Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 100947
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
247 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Gusty winds and low humidity again expected across the Nebraska
Panhandle and areas east of the Laramie Range today.

Currently...1045mb surface high analyzed over southern Idaho again
this morning with a fairly tight pressure gradient remaining over
southeast Wyoming. getting wind gusts to 36mph at Arlington this
morning with gusts to 40mph at Bordeaux. Overnight humidity
recoveries again poor east of the Laramie Range with 20 percent
reported at Cheyenne and low to mid 30 percent humidity in the
Panhandle.

Going to be a period today late morning through mid afternoon
where gusty winds and low humidity will combine to create critical
fire weather conditions in the Panhandle. Red Flag Warnings have
been posted for the southern 2/3rd of the Panhandle today. GFS
850mb winds begin to ease after 21Z so day shift may need to
cancel the RFW early.

Strong winds again for the Panhandle Monday as 850mb winds
increase to 40-45kts out there with a Clipper system tracking
through central and eastern Nebraska. Definite cool down in
temperatures as this happens across the Panhandle with 850mb
temperatures dropping from +9C today to around +3C by 18Z Monday.
May be enough to keep humidity from going critical.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Upstream ridge of high pressure will yield northwest flow through
the period. The result will be an above average week for
temperatures along with mainly dry conditions. After a very mild
day on Tuesday, a series of moisture-starved clipper systems will
dive into the northern high plains and upper midwest on Wednesday
and Thursday. The main story with these clippers will be the
reinforcing shot of cooler (still above normal) temps Wednesday-
Thursday. Highs will fall into the 40s to near 50 both days. Flow
deamplifies a tad on Friday, as weak shortwave transitory ridge
moves through. In addition, low-level gradients should begin to
kick winds up close to high wind criteria across wind prone
areas. Medium range guidance is consistent in driving another
front thru the region Friday night. There may be a period of light
precipitation late Friday night/early Saturday morning, but
latest models have trended drier. Temperatures will again cool
slightly behind the front for Saturday. Long range outlook
suggests another high wind event Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday evening) Issued
at 1000 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR. Westerly surface winds 7-15 KT late tonight, becoming breezy
from west-northwest with gusts to 25 KT east of Laramie Range after
16Z Sunday. Winds will diminish somewhat around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Another critical fire weather day across the Nebraska Panhandle.
Will be a period late morning through mid afternoon where gusty
winds and low humidity combines to create critical fire weather
conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 AM this
morning through 5 PM this afternoon for FWZs 312 and 313. Winds
picking up again Monday as a Clipper system tracks across central
South Dakota and central Nebraska. Fortunately...humidity Monday
afternoon is expected to be a little better than today. Windy
conditions again Wednesday across the Panhandle as yet another
Clipper system tracks across central Nebraska.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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