Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 011553
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE 500MB
RIDGE...WITH SEVERAL LOWS OVER LAKE HURON...SE QUEBEC...AND THE TN
VALLEY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ALL THESE LOWS EXPECT ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

PW INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAXING OUT 21Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AT 1.5-1.7IN. LOOKING AT THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST CHANCE OF TS WILL BE OVER THE FAR W BY
00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
AFTER VIEWING THE MU CAPE VALUES THAT ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 100 J/KG
OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY THANKS TO THE
LIGHT/MORE STABLE S FLOW OFF LAKE MI AND THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW
OVER NW MN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO E MN BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT GOES...PUSHING THE SFC TROUGH W UPPER MI BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY BEFORE IT FLATTENS OUT.

THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION BRINGING IN THE RIDGE MUCH
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH IN PLACE. WILL GO
AGAINST THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...UNLESS IT/S 12Z RUN
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE SINKING OF THE
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND E ONTARIO/W QUEBEC  FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIT TO E ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS FROM S CENTRAL CANADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY STRONG
SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND S HUDSON BAY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY /ECMWF BEING A FARTHER S SOLUTION/. LOOK FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY OVER THE W...ALBEIT LIMITED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER MI WILL BY CUT OFF FROM THE BEST
MOISTURE /EITHER TO THE N OR S/. THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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