Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 142105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST FRI OCT 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to result in most clear
skies and dry weather to the region. Expect warm days and cool,
comfortable nights to prevail into next week.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure should dominate southeast Arizona
weather through early next week while active weather continues in
the Pacific Northwest. A few passing cirrus clouds from time to
time are all that could hamper ideal stargazing weather. Daytime
highs will continue to be above normal are expected, but because
of the dry airmass in place, overnight lows will be near normal or
slightly below normal.

Model differences continue with one of the systems that will
affect our friends in the northwest U.S. early next week. The GFS
continues to depict this system diving south along the front range
of the Rockies while the ECMWF moves this system much farther
east. The GFS scenario would result in a cold front backing into
SE AZ with easterly winds and cooler temperatures late next week.
A couple GFS ensemble members even indicate a bit of rain for
eastern Arizona. Meanwhile the ECMWF would essentially maintain
the status quo of mild and dry weather.

At this point, it is plausible that some semblance of low level
easterly flow finds its way through passes in SE AZ sky islands,
but am not going to count on much in the way of cooling or cloud
cover. Will have to keep an eye on how things progress this
weekend to gain confidence in the forecast for late next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
Expect clear skies below 20k ft through Saturday with surface
winds less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and low humidity levels will
prevail into early next week under high pressure aloft. Light
drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours with
generally westerly 20 foot winds of 5 to 15 mph and occasional
higher gusts during the afternoons. A backdoor cold front could
bring a period of stronger winds to southeast Arizona out of the
east during the latter half of the new work week, but model
differences concerning the westward progress of the front make
this a relatively low confidence scenario.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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