Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 111715
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1115 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Quiet and benign weather is expected today and most of Thursday
with locally windy conditions west of the Interstate 25 corridor.
Warming trend will continue today as the remaining lower elevation
snow pack continues to rapidly melt. Expect highs around 60 west
of Interstate 25 with highs between 65 to 75 along and east of
I-25 across the eastern plains. Southwest winds will increase
across most of southeast Wyoming by late this morning with the
potential for gusts over 45 MPH across Carbon county and likely
extending east and northeast into Albany and Converse county as
well by this afternoon. Further to the east, only expect periodic
gusts over 25-30 mph due to backing winds near the surface as the
lee-side surface trough will be located near the Laramie Range.
Models show a Pacific cold front pushing into central Wyoming and
stalling as it moves into eastern Wyoming Thursday morning with
winds shifting into the northwest. High temperatures on Thursday will
be warmest along the I-80 corridor from Laramie to Sidney Nebraska
with 60`s over far SE Wyoming and mid 70`s over southern Nebraska.
High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to
Wednesday, north of a line from Rawlins to Chadron Nebraska.
Models show a small chance of rain showers late Thursday afternoon
as jet energy aloft interacts with the stalled front near the
surface. Confidence is low that precipitation will reach the
ground due to a dry boundary layer, so kept POP below 10 percent
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Thursday night...Southwest flow aloft prevails. As a weak shortwave
trough aloft passes overhead, expect isolated to scattered rain and
snow showers to develop from Lusk to Chadron, with dry conditions
elsewhere.

Friday...Drying out period as the flow aloft veers to almost due
west. Cooler than Thursday with high temperatures in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Saturday...A fast moving shortwave trough aloft and its associated
cold front sweep across our counties, producing a cooler day with
isolated to scattered showers along the baroclinic band.

Sunday...The flow aloft turns northwest with considerable drying
noted, thus no precipitation expected. A slow warming trend on tap
with the moderating airmass. Breezy to windy based on surface
through 700 mb progs.

Monday...Flow aloft backs to zonal, west to east, and weakens,
aiding in the slow warming trend. The atmosphere will be too dry to
support any precipitation.

Tuesday...Strong zonal flow aloft continues, with breezy to windy
conditions expected due to flow aloft and the projected surface
trough along the Wyoming and Nebraska state line.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18z Thursday morning)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR with SCT-BKN high clouds through early evening. Gusty SW winds
of 25-35 kt will occur at KLAR and KRWL through early evening.
Higher gusts will be possible between KLAR and KRWL this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

No Fire Weather concerns for the remainder of the week and through
the weekend due to recent cool temperatures and widespread
precipitation earlier this week. Today will likely be the warmest
day of the week across many areas with highs in the 70`s and
daytime min humidities between 20 to 30 percent. Humidities will
trend higher late this week and into the weekend as a strong cold
front moves into the region on Saturday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...TJT



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