/INSTABILITY
(MUCPAE TO NEAR 1K J/KG) MOVE IN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSRA
REMAINS WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 14C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT WITH
MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCING THE
TROUGH ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT MOVED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY FOR SAT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA SAT NIGHT AS NEXT ENERGY ARRIVES WITH MORE MOISTURE. DID
NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH IN THE
DESERT SW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
TUE WITH A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z THU. WHAT
THIS WILL MEAN IS A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING ABOVE NORMAL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE MI MOISTENED AIR INTO COOLER AIR OVER UPPER MI HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS (IFR CIGS) INTO SAW. THESE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER OUT MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. WITH MAINLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT CMX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SFC TROF WILL BRING GUSTY S WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TODAY. FLOW IS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR KSAW...AND EXPECT GUSTS TO 30KT OR PERHAPS
HIGHER THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OF SHRA AHEAD OF
TROF... ONLY VCSH WAS INCLUDED IN FCST AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR AT THAT TIME. BY LATE
TONIGHT...MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF LIFR CIGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTING
EASTWARD. 20-30KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. A FEW GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PLATFORMS AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER MI SHORELINE. THE 20-30KT
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NW WINDS TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS
TROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB






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