Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND FOR TUCSON AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA AS
THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SLOWLY FILLS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
SPLIT CONSOLIDATES NORTHWARD. THIS MEANS OF COURSE THAT WE ARE ABOUT
TO HEAT UP.

THE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TREND WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD AS WE SEE ONE
MORE WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION PHASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THICKNESS LINEAR
REGRESSION ANALYSIS SUPPORTS 100+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES AT
TUCSON...WITH MODEL OUTPUT LIKELY A LITTLE UNDERDONE.

DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THROUGH NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE WARMING TREND EAST OF TUCSON A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND MAY BRING A FEW BUILDUPS TO EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

AN APPROACHING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WON`T CHANGE MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PLEASE NOTE WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORING THE MORE AGGRESSVE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO LESS
FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL OUTPUT.

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF BAJA (ORGANIZING OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS) MAY END UP PLAYING A ROLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEATHER
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. IT`S WAY TO EARLY TO GET A HANDLE ON THAT...JUST
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.

IN SUMMARY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOTTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE FORECAST UP A FEW DEGREES
THROUGH THAT PERIOD AND NOW HAVE 3 100+ DEGREE DAYS FORECAST FOR
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (AND PRETTY
CLOSE SATURDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z. SKC WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 7 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS 15 TO
20 KTS NEAR KDUG AND KOLS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. SIMILAR DAYTIME WINDS
TOMORROW...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDUG AND KOLS...STARTING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER AROUND 27/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL BRING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. SLIGHTLY STRONGER S TO
SW WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH SE COCHISE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...WIND TRENDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL...WITH THE
USUAL AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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