Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 301956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






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