Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 031000
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system over northwest Mexico will bring a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow today. Dry conditions return
Sunday and Monday. Another system will then brush the state late
Tuesday into Wednesday will result in a slight chance of valley rain
and mountain snow mainly to areas northeast of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Widely scattered light valley rain and mountain snow
showers were occuring this morning mainly southeast of a Hannagan
Meadow to Sells line. This is a associated with a cut-off low
located just south of Rocky Point at 2 am. These showers will be
around through the remainder of the morning hours then start to
decrease this afternoon into this evening as the low continues to
move south away from the area. Dry Sunday into Tuesday with gusty
afternoon winds Mon and Tues. Models differ on depth on upper trof
moving thru four corners Tuesday night into Wednesday. ECMWF
deeper/wetter than the more progressive/dry GFS. Made some slight
adjustments to the forecast PoPs with best chances now relegated to
the White Mountains. Dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures, for the
most past, will be seasonable for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
SCT to LCLY BKN 7-12k ft AGL with WDLY SCTD VLY -SHRA/MTN -SHRA
across most of the area thru 03/23z then conds imprv from W to E
after 04/01z. ELY/SELY sfc wind 8-12 kts with gusts to around 20
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An area of low pressure over Sonora Mexico will
bring a isolated to scattered light valley rain and mountain snow
showers into this evening. This system may also produce some gusty
east winds today. Dry conditions are expected behind the system
Sunday and Monday. Another system may impact the region late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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