Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS
TO EAST OF TUCSON THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOTTER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SE AZ VERSUS
FRIDAY WITH LOTS OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. OUTFLOW SENT
NW TOWARD PHOENIX METRO GIVING THEM A ROUND OF STORMS AS OF THIS
WRITING. AS OF 915 PM ACROSS SE AZ...A FEW STORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND OVER EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
WILL RUN OUT AN FORECAST UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AREA WIDE BUT KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY...MOISTURE NOT GOT ANYWHERE AND MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING PEAK HEATING TIME. STORMS LIKELY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS SO
EXPECT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
ISOLD SHRA/TS CONTG UNTIL 30/09Z OTRW DECREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS THRU
30/15Z. AFT 30/18Z SCTD SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL IN AND AROUND STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. STARTING MONDAY STORMS
WILL TEND TO BE MORE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN ZONES...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY ON.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET AND AS IS TYPICAL MAY PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THROUGH SUNDAY GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS ZONE
150...PEAKING IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO STEADILY
PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...TUCSON AIRPORT ON TRACK BY MIDNIGHT TO RECORD THE 81ST
STRAIGHT DAY IN WHICH THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 70 DEGREES OR WARMER.
THE PREVIOUS 81 DAY STREAK OCCURRED IN 2013. THE OFFICIAL NWS
FORECAST HAS THIS RECORD BEING BROKEN ON SUNDAY AND UNLESS THE
AIRPORT GETS HIT WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...THIS RECORD WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO ADD DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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