Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250328
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
828 PM MST TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY CONTINUED THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TREND...ROUGHLY 7 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE COOLING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A VERY WEAK TROUGH
PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH NEGLIGIBLE INFLUENCE TO THE AREA. A
SECOND IMPULSE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ALSO
HAVING LITTLE EFFECT...OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BRING THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY.

THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE TO THE AREA THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY THE RIDGE
IS BEGINNING TO BUILD JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
FLOW ALOFT NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AS AMPLITUDE INCREASES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST...PASSING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...BEFORE
FLATTENING TO THE EAST AS A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM ENTER THE WESTERN
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM RAPIDLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PEAKING
ON SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER.

EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE NEXT SYSTEMS TIMING AND LOCATION COULD CHANGE
THINGS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

CURRENT FORECAST SEEM ON TRACK...NO ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS. AFTER 25/19Z SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE W/NW TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
26/02Z. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AREAS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF MINOR DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD AND TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NEAR RECORDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL FAVOR A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND ONE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
THEN AN UPPER RIDGE...WHICH AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AND BE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. RECORD LATE MARCH WARMTH IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS INCLUDING TUCSON. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROF WELL OFFSHORE. ON SATURDAY THE TAIL END OF A UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT-OFF AROUND
30N/130W. GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE KINDA SIMILAR AT THIS POINT.
THEN THE START TO DIVERGE WITH ECMWF HAVING OPEN TROF MOVING THRU
THE STATE ON MONDAY...THE CANADIAN HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD
CENTRAL BAJA...WHILE THE GFS HAS A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
NRN SONORA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING REAL GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SINGLE POPS IN THE
VALLEY TO LOW END TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RH

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