Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 231643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE LATER TODAY. WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMUP TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A LOW WEST
OF BAJA WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE IN THE
VALLEYS BY THE EVENING. THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE THE WIND GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH.

MY PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE PRECIP CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM.

THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COMPILED SOME EXCELLENT CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HERE IS A QUICK RUNDOWN BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1 INCH IN JANUARY...

TUCSON RECEIVED PRECIPITATION NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE TIME AND
EXPERIENCED TWO TOP FIVE WETTEST JANUARY DAYS.

DOUGLAS RECEIVED PRECIP NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME.

AJO RECEIVED PRECIP A LITTLE LESS FREQUENTLY AT 50 PERCENT...BUT
ALSO EXPERIENCED THE 5TH WETTEST JANUARY DAY ON RECORD.

USING THIS CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
OF COURSE...I EXPECT TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

I AM STILL NOT SOLD ON A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW...IT JUST LOOKS
LIKE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

MORE ON THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE AFTERNOON AFD.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA. EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON UP TO 20 MPH. EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL
BUILD BACK IN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS. ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK TROF MOVING THRU SRN CA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVING INTO SW AZ. FOR TODAY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WARMER TODAY WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WHILE THE VALLEYS
WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRAB
ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 25N BTWN 115W-125W
AND SPREAD INTO NORTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS PUSHING PW VALUES OVER 1" WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AT THIS
TIME...BEING MONDAY EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN
POP FIELDS BUT LIKELY STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO TWEAK
THESE VALUES. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
BUT WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE BEST AREA.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO UTAH.
AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MAY HAVE ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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