Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 041629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
929 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL
ELEVATE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 04/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDING NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOSTLY LEFT
OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND PUSHED INTO COCHISE COUNTY. STILL
SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...GENERALLY WEST OF SELLS. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

MOST RECENT HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THE EVENTS OF EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM DEPICTS
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM AROUND TUCSON EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SO...BASED ON THIS...THINK THE POP FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING ACROSS
GRAHAM/COCHISE/GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY. FOR THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL MAINLY BE AT OR ABOVE 8K FT
AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COMBINATION
OF BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORABLE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR FOR AN UPSWING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL READINGS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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