Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271014
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OR HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WERE OCCURRING
OVER WRN PIMA COUNTY AT 3 AM WITH THESE STORMS LIKELY MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY 430 AM. A DISTURBANCE OVER NW SONORA MEXICO LIKELY
HELPING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. FURTHER E IN NM A
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SSW ACROSS W-CENTRAL NM. THESE
STORMS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING SEVERAL AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING
WITH EVENTUAL OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS HELPING PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS AREAS TODAY WILL BE OVER S-CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY...SE PINAL AND ERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
STRETCHING SE INTO SW NM. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...BLOWING DUST AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS ARE UP TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING
VERY STRONG OUTFLOWS WILL BE GENERATE FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN ERN
PIMA COUNTY AND SENT W-NW INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND IN COORDINATION THE PHOENIX OFFICE...WILL ISSUE A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY FOR AREAS W AND NW OF TUCSON FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM. HIGH RES
MODELS REALLY HITTING S CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH
SEVERE WINDS A CONCERN THERE. A FINALLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF STORMS TODAY LIKELY GETTING A LITTLE HELP AS A
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AREA.

STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST SUNDAY THRU NEXT FRIDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS WEST OF KTUS UNTIL 27/14Z. SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA DVLPG AFT
27/17Z. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS ASSOCD WITH TSRA. LCL AREAS OF 1SM
BLDU...MAINLY W AND NW OF KTUS BTWN 27/20Z AND 28/02Z. OTRW...SFC
WIND LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH FAIRLY COMMON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS TO
PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
  AZZ502-504>505.

&&

$$

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