Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 282100
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NEVADA WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
BEYOND...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO NORTHERN SONORA.

RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
HOWEVER...STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN TOPS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO BY LATE MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A
TROUGH BRUSHES BY NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SEVERAL
DEGREES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING
THAT TIME. DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY MORNING...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON AS GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 5-10K FT AGL FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD...AND CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL WLY/SWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THEREAFTER...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET OCCUR
EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY...
THEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BF





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