Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 300526
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1126 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW (RAIN STILL IN
THE FAR NORTH) OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. REPORTS SO
FAR INDICATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A SIGNIFICANT DUSTING TO
ROUGHLY 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG I-80 FROM THE
SUMMIT TO BRIDGEPORT. RAIN CHANGED OVER TO SNOW A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SO BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS A LITTLE
OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

TOUGH FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS AND
TIMING ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING BANDED PRECIP OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO CHEYENNE COUNTY. IT HAS BEEN SNOWING HERE ALL
AFTERNOON...BUT SNOW HAS NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING DUE TO FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS IN THE PANHANDLE ARE ABOVE 32...SO WET
BULBING WILL BE DIFFICULT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WYDOT ROAD
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 AS OF 2 PM.

FOR TONIGHT...BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TURN OVER
TIME TO SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. MID TO UPPER 30 DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
ARE GOING TO INHIBIT THIS CHANGEOVER AS TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO
BE HARD TO FALL. SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TOWARDS MIDNIGHT FOR ALLIANCE AND A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT CHADRON. FIRST BAND OF MODERATE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD ALL FALL AS RAIN...WHICH WILL REALLY CUT INTO
SNOW AMOUNTS.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH SUN ANGLE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S SATURDAY WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SHOULD
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY...SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO
BE MINOR.

WITH ALL THIS SAID...DECIDED TO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS AS
ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EVENING/NIGHT CREW WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CHANGE OVER TIMES THAT WOULD ALTER THESE PLANS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WELL OUT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
WITH LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-
MOST ZONES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MIDLEVELS AND ALOFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING FOR A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BY
FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GIVEN FAIRLY DAMP CONDITIONS WITH ONGOING STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA MID WEEK AND OUR RELATIVELY DRIEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS PROJECTED THEN TO REMAIN
ABOVE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ101-102-
     106>108-118-119.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ116-117.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...JG



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