Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 032105
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY A COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HELPING TO REDUCE
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING THE VERY DEFINED DRY
SLOT SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS DRIER AIR CAN ALSO BE
SEEN VIA THE UP STREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHERN MN. RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING CONTINUED SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC THIS EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY LOW/SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL SLIDE TO CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH
AXIS OVERHEAD WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. THE EXTRA SUPPORT PROVIDED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
EVENING WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEST IN THE EVENING THEN OVER THE
EAST HALF OVERNIGHT. DELTA T VALUES AROUND 17C TO 18C WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HOWEVER...THE MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL INTENSITY TONIGHT. INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL DROP FROM 5-6KFT IN THE EVENING OVER THE WEST TO AROUND
3 TO 4KFT OVERNIGHT. OVER THE EAST HALF...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
STAY AROUND 5-6KFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS
IN THE EVENING AND THEN FOR NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER THE WEST AND AROUND 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE EAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS. IF CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST...A VERY BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH MOST OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN U.P.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.P.
...STAYING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WI. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND AND JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THE SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO TOO MUCH WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED OUT OF THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ACTIVE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE FCST WITH A PARADE
OF CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS IMPACTING THE GREAT LKS AND BRINGING OCNL
SHOTS OF SN SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP INTO THIS WEEKEND. A STRONGER
GROUP OF DISTURBANCES WL DEEPEN AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF A BLDG RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING HIER LK ENHANCED POPS ON MON INTO WED. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN
AOA NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT THE WX WL TURN COLDER NEXT WEEK
UNDER THE DEEPENING TROF.

THU NGT...A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE UPR LKS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA
OF DEEP MSTR/AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL DRAG A COLD FNT ACRS
UPR MI DURING THE EVNG/EARLY OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH A NEAR ABSENCE OF
MSTR INFLOW/PWAT NO HIER THAN ABOUT 0.20 INCH WL LIMIT SN CHCS/
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA AWAY FM AREAS
NEAR LK SUP FAVORED BY W WINDS THAT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF LK
ENHANCEMENT...INFLUX OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING H85
THERMAL TROF/H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -16C OVER THE NW WITHIN CYC
NW FLOW WL ALLOW FOR LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS FOLLOWING THE
FROPA. BUT FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING UNDER THE DEEP
LYR QVECTOR DVGC/12HR H5 HGT RISES UP TO 80-100M WL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. LINGERING LES IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS MAINLY
E OF MQT ON FRI MRNG WL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
SHARPER NEGATIVE DYNAMIC FORCING/MORE ACYC FLOW ACCOMPANYING SFC HI
PRES RDG. THERE MAY BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER MAINLY THE SCENTRAL WITH
THIS PASSING SFC RDG AXIS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH H85
TEMPS FCST WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -13C AT 00Z SAT.

FRI NGT/SAT...ANOTHER SHRTWV/COLD FNT WL IMPACT THE UPR LKS DURING
THIS TIME. LACK OF MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT SN TOTALS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PWAT UP TO 0.30
INCH AND HIER RH WL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT RELATIVELY HI
POPS/ALBEIT LO QPF ON FRI NGT. BETTER CHC FOR MORE SN WL BE
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP FAVORED BY W WINDS/SHARPER LLVL CNVGC
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF
MUNISING. THIS LES WL DIMINISH ON SAT WITH ARRIVAL OF SOME LLVL
DRYING/SFC RDGING TRAILING THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA.

SAT NGT...PASSAGE OF SFC HI PRES RDG AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG/
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WX EVEN IF SOME
CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAA BTWN PASSING HI PRES RDG AND FALLING MSLP
IN THE NRN PLAINS INVADE THE AREA.

SUN/MON...RECENT OPS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON HANDLING
THE INTERACTION BTWN POLAR/ARCTIC BRANCH DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FCST
TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LKS AND ESTABLISH UPR TROFFING DOWNSTREAM OF
BLDG UPR RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
ON THE TRACK OF A SINGLE OR A PAIR OF LO PRES SYSTEMS FCST TO
ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. THE MORE PHASED 12Z GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY
DEEP LO PRES MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS ON SUN NGT...SUPPORTING MORE
WDSPREAD SN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL ALSO SHOWED A DEEPER SFC LO...BUT
THIS ONE TRACKED TO THE N OF UPR MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z CNDN SHOW TWO MORE SEPARATE DISTURBANCES/SFC LO PRES
CENTERS AND LESS SN FOR THE CWA IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE WEAKER LO
CENTERS. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A SCENARIO MORE SIMILAR
TO THE 12Z GFS. WL MAINTAIN CONSENSUS FCST FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN
INCONSISTENCY AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

TUE/WED...AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST...THE CYC NNE
FLOW ARND DEEPENING LO PRES SOMEWHERE OVER THE THE GREAT LKS
ENHANCED BY SOME LK DESTABILIZATION OF THE CHILLY AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS
FCST AS LO AS -20C TO -24C/ MAY BRING SOME MDT-HEAVY LES/BLSN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS AT LEAST PART OF THIS TIME. TENDED TO BUMP UP POPS
OVER THE CONSENSUS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE IN THE SN BELTS FAVORED BY
THE EXPECTED WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT EACH TAF SITE
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM IWD/CMX THIS EVENING TO KSAW LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM BLSN TO IMPROVE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS
OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL -SN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

EXPECT SOME N GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC LO PRES. THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT SHIFTING WINDS UNDER 25 KTS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SURFACE TROFS AND RIDGES PASS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS THAT COULD REACH GALE FORCE
ARE THEN LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEXT MON AS A DEEPER LO PRES DEVELOPS IN
THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KC


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