Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190940
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE. MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. WE
SHOULD THEN SEE A MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OR ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF
PIMA AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS RAIN AND CLOUDINESS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN IMPULSE TRACKING NORTHWARD OUT OF SONORA MEXICO. STILL
EXPECTING SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...THE COVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE UP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT NOT AS ACTIVE
AS EARLIER IN THE FIRST HALF OF JULY.

MODELS WERE STILL SUGGESTING HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH 19/14Z...MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF KTUS. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF
KSAD...AND SOUTH OF KTUS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG
TERMINALS. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA...AS
WELL AS BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS AT
8-12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND...OUTSIDE OF TSRA...WILL GENERALLY BE 12
KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...A
PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND
SAFFORD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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