Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 092123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
223 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures this weekend. A weak disturbance
will move across northern Mexico Monday into Tuesday, bringing in a
slight chance of very light showers across the southern half of
Cochise county. High pressure aloft will then persist through the
rest of next week, with dry conditions and above average daytime


.DISCUSSION...Warmer temperatures with gusty east winds prevailed
this afternoon. High clouds were slowly increasing from the
southwest in advance of an upper low well west of central Baja
California. High clouds will continue to gradually spread over
the area tonight into Sunday. This will result in warmer overnight
low temperatures versus the past couple of mornings.

As the upper low undercuts the western CONUS upper ridge and moves
over central Baja Sunday night into Monday morning, it will
spread higher precipitable water values up to 0.50" towards the
international border between Nogales and Douglas. Could see a few
sprinkles across southeast Cochise county later Monday afternoon
into early Tuesday morning. Latest model guidance suggests that
this upper low will meander across northern Sonora on Wednesday
before moving away from the area on Thursday.

Above normal high temperatures will prevail through next weekend.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 11/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL, increasing in coverage at times
tonight into Sunday. Winds ELY-NELY with the strongest winds
occurring at KTUS 15-20 kts gusting near 30 at times. Winds ease
briefly after sunset, restrengthening overnight into Sunday morning,
especially at KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Aside from a slight chance of showers later on
Monday into Tuesday in southern Cochise County, dry conditions
persist through the next seven days. 20-foot winds are primarily
from the southeast this weekend 10-20 mph, with some gusts to 20-30
mph. A few isolated areas could support fire weather concerns on
Sunday, albeit not widespread enough to justify Red Flag conditions.
Winds then decrease at the start of next week while still
maintaining an easterly component.





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