Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 142154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Near record heat will continue through Thursday thanks to
high pressure lingering over Mexico. A dry weather system will pass
across the region Friday into Friday night with the main result
being cooler, but still warmer than average temperatures Friday into
next week.


.DISCUSSION...The broken record continues, warm and dry through
Thursday with record or near record high temperatures thanks to an upper
level high pressure system over Mexico.

For an interesting tidbit, our Thursday`s forecast high for Tucson
is 88, one degree away from the record high while back in 1958 on
November 16th Tucson received 6.4 inches of snow. A bit tough to
imagine at the moment.

A system passing by to the north later Friday will allow for about
3-5 degrees of cooling in the afternoon with a bit of mid and high
clouds later in the day and a light breeze. Not much hope for any
rain with this system however even cooler but still warmer than
average temperatures will follow through the weekend.

For early next week deterministic runs of the models diverge
significantly for Monday and Tuesday. The GFS and nearly all its 12Z
ensemble members point to a ridge over the area along with the vast
majority of the Canadian ensemble members. The ECMWF moves an upper
trough across the area. While I love the idea of a trough,
persistence and strong ensemble support means the upper ridge will
likely rule. Thus I have leaned toward keeping temperatures around 10
degrees warmer than average early next week which still may not be
warm enough.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 15/18Z.
Mainly SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL through Wednesday. Light SFC
winds except WLY-NWLY winds around 5-12 kts during the afternoons.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Hot (for November) and dry will continue through
Thursday. A dry weather system will pass by later Friday meaning
temperatures will not be as hot but still about 10 degrees warmer
than normal with a 12-18 mph W-NW breeze across parts of zones 152 &
153. Then we are back to tranquil, warm and dry weather for the
weekend onward.




FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

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