Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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418
FXUS63 KMQT 191728
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1228 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the lower Great
Lakes this morning and a shortwave over northern MN and western ON
and a ridge over the western U.S. This shortwave quickly moves
through this morning and this shortwave and trough dig into the ern
U.S. by 12z Mon. Nam quickly moves some 850-500 mb q-vector
convergence out of the cwa this morning. Did not make too many
changes to the going forecast overall. Lake effect snow showers will
continue today and let up tonight as winds start to back and warm
air advection moves in.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 446 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Mainly focused on late Mon night into early Wed when moderate LES
and gusty winds will be possible. A couple shortwaves move through
the region, which will usher in colder air down to -15C at 850mb and
NW winds gusting to 30-40mph along the Lake Superior shore. LES will
begin late Mon night and taper off on Wed. Dry low levels may limit
accumulations some, but generally expect a few inches of snow in the
NW wind snowbelts. Looks like maybe an advisory level event if
anything. No significant impacts expected for Wed travels, since LES
will be lighter by then and only impacting a small portion of the
CWA as winds turn more westerly.

Potential exists for a more significant winter system and following
moderate LES Fri into the weekend, but there still plenty of
uncertainty with the track/strength of the low. Confidence in
trailing cold air putting LES into NW wind snowbelts later Sat into
early next week is higher. Stayed with consensus blend output for
this time period until the predictability horizon is more within
sight on the system.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Cold air flowing across Lake Superior on northwest to west
northwesterly flow will allow lake effect snow showers to continue
into this evening. The primary focus will be at KCMX; however, a few
flurries or very light snow showers are still possible at KIWD and
KSAW. Otherwise, winds will become more westerly, then southwesterly
tonight into Monday, allowing the lake effect potential to diminish
by late tonight into early Monday morning. This will allow for
steadily improving conditions at each TAF site tonight into Monday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 246 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected through this evening.
South gales are possible Monday night before shifting to northwest
gales Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, winds are generally
expected to be in the 15 to 25 knot range.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...07



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