Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 141556
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. GREAT VIEWING FOR
THE TOTAL ECLIPSE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. BREEZY TO WINDY
IN SOME SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOWS GREATLY IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS THAT STAY MIXED. THIS TREND BALANCED (AND COMPLICATED)
SOMEWHAT BY SOME CAA ASSOCIATED IN THE RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ESSENTIALLY ADJACENT OF JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
THRU WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT...THEN
SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE AZ FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TUE-WED. GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY TUE
MORNING...AND BREEZY WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

14/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRAW MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS THE AREA FRI. EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FRI-SAT. GFS/
ECMWF EXHIBITED SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL SOLUTIONS NEXT SAT...
WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS THE GFS.

AT ANY RATE...BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND PER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO/S...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRI. CHANCE-
CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOSTLY DRY MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AS THE BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF SE AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15/06Z SURFACE WIND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON NLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ELY/SELY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STRONGER ELY/SELY WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN BREEZY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS/FRANCIS






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