Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 202133
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POSITION
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW WITH TIME
AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...MODELS BUILD A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND
FRIDAY BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESS VALUES WHICH SUPPORT NEAR
RECORD READINGS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 21/03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA. A
FEW ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INCLUDING KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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