Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 251747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER MAINLY THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NEAR THE MTNS. PANHANDLE AREAS LOOK
TO BE CAPPED THOUGH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY MOVE OVER PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. REPEAT PERFORMANCE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS NEVADA AND WEAK IMPULSES LIFT NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE CWA AND COMBINE WITH A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW STORMS LOOKING A DECENT BET OVER
THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO NW COLORADO WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ATOP MODEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH WEDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO OPENS OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NE PANHANDLE WILL FOCUS CONVERGENCE WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST INTO CO AND KS THURSDAY. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CO BORDER THURSDAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS RETURNS IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE. A UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WILL BACK THE FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING EAST INTO WY. BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WY...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
(70S TO LOWER 80S)...WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY (UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR PREVAILS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20Z TO 02Z...PRODUCING LOCALIZED TURBULENCE...MVFR AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS. 09Z TO 15Z...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK WITH WEATHER EXPECTED TO STAY NON-CRITICAL. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE





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