Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 241759
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1059 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TODAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY...AIDING IN THE
OROGRAPHIC SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE.  WITH
MOIST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OTHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY DAY PER PROGGED GRADIENTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REALLY START TO CRANK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WILL CLIMB OVER 60 METERS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH STARTING LATE.

TUESDAY...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS...A HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS
QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CASPER TO CRAIG
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE WELL OVER 60 METERS...QUITE SUGGESTIVE OF A
LIKELY HIGH WIND EVENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
MAIN BULK OF THE OROGRAPHICS OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONTINUED QUITE WINDY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WED WITH THE JET SHIFTING EAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ANTICIPATED ON WED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. RESIDUAL
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY RETREATING EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LEFT INHERITED BLOWING SNOW GOING FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS TUESDAY NT. THE PATTERN FLATTENS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. AT THE
SFC...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL AND RESULTANT
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S WEST BOTH DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY DROPPING SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVR NRN ZONES. 00Z GFS SUGGEST PERHAPS SOME LT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DGW-CDR SATURDAY NT. THIS IS UNSUPPORTED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHICH TAF SITES WILL GET
IMPACTED BY THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF
CHEYENNE WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW JUST NORTH OF CHADRON. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE CHEYENNE TAF SITE WILL SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM THE
SNOWFALL AT THE TAF SITE. HOWEVER...YOU WILL NOT HAVE FLY TOO FAR
EAST BEFORE THE VISIBILITY WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AND CEILINGS
DROP TO BELOW 1KFT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MEANWHILE...CHADRON TAF
SITE MAY SEE THE CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
PICKUP QUICKLY TOMORROW AS THE STRONG JET ENERGY AND BETTER
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE PICTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ112-
     114.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WYZ103>107-109-110-114>119.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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