Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
258 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the Upper Great
Lakes region this morning, with stout and fast moving shortwave
digging into the northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Mostly
clear skies have lingered across Upper Michigan this morning, with
light and variable winds. A few locations intermittently have been
reporting fog, but it seems to be shallow ground fog this far north.

This morning, a few areas of patchy fog are possible, but expect any
lingering fog to dissipate fairly quickly after the sun rises.
Expect a fairly quiet weather day across Upper Michigan today, we
could see a few light rain showers across the west and central as
the above mentioned shortwave digs across the area later this
afternoon. Given how dry the mid-levels are do not expect much in
the way of accumulations with these rain showers. The drier air
should also allow temperatures to modify nicely into the 70s and low
80s this afternoon as ample sunshine is expected. With much of the
area situated between high pressure off to our west and low pressure
to our west, the resulting pressure gradient will allow breezy
northerly winds to develop this afternoon across the central and

Any lingering rain showers will diminish this evening as we lose
diurnal heating and the shortwave digs pushes south of the area.
Tonight, as surface high pressure finally pushes overhead skies
mostly clear skies will work in concert with light winds and a drier
airmass and allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to mid
50s. The coldest temperatures are expected to be across the interior

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

Models suggest a mid/upper level ridge will prevail across the wrn
CONUS from late this week into early next week with weak downstream
nw flow through the northern Great Lakes and a transition to more
zonal flow by tue/wed. A number of weak shortwaves are likely to
move through the region but with limited moisture
inflow/availability, and weak dynamics, a mainly dry period is
expected. Temperatures will also remain near or slightly above
seasonal averages.

Thursday night, the strongest upper level div associated with a
compact shortwave and left exit of the 250-300mb jet dropping into
the nrn Great Lakes is expected to remain just to the north of the
cwa. Since forecast MLCAPE values ahead of this feature also remain
minimal, no pcpn was mentioned in the forecast although some
leftover sprinkles might survive across Lake Superior into the wrn

Friday, high pressure will build into the area bringing in
relatively cool dry air on weak ne low level flow. Flow off of Lake
Superior will keep temps near 70 north while readings over the south
climb to around 80.

Saturday through Monday, The GFS/GEFS bring the next significant
chance for pcpn into the area late Sunday into Sunday night with a
nw flow shrtwv trough and a weak sfc cold front. The ECMWF maintains
stronger mid level ridging into the area with any light shra/tsra
remaining well to the north. There may be a better chance for mainly
diurnal shra/tsra Monday as the front stalls near Upper Michigan.
However, pcpn should still be isold/sct at most.

Tue-Wed, higher pcpn chances are expected by late tue into wed as a
stronger shortwave and mid level trough moves into nrn Ontario that
will drag another front into Upper Michigan.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 123 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period as high pressure builds over Upper Michigan. A few light
rain showers are possible at KIWD later this afternoon. However,
opted to hold off on including mentions within the TAF as the
better chances look to be south.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 258 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

As high pressure begins to build across the region today a lingering
pressure gradient will allow winds to remain 10 to 20 knots. Friday
through the weekend as high pressure settles across the Upper Great
Lakes region, winds will remain under 15 knots. Expect these winds
to linger into the first part of next week.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Ritzman
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