Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 200348 AAA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
848 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Made a few updates to the Winter Storm Warning across the northern
Nebraska Panhandle to carry it through the early morning hours
since snowfall will likely linger up there for a few more hours
before tapering off before daybreak. Also, extended the Winter
Weather Advisory in the south to the east to include the Kimball
and Sidney areas since a very slow moving band of heavy snow will
make slow progress eastward across those areas through early
morning. With the very cold temperatures, it won`t take the roads
long to get pretty slick. Otherwise, expect to allow the Winter
Storm Warning to expire by midnight where we have it up in
Wyoming, with eastern Laramie county continuing until 6 AM with
the Winter Weather Advisory, but we may be able to drop that a
little earlier if the trend of snow diminishing to the west
continues. Updated forecast package has been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Current forecast looking pretty much on track with some bands of
heavier snow now over western parts of the CWA working northeast.
Should see a period of heavier snow spread east across much of the
rest of the CWA this evening bringing a general 2-4 inches of
additional snowfall. Snow should taper off later tonight as
better energy and forcing shifts east of the area. Will keep
current hilites in place and defer to evening shift for any
changes. Very cold across the CWA tonight with mins in the single
digits below zero over much of the area. Winds light but still
cold produce some wind chills around -20 in some areas.

Mainly dry across the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday night outside of
some mtn snow showers. Main story will be cold temperatures
holding across the area as an arctic high settles down the high
plains. Max temps Tuesday only in the teens across much of the
CWA. Fortunately winds will remain rather light. Very cold again
Tuesday night with below zero temps once again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Some moderation of temperatures expected Weds and Thursday but
still chilly as the upper flow turns southwesterly and the cold
arctic high slips east away from the CWA. Snow showers will
continue to occur at times over the higher mtns in favorable swly
flow, aided by weak disturbances ejecting northeast ahead of an
upper trough over the western CONUS. GFS cuts off an upper low
over northern AZ Friday then moves it eastward to the southern
plains by late Saturday. EC maintains an open trough, moving it
across the area Friday night. In either case any pcpn should stay
confined to the mtns for the most part though some snow showers
possible over the plains Friday night if the EC pans out.
Otherwise a minor push of cooler air drops down the plains
Thursday night then warmer conditions should spread back over the
area over the weekend. Weak system Monday may bring some minor
cooling again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 437 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

IFR to potential for periodic LIFR at all airports in SE Wyoming
and the western Nebraska Panhandle most of tonight with ceilings
and visibilities gradually lifting from west to east after 06Z as
the main axis of moisture and jet energy moves east. Expect MVFR
to VFR all sites after 14Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

No fire weather concerns anticipated through late this week with
cool to cold conditions and snow cover over many areas resulting
in non-critical conditions.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for WYZ101>114-
     116-117.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ118-119.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for WYZ115.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for NEZ002-003-095-
     096.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for NEZ019>021-
     054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JG
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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