Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 181143
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
443 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Winds will be the forecast challenge in the short term as we begin
a prolonged period of possible strong winds across southeast
Wyoming.

Currently...Cold front that moved through southeast WYoming and
Nebraska Panhandle yesterday is currently across northern New
Mexico. Snow well south of the CWFA this morning with a brisk
northwest wind over much of the area. Getting reports of gusts of
30 to 40 mph as fairly strong northerly gradient remains behind
the front.

For today...A fairly raw day with highs struggling to reach
freezing west of the Laramie Range and mid 40s east. Those raw
northwest winds will be with us most of the day, so if out and
about today, we would recommend dressing in layers as wind chills
will be in the low 20s out west and near freezing east.

A warmer day for Sunday as winds begin to crank up from the west.
Have a shortwave tracking across northern Wyoming and Montana
Sunday afternoon and evening. GFS 700mb winds increasing to 45kts
across Carbon and Albany Counties. By 00Z Monday (Sunday evening)
local GFS strong wind guidance showing 850/700mb Craig to Casper
height gradients reaching/exceeding 60mtrs and 700mb winds
increase to 50kts. Confidence pretty high for our next high wind
event for the wind prone areas beginning after 00Z and continuing
into Monday. Went ahead with a High Wind Watch for Sunday evening
through Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Tuesday...Shortwave trough aloft moves across our counties early in
the day producing a chance of precipitation over and near our Snowy
and Sierra Madre Ranges, then dry conditions in the afternoon in the
wake of the shortwave. Cooler Tuesday afternoon in the wake of a
passing cold front.

Wednesday...Decent warming trend as heights aloft and thicknesses
increase. Windy per progged surface through 700 mb gradients and
deep unidirectional flow. Nice travel day with no precipitation
expected.

Thanksgiving...A relatively mild day for the holiday with northwest
flow aloft and relatively high heights for this time of year, along
with 700 mb temperatures near 4 Celsius, yielding maximum
temperatures from the middle 50s to middle 60s at lower elevations.
No precipitation expected due to dry low and mid levels.

Friday...Heights aloft decrease as the flow backs to west northwest
and strengthens, producing a windy day with possible high wind
criteria across our wind prone locations such as Arlington, Bordeaux
and Vedauwoo. Although will see a definite increase in middle and
high level cloud cover, no precipitation expected due to drier air
in the low levels and minimal lift.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 441 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

VFR. Wind gusts from 23 to 35 knots through 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Minimal fire weather concerns today as recent snow remains over
the area. Expect snow to melt fairly rapidly at lower elevations
as temperatures climb into the 40s east of the Laramie Range. Out
west...snowpack may linger another day. Winds on the increase
Sunday as upper level system moves across northern Wyoming and
southern Montana. These strong winds to continue into Monday with
afternoon humidity falling close to critical across the southern
Nebraska Panhandle and portions of Laramie...Goshen and Platte
Counties. Windy week ahead with no precipitation that could lead
to elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
     for WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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