000
FXUS63 KMQT 301025
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

LARGE AND STRONG 30.8IN/1044MB/ SFC HIGH IS SET UP OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT/W
ND/SASKATCHEWAN. IN BETWEEN...AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM MANITOBA THROUGH ND AND W MN...THROUGH SD. TAKING A
LOOK ALOFT THE WV IMAGERY HELPS PICK OUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NEARING
FROM S MANITOBA.

AFTER VIEWING THE 00Z/30 SOUNDING FROM GRB IT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF
DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE MOISTENED UP BEFORE WE CAN GET ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. VIS AT CMX HAS BEEN ABLE TO FALL TO AROUND 3SM
OFF AND ON THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AREA WEB CAMERAS ARE NOT
INDICATING THAT MUCH OF A REDUCTION IN VIS AS A WHOLE. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE CONVERGENT S WINDS OFF LAKE MI FOR ENHANCED SNOW. WITH
SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND PAVEMENT TEMPS OF 29-31F...DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS. IN FACT ISQ IS STILL UNDER A 5KFT
CEILING. WATCHING INITIAL BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM NEAR IWD
THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER S CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
SLOWLY PUSH E THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME BETTER ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
KEWEENAW STARTING AROUND 18Z...AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH.

THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE EXITING E UPPER MI BY 00Z SUNDAY. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FCST WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TO A NEARLY 1.5-2KFT CLOUD
DECK OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT UNDER ONSHORE FLOW OFF.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE SET UP FOR MAINLY 01-07Z SUNDAY OVER N
CENTRAL AREAS. THE DGZ WILL REMAIN WAY UP BETWEEN 700 AND
600MB...VOID OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. FZDZ...DZ /MAINLY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NEAR THE SHORELINE/...OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TOTAL QPF OVERNIGHT
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 0.05IN MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LGT
PCPN ON SUN THRU TUE...WHEN TEMPS WL NOT BE TOO FAR FM THE EARLY DEC
NORMALS FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING OF THE DEEP UPR TROF IN QUEBEC THAT
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT CHILL. FOCUS FOR WED/THU WL BE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SGNFT PCPN EVENT AS A LO PRES TAKING
SHAPE IN THE PLAINS TO THE E OF A DEEPENING TROF IN THE ROCKIES
LIFTS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY UNDER THE MORE SW FLOW ALF TO THE
E OF THE UPR TROF. TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL MAY SUPPORT SOME MIXED
PCPN.

SUN/SUN NGT...UNDER A RELATIVELY LGT WNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
RETREATING ARCTIC BRANCH TROF OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MAIN POLAR BRANCH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SCENTRAL CONUS...SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO AT
12Z SUN IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY INTO QUEBEC BY MON MRNG. AS THE LGT
LLVL FLOW VEERS STEADILY FM NE TO SE...LINGERING LO PRES TROF ALONG
THE N SHORE OF THE U.P. IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST
BTWN -9C AND -11C DURING THIS TIME...MARGINAL FOR LES CONSIDERING LK
SUP WATER TEMPS ARND 4C. SINCE THE EVOLVING PATTERN WITH HI PRES
DOMINATING WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR THE SOMEWHAT HIER H85 TEMPS CLOSE
TO -9C/LOWER INVRN BASE BTWN H85-9 SHOWN BY THE 00Z LOCAL WRF-ARW...
SUSPECT ANY LES WL BE MINIMAL AND MIXED WITH -DZ/-FZDZ BECAUSE THE
DGZ WL LIE ABV THE FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTER LYR. AS THE FLOW VEERS
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE...THE HIER CHC POPS WL SHIFT FM THE NCENTRAL ON
SUN MRNG INTO THE KEWEENAW ON SUN NGT. SOME LGT -SHSN/-FZDZ MAY EVEN
IMPACT AREAS OVER THE SCENTRAL ONCE THE FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE ESE
ON SUN NGT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS ON MON MRNG OVER THE
INTERIOR E WITH A MORE UNMODIFIED E WIND OFF ONTARIO.

MON...BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CWA WL REMAIN DOMINATED
BY E-SE FLOW ON THE SW FLANK OF SFC HI PRES RETREATING THRU
QUEBEC...WITH NEAR STEADY H85 TEMPS NEAR -9C. WITH THESE
CONDITIONS...MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS FOR -SHSN/-FZDZ IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT IN THE EXPECTED ESE FLOW.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...THE 00Z GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS TO SHOW A SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV LIFTING ENEWD OUT
OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE W MOVING TOWARD UPR MI DURING THIS
TIME. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS PCPN AHEAD OF THIS LO OVERSRPEADING
THE AREA ON MON NGT. SINCE THE DEEPENING TROF IN THE W WOULD TEND TO
CAUSE HGT RISES OVER THE GREAT LKS...THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEAK SFC RDG AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE UNDER MORE PERSISTENT
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC...AND THE 00Z GFS FCST SFC LO POSITION IS
FARTHER E THAN SHOWN BY ANY OF ITS MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE FCST
MEMBERS...HAVE OPTED TO REJECT THE OPERATIONAL GFS FCST AND MAINTAIN
GOING SCHC POPS.

EXTENDED...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SIGNAL AMONG THE REST OF THE
LONGER TERM MODELS THAT A MORE SGNFT SHRTWV/SFC LO WL ADVANCE NE OUT
OF THE DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES AND IMPACT THE AREA ON WED
INTO THU. THE 12Z ECWMF SHOWS THE DEEPEST LO FARTHER TO THE NW...
WITH THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM SPREADING N INTO CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z THU.
SO WL INCLUDE A MENTION OF MIXED RA/SN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.
MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING H85 TEMPS FALLING TO
NEAR -20C...WL RETURN ON FRI AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LES IN
THE WNW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO IN ONTARIO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013

LINGERING DRY AIR WILL GIVE WAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES
ESE FROM SCNTRL CANADA. AS A RESULT...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WILL FALL TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK. WHILE MOST OF THE -SN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PASS N AND NE OF THE TERMINALS...SOME
-SN MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING...MAINLY AT KCMX/KSAW.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO SUGGEST CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS (IFR) TO
DEVELOP AT KCMX/KSAW AS LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN. WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR...BUT WITH NO INDICATIONS OF SUCH LOW CLOUDS YET UPSTREAM...
RETAINED THE IDEA OF JUST SCT LOWER CLOUDS. ONCE SFC TROF SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THRU THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
THEN N...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND
LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. AS WINDS SHIFT N AT KCMX
LATE EVENING...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

A FEW SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AND TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MANITOBA TODAY TO SWEEP OVER MANITOBA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUILDING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE U.S. AND CANADIAN
BORDER FROM WASHINGTON THROUGH MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT TO SINK ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME...AN ADDITIONAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD TO MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TAKING A LOOK FARTHER OUT...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALES OR NEAR GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF