Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 170419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...SFC TEMPS IN SE AZ RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS STILL AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S. AS PER KEMX RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO TWO MAIN AREAS...ONE IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY
AND A SECOND JUST LEAVING SWRN COCHISE AND ENTERING ERN SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY. A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO PUSHING WWD TOWARD
NOGALES. STORMS WERE MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER THIS EVE BUT HAVE
WEAKENED AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE STORMS SEEM TO BE
SHORT ON EITHER RAINFALL OR LIGHTNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
RAINFALL RATES AND PRECIP ESTIMATES WITH SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MTNS SINCE THEY HAD
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ONLY ABOUT 24 HRS AGO. DO
ANTICIPATE BOTH AREAS TO CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARD THE W AND SW WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PSBL OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...SO WILL BUMP
POPS UP JUST A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/06Z. THE BULK OF -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED
TO END AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT 5-10K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 25-40 PERCENT
RANGE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOLLOWED BY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AND BE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS NEAR THE BORDER SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD GIVE US A
LATER START SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

LOOKING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT MOVING AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WHILE UPER HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS SHIFTS UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.  FROM THERE DISAGREEMENTS EXIST AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT DRIER AIR FROM THE SW PUSHES INTO AZ LATE WED INTO
THU OR IF ANOTHER SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
THE STATE.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DROZD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS





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