Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 241730
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1135 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

TODAY...QUICK WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES AND HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 12-16 CELSIUS EXPECTED TO
YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO MINIMAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODERATE THUS NOT AS COOL
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ONLY SLOWLY...MODELS
PAINT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
SPARK ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 DESPITE THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST OF OUR COUNTIES ALLOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING. WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE EXPECT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 WHERE THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE FOR THURSDAY BRINGING THE AREA SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY ARE FLIP FLOPPING THOUGH ON AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THOUGH. GFS NOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS
ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING. GFS
FURTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE. WENT MORE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST...NOT REALLY CHANGING POPS TOO MUCH FROM WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

ANOTHER ISSUE WOULD BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD GIVE US STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS IT IS FORECASTING 700MB
WINDS OF 25-30KTS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. FORTUNATELY
THOUGH...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KTS. SATURDAY COULD BE A RED FLAG
DAY FOR OUR FUEL READY ZONES THAT COULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...THOUGH FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THUS MINIMIZING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN INFLUX
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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