Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS







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