Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A decrease in thunderstorms will take place today and
continue into the weekend as the air mass over the region dries out.
As a result temperatures will climb to roughly 10 degrees warmer
than average Friday and Saturday with record high temperatures
possible both days. Monsoon moisture will then gradually return
Sunday onward for an overall increase in convection and a slight
cooling of afternoon temperatures.


.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy conditions prevailed across southeast
Arizona as of 2 am. PW values across the area this morning were
generally in the 1"-1.5" range. UofA WRF runs of NAM/GFS kinda
similar in mainly scattered mountains storms and isolated valley
storms. WRFGFS showed a bit more stronger thunderstorm outflow winds
versus WRFNAM but not a strong as to what occurred Tuesday with dust
storm move up into the Phoenix area. Will keep blowing dust out of
the forecast for now, but something for the dayshift to watch. Highs
today a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A few locals might even
flirt with near record highs today.

Still looking at a gradual drying trend next couple of days as upper
high expands over the state. Low grade monsoon conditions expected
both Friday and Saturday with daytime temperatures heating up, but
remaining below heat criteria across the lower elevations. Record
to near record highs temperatures both days.

Moisture will be on the upswing, thanks to increased thunderstorm
activity across Sonora MX, starting Sunday and continuing into the
first part of next week. High temperatures will be cooling to near
or slightly below normal levels early next week.


Few-sct clouds at 8-12k ft agl and sct-bkn clouds aoa 20k ft agl
thru 21/20z. Aft 21/20z, sct-bkn clouds at 6-9k ft agl and bkn-ovc
clouds at 10-15k ft agl. Expect isolated to scattered mostly
afternoon and evening showers/storms today. Once again, heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and some areas of blowing dust will be the
biggest concerns. The showers/storms will diminish aft 22/04Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture in place will lead to the daily cycle of
mainly afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms again today. A drying trend will then lead to reduced
coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday into this weekend.
Moisture will remain adequate for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms early next week. Outside of gusty thunderstorm
outflows, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and mostly less than
15 mph.


.CLIMATE...Record high temperatures will be approached at a few spots
today then most of the area will be at or near record highs Friday
and Saturday.


.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.



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