Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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527
FXUS65 KTWC 020423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES CLEARING OUT NICELY THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.  OF INTEREST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH RECENTLY PASSED
ACROSS SILVER CITY.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT QUITE WELL.  PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE TO SET UP AN EASTERLY BREEZE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVERNIGHT ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE
FAVORED AREAS (FOR EASTERLY WINDS) REACH 15 MPH OR SO AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR MONDAY THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES WESTERLY AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE.  WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND PROXIMITY
TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH THERE STILL REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY.  OTHERWISE DRY AND A BIT WARMER.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY THE SETTLE BACK A BIT THURSDAY.

THE COOLING ON THURSDAY IS THE RESULT OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL SPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
GETTING RATHER WINDY FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLOWING DUST ISSUES ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
FRIDAY AND STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS THE STORM SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS HERE
AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCT 8-12K FT AGL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA/-TSRA FOR THE WHITE MTNS.  N TO NW SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT BECOMING EASTERLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WEST TO TUCSON AFT 02/06Z.  WIND BECOMING LIGHT NW AGAIN
AFTER 02/20Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.  AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

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