Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 172124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2 PM PDT/MST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE HAS
WEAKENED TO JUST A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS OF 2 PM THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 31.1
N; LONGITUDE 112.7 W...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CABORCA MEXICO AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST SONORA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MUCH
OF OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
INCLUDES THE TUCSON METRO...THE EAST SIDE OF THE CATALINAS AND
RINCONS AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A COUPLE
OF SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT WILL EXPIRE
SHORTLY. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AND
CONTINUE THE JOURNEY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY THROUGH 5
PM MST AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE NORTH INTO ARIZONA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS EXTENDED FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GRAHAM
COUNTY...JUST WEST OF THE SAFFORD AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE TOWN OF
PIMA. REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS INDICATED
THAT HEAVY RAIN WAS IMPACTING ASH CREEK RESULTING IN ROAD
CLOSURES...WITH A FEW HOMES IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. THIS
HIGH WATER AND RESULTING FLASH FLOODING WAS DUE TO OVER 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE BULK OF THAT FELL WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 530 PM MST
THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS THE NEED ARISES FOR US TO EXTEND THE WARNING
EVEN FURTHER.

THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES
THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TUCSON AREA NEAR SELLS BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION...INCLUDING
TUCSON...NOGALES AND AREAS TO THE EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST OF THIS CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MODELS
ARE CONTINUING THE INDICATE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HEAVY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO OVER 4 INCHES
FOR TUCSON...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE 12Z NAM12 WAS THE
OUTLIER WITH A BULLSEYE OF 4.5 INCHES...WHEREAS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWED VALUES RANGING FROM 2.0-3.0 INCHES. OUR OFFICIAL QPF FORECAST
FALLS WITHIN THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE RANGE. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND INTO COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
WITH STORM TOTAL VALUES RANGING FROM PERHAPS 3 TO 5 INCHES AND NEAR
6 TO 8 INCHES FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS. EXPECT TO SEE THE BULK
OF THE HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. BY THAT
TIME...LINGERING MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THIS GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
FLOODING ON CREEKS AND WASHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE GILA...SAN PEDRO AND SANTA CRUZ AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS THE GILA RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH BANKFULL OR EVEN FLOOD
STAGE. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS THE REMAINS OF ODILE PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TODAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH BY MID
MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE IMPROVING.  SURFACE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 12 TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN EASING AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.  STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR
AND EAST OF TUCSON.  EXPECT LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ501>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA
HYDROLOGY...BOYLE





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