Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 242114
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
314 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE AS
WELL AS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES. SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE
SE OF THE CWA WEDS AFTERNOON BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
OVER THE MTNS WITH A FEW BANDS EXTENDING OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
IN FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY AGAIN WEDS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY. A LITTLE COOLER WEDS WITH A SFC HIGH SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARMING AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
TO THE WEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION AND HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
WHERE THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY INTERACT WITH A BIT OF
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DECREASE ON FRI AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
DURING THE DAY ON FRI BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRI AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.  SAT IS STILL LOOKING QUITE WARM AS PRESSURE
FALLS OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND SFC WINDS BECOME MORE
WESTERLY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH MIN
RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.  SINCE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTN
WITH DEEP MIXING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEFINITELY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.  A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS FCSTED TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS ON
SAT NIGHT AND THIS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR SUN.  THE
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NW COLORADO ON SUN WHEREAS
THE GFS JUST SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  COULD BE SOME WEAK AFTN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON BOTH SUN AND MON AS THE GFS INDICATES CAPE
OF 100-300 J/KG.  GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
35-40 KTS AT THE WY SITES AND 25-30 KTS OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL REALLY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET OVER THE
PANHANDLE...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY OVER SOUTHEAST WY.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE AFTER 12Z WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HAVE STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RED FLAG WARNING...THOUGH HAVE OPTED TO
END IT AT 6PM. CONCERNS THEN BECOME LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPS AND LESS WIND WITH SCTD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDS AFFECTING MOST DISTRICTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ310.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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