Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 230330
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY THE AREA LATER SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  A
SECOND SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUIET EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH JUST SOME
CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM...OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUCSON WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING OF 33 DEGREES AND 30 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. OUR GRIDDED
FORECAST IS ALREADY REFLECTING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WILL DEFER TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE THIS AS TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. NOTE THAT THE AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE FOR TUCSON IS NOVEMBER
25TH SO THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RIGHT ON TIME. NO UPDATES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
CURRENTLY...FEW-SCT CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THRU 23/18Z. SURFACE
WINDS THRU 23/18Z...GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNAL...AND LESS THAN 10
KTS. THEREAFTER NW WIND INCREASING LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.