Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221930
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
330 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Models continued very poor performance today, especially with
showing an area of light rain and drizzle that has moved from
western Lake Superior into the western Upper Peninsula. It appears
the cause of that precip is low level FGEN and upslope flow that
will shift east into the central U.P. this evening and tonight. As
it does so, precip should become confined to northeastern Marquette
County. For Friday, skies will generally clear, except along the WI
border where partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Nam forecasts a 500 mb ridge over the plains with a closed 500 mb
low and trough over the central and southern Rockies 12z Fri. This
ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat and remains over the
area into 12z Sun while the 500 mb trough and low move northeast
into the northern Plains. The frontal zone and pcpn will get pushed
south and will be dry until late Fri night and Sat morning when a
wave will try to bring some pcpn into the west, but only have slight
chance pops for now. Next wave and chance for pcpn comes in for Sat
night and have chance pops in for the west half late. Overall, did
not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge on the west
coast, a trough in the northern plains and a ridge in the Great
Lakes and sern U.S. 12z Sun. This trough moves slowly east 12z Mon
with it starting to affect the upper Great Lakes. Upper air pattern
becomes increasingly amplified with very little movement to the east
through the forecast period with a slow moving sfc low pressure and
several fronts affecting the area this forecast period. Looks wet
with a slow moving system and temperatures look to be at or slightly
above normal.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Conditions will gradually improve at all sites today, but should
drop back down tonight into early tomorrow as moisture gets trapped
below a developing inversion.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

NE flow over Lake Superior with SFC trough over the Lower Midwest
and SFC ridge building in from Canada will support some higher wind
gusts of 20-25 knots mainly over the western half of the lake into
Fri evening. As the Canadian high builds more over the Upper Lakes,
winds will dip below 20 kts Friday night into Saturday night.
Southerly winds will increase late Sunday into Mon to 25 to 30 knots
over mainly the north central and eastern part of the lake as a low
pressure trough approaches from the west.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...Titus



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