Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 071001
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS IN DEFORMATION REGION AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE
CARVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE...(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.45 TO 1.7 INCH
RANGE)...THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A CONCERN ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST STORMS. WE WILL
ALSO PROBABLY LOSE SOME OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS AS STORMS TEND
TO BOTH LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INITIATE NEW ACTIVITY ALONG PREVIOUS
OUTFLOWS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.

WE SHOULD TREND DOWN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COMPARED TO EARLIER IN
THE WEEK AS WE SEE A DOWN DAY OR TWO AFTER ALL THE ACTIVITY AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FEATURE AS IT ROTATES NORTHWEST OF US.
PREVIOUSLY WE WERE THINKING WE MIGHT DRY OUT A BIT AS WELL...BUT
LATEST ECMWF TRENDS KEEP SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH A DECENT SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PERHAPS NOT QUITE TO CURRENT LEVELS
WHICH ARE RUNNING AROUND 150 PERCENT OF CLIMO...BUT PROBABLY STILL
ENOUGH TO DO THE JOB. AFTER THE OBLIGATORY RELATIVELY DOWN DAY OR
TWO WE SHOULD AT LEAST HOP BACK TO SOMETHING NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF SHOWERS SE OF KTUS WILL DIMINISH THRU 07/13Z AS
THEY MOVE TO THE S-SE. SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE AROUND BTWN 07/19Z
AND 08/04Z WITH LCL MVFR CONDS NR +TSRA. CLOUD BASES MOSTLY IN THE
8-13 KFT AGL WITH LCLY LWR CONDS NEAR +TSRA. SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT NR TSRA OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY ACTIVE
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE VERY MOIST...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. DAILY CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UNDER AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.