Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 282115
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
415 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough
over the plains with a low centered over ern North Dakota. At the
surface, a 975 mb low was located over se ND with an occluded front
looping through ern MN into cntrl IA. The combination of a shortwave
trough and strong moisture advection supported a large area of rain
over WI that was quickly spreading to the north.

Tonight, the area of strong 700-300 mb qvector supporting the
upstream pcpn over WI is expected to lift to the nne through Upper
Michigan this evening and diminish across the cwa from sw to ne
between 06z-12z. So, the area of drizzle will give way to a steadier
moderate rain. With pwat values from 0.75-0.90 inch, QPF amounts in
the 0.50-1.00 inch will be common, especially over the southeast
half. Signficant drying will then move in late over the west and
south. Temps will remain well above normal with lows in the low to
mid 40s.

Tuesday, with the occluded front lifting to the north of the area
and qvector div and subsidence taking over, expect mainly dry
weather. Some wrap-around pcpn may sneak into the far west from nw
WI late. Otherwise, expect breezy southwest winds with temps slowly
falling into the upper 30 west. However, some sunshine over the
east half will help boost readings into the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

The low pressure system currently W of the region will weaken and
slowly meander across the area through Thu, with a couple other
waves possible coming down the back side of the system later in the
week. Colder air moves in late this week into Sat as an upper trough
moves out of NE Canada and into northern Ontario and Quebec. Early
next week is quite uncertain as models show differing solutions with
a system moving through the region.

Ptype will be driven largely by wet-bulb zero height, meaning more
snow during the night and over the higher terrain, and snow chances
will increase through the end of the week as the airmass gradually
cools. Best QPF through Sat looks to be on Thu when a shortwave
moves around the back side of the departing system and the SFC
trough swings through. However, mild SFC temps will keep precip
mixed or at least limit snowfall amounts with snow melting some as
it falls. Still some uncertainty there, but not a big concern at
this time.

Looking way out there, deterministic models are suggesting a much
colder trend beyond 10 days out, which is backed up with the CFS.
CFS also builds a large mass of very cold air across AK and the NW
Territories toward the end of Dec, which would signal a significant
pattern change.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Low level moisture streaming into the region ahead of a deep low
pressure and frontal system will maintain the low clouds into early
Tuesday. The downslope component with the se to s flow will keep
cigs mainly in the MVFR range at IWD and CMX. However, IFR/LIFR cigs
are expected at SAW. Light rain moving in again late today and
tonight along with fog will drop vsby into the IFR range. Drier air
moving into the area behind the occluded front as winds veer sw will
bring improving conditions by mid to late Tuesday morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 413 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Southeast gales in the tight pres gradient ahead of the deep ND low
will gradually shift off to the northeast tonight into early Tuesday.
The low pressure system will linger over the Upper Midwest Tuesday
into Wednesday. However the pressure gradient is not expected to be
as tight and should allow winds to diminish below 25kt by Tuesday
afternoon. Northerly winds to around 25 knots may develop Thursday
as the slow moving low moves to the east of Lake Superior into
Quebec.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
     LSZ240>242-245>248-263-265.

  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ243-244-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



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