Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
910 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms especially east of Tucson into next week.


.DISCUSSION...A few showers and thunderstorms continue across far
southeast Cochise County east of Douglas at this time. Otherwise,
clear skies to partly cloudy skies prevailed across this forecast
area as of 9 PM MST. SPC mesoscale analysis indicates that the
environment has become increasingly stable during the past few
hours, with MUCAPE values valid 8 PM MST ranging only from 500-1000

The official forecast for the rest of tonight was updated earlier to
limit a slight chance of showers/tstms to Greenlee/Graham/Cochise
Counties east of Tucson. Dry conditions should prevail the rest of
tonight from Tucson westward into western Pima County as per several
HRRR solutions. 27/00Z NAM suggests less coverage of showers/tstms
Saturday versus this afternoon, with the bulk of activity depicted
to occur east of Tucson.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.


Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of KTUS to the New
Mexico border from late Saturday morning into Saturday evening.
Cloud decks generally 10k-15k ft msl and surface wind mainly less
than 10 kts thru the valid period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson this weekend and during the
upcoming week. 20-foot winds into next week will be terrain driven
and less than 15 mph in most locations. Expect the potential for
strong and gusty winds near any thunderstorms that do develop.


.PREV DISCUSSION /243 PM MST/...With the influx of moisture below
500mb over the past 24 hours we are back up to normal monsoon levels
with precipitable water values around 1.3 to 1.5 and surface dew
points near 60. An eager atmosphere kicked things off around mid
morning in a nice convergent area southwest through south of Tucson.
If we could have cooked a little longer we might have managed to get
a little more explosive, however coverage has been good overall with
spotty heavy rainers. Our area of emphasis in the late afternoon and
early evening will shift north, northeast and east of Tucson.

An approaching mid level weakness from the west may keep a few
showers going overnight. The timing for this feature may not be very
good for tomorrow, with some drying again wrapping in under this
feature by tomorrow afternoon. The area of focus for best storm
development will probably shift eastward into Cochise, Graham and
Greenlee counties Saturday and Sunday.

Beyond that, we should manage enough moisture for a chance of
thunderstorms deep into the new week, especially from Tucson
eastward. Best days looking like Wednesday and maybe Thursday.





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