Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND PASSING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WINDS WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SURPRISES THIS EVENING AS THE NEWLY DEVELOPING
LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEST AND
ROCKIES WILL BE MITIGATED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW BY A LOWER LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS WILL SLOW THE (RELATIVE) COOLING TREND AS WELL
AS TEMPORARILY RELAX THE GRADIENT A TAD. WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES
OF IMPULSES SPLITTING TOWARD OUR AREA MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK FOR
WINDIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. TAKING A LOOK AT LATEST ANALYSIS
AND MODEL TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR. SFC WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 24/07Z. NOT AS BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MINOR BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS SUNDAY. STILL
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES AND GUSTS SUNDAY BUT REMAINING BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.

ANOTHER DRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR COCHISE COUNTY ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES. THUS WE HAVE HOISTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151 AND 152 BELOW
7000 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MIGHT BE MET ONCE AGAIN. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
WEDNESDAY...BUT PICKING BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. WE COULD SEE WINDS AND RH VALUES REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 (SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LESS WIND ON SUNDAY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
WIND MAKER. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.

OUR NEXT WIND MAKER WILL COME IN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
STATE ON MONDAY THUS BRINGING STRONGER SWLY WINDS TO THE AREA. AREAS
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BIGGER AREA THAN WHAT IS
OCCURRING TODAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. COOLING TREND CONTINUES
WITH HIGHS 3-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ON TUESDAY AS TROF AXIS EXITS THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE COOLING TREND WITH VALUES RUNNING 10 TO
13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. WITH A COLDER AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA...COULD SEE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING TOUCH
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.

BIG WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE LATE WEEK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.

THE LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM WITH TROF AXIS INTO NRN BAJA THURSDAY WITH ENTIRE
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF. TURNING COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEING WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON. CHECK
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ANY FIRE CONCERNS ON THU AND FRI.

THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROF
TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
   FOR AZZ151-152.

&&

MEYER

$$

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